# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2)

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972>\
**Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\
**Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\
**Created:** [October 29, 2022, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972 "2022-10-29T17:49:40Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 197

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**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\
**Post date:** [May 16, 2023, 8:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4009 "2023-05-16T08:57:51Z")

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Ukraine is reporting they shot down all 18 attacking missiles and drones and that all the damage from falling debris was minor.

> **[Ukraine war: Kyiv hit by 'exceptionally dense' missile and drone attack](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65606385)**
>
> It is the eighth time Ukraine's capital has been targeted by Russia so far this month.

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**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\
**Post date:** [May 16, 2023, 10:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4010 "2023-05-16T10:32:47Z")

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> [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](#):
>
> I’ve read about the UK offering to train Ukrainian pilots on the F-16. I’ve also read that the RAF doesn’t fly F-16s. I don’t quite get how this will work

It seems there was already a commitment to help with training in “standard NATO techniques”, which seems to imply something short of needing the specific type of plane.

> **[UK pledges more weapons for Ukraine as Zelenskiy meets Sunak at Chequers](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/15/volodymyr-zelenskiy-to-meet-rishi-sunak-in-london-on-monday)**
>
> Ukrainian president says he talked to UK PM about western allies providing a ‘coalition of jets’ for war effort

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**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\
**Post date:** [May 16, 2023, 11:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4011 "2023-05-16T11:16:32Z")

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Smaller news, but [Belarus’s President Lukashenko is reportedly quite ill](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/15/photo-of-belaruss-lukashenko-published-after-rumours-over-health). if he dies, does Putin just do a “soft annex” of the whole country, or is it more useful as an “allied but independent” country? I don’t see the immediate advantage in the Ukraine War to taking Belarus. He already has it, really.

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**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\
**Post date:** [May 16, 2023, 12:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4012 "2023-05-16T12:00:59Z")

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I’m seeing multiple videos showing explosions on the ground after lots of SAM launches. Might be a different city at a different time, but I’m skeptical of that. Ukraine lies too. We’ll eventually get more information.

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**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\
**Post date:** [May 16, 2023, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4013 "2023-05-16T14:11:42Z")

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> [@Love\_Rhombus](#):
>
> Smaller news, but [Belarus’s President Lukashenko is reportedly quite ill](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/15/photo-of-belaruss-lukashenko-published-after-rumours-over-health). if he dies, does Putin just do a “soft annex” of the whole country, or is it more useful as an “allied but independent” country? I don’t see the immediate advantage in the Ukraine War to taking Belarus. He already has it, really.

I suppose that depends a lot on who appears as the heir apparent and what that person does in the first week or so. Also on how the populace reacts. Putin certainly has his men high up in their government and they have at least the outlines of a response plan for this eventuality. And have had for years.

Like Putin, Lukashenko has tried very hard to kill all aspects of “civil society”. It remains to be seen if the Belarussian populace is eager to join Russia’s version of the future or Ukraine’s version. The Belarussian military & security apparatus are semi-separate power centers that will have their own opinions as well.

Had Putin never started the war in Ukraine it seems likely to me that post-Lukashenko Belarus would have leaned towards Moscow. Now, there’s a huge wildcard in the middle of the pile. We’ve certainly seen the various 'Stans drift away from Moscow’s orbit as the immediately post-Soviet dictators have aged out. It’s a gingerly movement, but it’s unmistakable which way they’re going.

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**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\
**Post date:** [May 16, 2023, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4014 "2023-05-16T14:45:34Z")

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Ryan (retired military) comments on the destroyed Patriot battery rumor. He points out it consists of several elements spread out over several kilometers. What does a claim of destruction mean? What allegedly got destroyed?

More news should be available in the next few days.

Youtube short. A couple minutes long.

[![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/dwWjIROAAYk/maxresdefault.jpg "Was a Patriot Missile System Destroyed in Ukraine?") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwWjIROAAYk)

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**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\
**Post date:** [May 16, 2023, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4015 "2023-05-16T15:27:11Z")

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> [@Love\_Rhombus](#):
>
> I don’t see the immediate advantage in the Ukraine War to taking Belarus. He already has it, really.

He already _had_ Ukraine before Yanukovych was removed. If Lukashenko dies, we’ll see what lesson Putin took from that.

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**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\
**Post date:** [May 16, 2023, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4016 "2023-05-16T18:02:50Z")

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> [@gnoitall](#):
>
> Oryx analysis estimates that the Ukranians have lost about 1/3 of their towed M777 guns and perhaps 20% of rheir M109 and AHS Krab self-propelled artillery pieces, apparently because they’re being set up in fixed firebases which are easy to counterfire.

That’s about the numbers one could expect for typical losses over 14 months of combat. Thing is, the Ukrainians appear to be learning their lessons, and while Russia has certainly made its own adaptations, they don’t seem to be keeping pace with Ukraine’s capacity and willingness to learn from their mistakes. Ruskies seem to want to keep repeating the same mistakes over and over. It may be baked into their organizational mindset.

