# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2) **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\ **Created:** [October 29, 2022, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972 "2022-10-29T17:49:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 196
**Author:** ![scudsucker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scudsucker/32/14101_2.png) [@scudsucker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scudsucker)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2023, 7:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/3989 "2023-05-15T07:23:37Z")
> [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > Chances are that they have a few prototypes From [this article](https://www.army-technology.com/projects/marker-anti-tank-ugv-russia/), it seems you are correct. > [@](#): > > In February 2023, four Marker robots were deployed in Russia’s special operation zone in Ukraine ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2023, 9:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/3990 "2023-05-15T09:49:35Z")
At some point, [the head of the Wagner Group offered to reveal Russian positions in exchange for Bakhmut.](https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/Ukraine-war-Free-to-read/Ukraine-latest-Wagner-chief-offered-Ukraine-Russian-troop-locations-report) Those Discord leaks are a gift that keeps giving. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2023, 11:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/3991 "2023-05-15T11:45:52Z")
I was already of the opinion that Prigozhin is unlikely to survive the war. This makes me think it’s even less likely. I think his only chance is to surrender his units and hope for both asylum and to be given a secret identity (witness protection style) somewhere in the west. Even that is obviously unlikely. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2023, 11:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/3992 "2023-05-15T11:49:02Z")
Wagner forces are apparently doing a lot of merc jobs in parts of Africa. He could move down there and play kingmaker. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2023, 11:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/3993 "2023-05-15T11:50:42Z")
First he has to get out of Bakhmut. There’s no way Putin lets him leave to the east, an only slightly more likely Zelensky lets him leave to the west. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2023, 11:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/3994 "2023-05-15T11:52:24Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > only slightly more likely Zelensky lets him leave to the west. I don’t know, having him publicly bug out to Africa rather than continue doing Putin’s dirty work would be a hell of a propaganda coup. ---
**Author:** ![smithsb](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smithsb/32/12107_2.png) [@smithsb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smithsb)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2023, 12:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/3995 "2023-05-15T12:48:37Z")
I believe sledgehammering a POW makes him ineligible to go to the west. He has a pile of other war crimes stretching across multiple continents. Putin’s head on a platter wouldn’t save him from trial/assassination. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2023, 1:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/3996 "2023-05-15T13:15:52Z")
Zelensky seems to be improving at diplomacy. He’s visited Germany, France, and now the UK. The UK is sending more long range drones and missiles to Ukraine. Ukraine is getting quite an arsenal. Link [UK pledges more weapons for Ukraine as Zelenskiy meets Sunak at Chequers | Defence policy | The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/15/volodymyr-zelenskiy-to-meet-rishi-sunak-in-london-on-monday) > [@](#): > > The spokesperson said: “There are no plans [to send military jets to Ukraine. The Ukrainians made the decision to train their pilots on F-16 jets – you know the RAF don’t use those … Subsequent to our original announcements, the Ukrainians made clear they wish to use F-16s.” > > I understand it’s not practical to train and support multiple types of planes. > > Sunak said after the meeting that the UK would focus instead on helping to train Ukrainian pilots. “We are going to be a key part of the coalition of countries that provides that support to Volodymyr and Ukraine,” he said. > > The UK also announced further military aid for Ukraine in the form of hundreds of air defence missiles and long-range attack drones with a range of more than 200km. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2023, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/3997 "2023-05-15T13:19:10Z")
> [@smithsb](#): > > I believe sledgehammering a POW makes him ineligible to go to the west. He has a pile of other war crimes stretching across multiple continents. Putin’s head on a platter wouldn’t save him from trial/assassination. I agree. I also posit that Putin made sure that he and his men committed crimes like that for this exact reason. ---
**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2023, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/3998 "2023-05-15T14:07:12Z")
Ukrainian artillery has done amazingly well but the battlefield is still unforgiving of complacency or inertia. If you keep shooting and don’t scoot often enough, even Russian command and control can figure out how to order a counterbattery attack. Oryx analysis estimates that the Ukranians have lost about 1/3 of their towed M777 guns and perhaps 20% of rheir M109 and AHS Krab self-propelled artillery pieces, apparently because they’re being set up in fixed firebases which are easy to counterfire. > **[Russia Hits Immobile And Predictable M-777, AHS Krab, And M-109 Howitzers Hard](https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2023/05/14/russia-hits-immobile-and-predictable-m-777-krab-and-m-109-howitzers-hard/amp/)** > > With Russia hitting more than 30% of Ukraine's NATO-standard M-777 guns, the fight to save Ukraine suggests that, on the modern battlefield, unpredictable mobility is life. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2023, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/3999 "2023-05-15T16:27:55Z")
UK has committed to begin training Ukrainian pilots on the F-16 this summer. I’d guess that would also include training maintenance crews. Its going to take time to build a modern Air Force for Ukraine. This is an encouraging first step. @LSLGuy How would training pilots work? Would they build flight time by flying with NATO squadrons? You can only learn so much in a simulator? Guardian > [@](#): > > Zelenskiy met prime minister **Rishi Sunak** at the British leader’s Chequers country residence, where the pair also discussed Ukraine’s request for western fighter jets. > > Britain said it would begin basic training of Ukrainian pilots this summer “hand in hand with UK efforts to work with other countries on providing F-16 jets”. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2023, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4000 "2023-05-15T17:08:34Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > @LSLGuy > How would training pilots work? Would they build flight time by flying with NATO squadrons? You can only learn so much in a simulator? > Guardian Darn good question. In my era taking a USAF pilot who was new to fighters to fully qualified in the F-16 took 6-7 months. Somebody experienced and current in a different USAF fighter could do it in 4 months. That was in a location with no weather challenges. I did this before combat-level realistic simulation had been invented. Sims then were good for learning to operate the airplane, practicing instrument flying, and practicing emergencies. So enough to make one a qualified safe ferry pilot in whichever jet, but not to use it to fight. Nowadays combat-level sims are available although where and in what quantity I have no idea. I do know that right now overall USAF has very little spare training capacity; in fact they’re short of pilots for lack of ability to train them. I don’t know much about NATO training capacity, but at least some of it is done at USAF bases too, mostly for the better weather than European gloom. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2023, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4001 "2023-05-15T17:19:24Z")
Thank you @LSLGuy I remember News references to foreign military pilots training in the US. Here’s one. The US Air Force program trained 30 Afghan pilots and 70 maintenance technicians. It was ended and pilot training responsibility shifted back to Afghanistan. I see your point that a lot depends on the flight experience of the foreign pilots. Ukraine may not have many they can spare from supporting the war. Link [Air Force Ends Program That Trained Afghan Pilots to Fly the A-29 Super Tucano](https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/11/19/air-force-ends-program-trained-afghan-pilots-fly-29-super-tucano.html) ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2023, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4002 "2023-05-15T22:30:09Z")
I’m still not sure why Prigozhin hasn’t turned his troops around to march on Moscow. I’m not sure that Putin has anyone who can stop him: If he did, they’d be in Ukraine, too. And even if there is, you’d have to think that his chances would be better against them than against Ukraine. Is Prigozhin wearing a remote-controlled explosive collar, or something? I mean, that’s the sort of Bond villain stunt that Putin would pull, but… ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2023, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4003 "2023-05-15T22:31:39Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > I’m still not sure why Prigozhin hasn’t turned his troops around to march on Moscow. Because if you come at the king, you’d best not miss. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2023, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4004 "2023-05-15T22:48:56Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > I’m still not sure why Prigozhin hasn’t turned his troops around to march on Moscow. I’m not sure that Putin has anyone who can stop him: If he did, they’d be in Ukraine, too. Actually, I’m pretty sure that there are plenty of Russian troops and militia still inside Russia, which will never be deployed to the front for this very reason. Most of the National Guard, I think, has been kept back. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2023, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4005 "2023-05-15T23:13:08Z")
Maj Gen Igor Kornet had a very bad hair day. > **[Explosion in Luhansk barber shop leaves Russian-appointed official wounded –...](https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2023/may/15/explosion-in-luhansk-barber-shop-leaves-russian-appointed-official-wounded-video)** > > An explosion in the Russian-occupied city of Luhansk has left a Putin-appointed official seriously wounded ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2023, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4006 "2023-05-16T01:28:20Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > I’m still not sure why Prigozhin hasn’t turned his troops around to march on Moscow. I’m not sure that Putin has anyone who can stop him: > [@Alessan](#): > > Actually, I’m pretty sure that there are plenty of Russian troops and militia still inside Russia, which will never be deployed to the front for this very reason. Most of the National Guard, I think, has been kept back. Yup. The [Rosgvardiya](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Guard_of_Russia) is a genuine Praetorian Guard of the sort all good autocrats demand. While elements of it has been in combat here and there, purportedly since Oct of 2022 the full [ODON](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Separate_Operational_Purpose_Division) division has been squatting balefully in Moscow, guarding against internal dissent. Anyway, Wagner isn’t a fully functional army - it’s mostly merc light infantry that were intended to fight against outmatched opposition in the developing world. And Russia is really fucking big. Bakhmut is 600 miles from Moscow, more than enough time and space for the Russian army and air force (Wagner doesn’t have the IADS that Ukraine possesses) to flatten his toy army. Ukraine would be thrilled, because that would be some instant gain. But Prigozhin would be quickly dead. If he ended up in a serious pissing contest with Putin his only real hope would be a backroom coup, not banging heads in a very likely doomed armed confrontation. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2023, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4007 "2023-05-16T03:09:46Z")
The mumblings on twitter are that the missile attack on Kyiv tonight got a Patriot battery. We’ll see. ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2023, 8:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4008 "2023-05-16T08:43:46Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > UK has committed to begin training Ukrainian pilots on the F-16 this summer. I’d guess that would also include training maintenance crews. I’ve read about the UK offering to train Ukrainian pilots on the F-16. I’ve also read that the RAF doesn’t fly F-16s. I don’t quite get how this will work Sure, the Brits could borrow some F-16s, I guess. But do they have instructors who can train for that fighter type? If so, why? Is the answer: “…something, something, something, NATO”? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972.md?page=195) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972.md?page=197)