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**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\
**Post date:** [May 16, 2023, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4017 "2023-05-16T18:14:40Z")

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I wonder if we need an international news discussion thread? Because this bit could be tied to Ukraine or not at all: [The CIA wants Russians to contact them with any useful information](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/16/cia-urges-russians-to-get-in-touch-moscow-puts-spies-on-alert). If nothing else, it will make Putin more paranoid.

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**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\
**Post date:** [May 16, 2023, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4018 "2023-05-16T18:21:37Z")

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For some reason the link isn’t working for me. I found another link that does here:

[CIA posts video asking Russians to share secrets with U.S. spies (nbcnews.com)](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/cia-posts-video-asking-russians-share-secrets-us-spies-rcna84595)

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**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\
**Post date:** [May 16, 2023, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4019 "2023-05-16T18:23:07Z")

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Ah, I messed it up in editing! Thanks for the heads up, it should work now, but thanks for yours as well.

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**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\
**Post date:** [July 20, 2023, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4020 "2023-07-20T15:26:27Z")

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A post was merged into an existing topic: [Ivan\_Denisovich Troll posts](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan-denisovich-troll-posts/987306/21)

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**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\
**Post date:** [May 16, 2023, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4021 "2023-05-16T20:12:19Z")

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The UK prime minister is making progress on the F-16 coalition. The US needs to get on board.

Link [UK and Netherlands agree ‘international coalition’ to help Ukraine procure F-16 jets | Ukraine | The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/16/uk-and-netherlands-agree-international-coalition-to-help-ukraine-with-f-16-jets)

> [@](#):
>
> The UK prime minister [Rishi Sunak](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/rishi-sunak) and Dutch leader Mark Rutte have agreed to build an “international coalition” to help procure F-16 fighter jets for Ukraine, the British government has announced.
> 
> A Downing Street spokesperson said Sunak and Rutte “would work to build an international coalition to provide [Ukraine](https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) with combat air capabilities, supporting with everything from training to procuring F-16 jets”.  
> (Snip, Snip)  
> Both countries will have to persuade the US if Ukraine is to receive F-16s. Asked later on Monday if the US had changed its position on supplying the jets to Ukraine, John Kirby, a spokesperson for the White House’s national security council, gave a one-word reply: “No.”

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**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\
**Post date:** [May 16, 2023, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4022 "2023-05-16T20:49:16Z")

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How much would fighter jets help Ukraine, realistically? I thought the main problem with air power in this war is that both sides are too effective at air defense.

If we waved a magic wand and Ukraine had a nice stockpile of F16s right now, and plenty of pilots to fly them, would they be using them or would Russian air defense be too strong?

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**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\
**Post date:** [May 16, 2023, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4023 "2023-05-16T20:53:26Z")

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You’d probably see a lot more JDAM chucking, but F16s aren’t made to penetrate air defense.

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**Author:** ![smithsb](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smithsb/32/12107_2.png) [@smithsb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smithsb)\
**Post date:** [May 16, 2023, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4024 "2023-05-16T22:59:33Z")

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A more important element, most F-16s have better radar that what Ukraine has in its aircraft. Better for hunting incoming cruise missiles, drones and any aircraft entering their territory. Also, access to a full array of western missiles and smart bombs. These have greater range than their existing (dwindling) stocks of Soviet/Russian systems. Capabilities include updating target information while airborne, beyond visual range intercept missiles, better all-weather capability for sensors. Defensive measures are also improved and upgradable. The older Soviet/Russian aircraft - no.

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**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\
**Post date:** [May 17, 2023, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4025 "2023-05-17T00:34:16Z")

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> [@Snarky\_Kong](#):
>
> You’d probably see a lot more JDAM chucking, but F16s aren’t made to penetrate air defense.

Actually, the F-16 is the current platform for Wild Weasel (SEAD) in the US.

> **[Wild Weasel | Current](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_Weasel#Current)**
>
> A change in aircraft design theory to stress versatile multi-role aircraft meant that the F-4G Phantom was the last aircraft in the USAF inventory specifically outfitted for the SEAD role. The Wild Weasel mission is now assigned to the F-16 Fighting Falcon, using the Block 50 and Block 52, with production beginning in 1991. The single-seat Block 50/52 F-16C is specifically tasked with this mission and aircraft modified for this mission are designated F-16CJ/DJ. The pilot now performs both the rol...

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**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\
**Post date:** [May 17, 2023, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4026 "2023-05-17T00:37:50Z")

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Thanks.

I guess I was just thinking about it lacking stealth characteristics vs the F35.

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**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\
**Post date:** [May 17, 2023, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4027 "2023-05-17T00:57:02Z")

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It does lack stealth, plus it is a particular variant (the F-16CJ/DJ) and the F-35 is going to replace it eventually - all variants of the F-35 can carry the HARM missiles. I’m not sure of when that replacement is going to be complete, though.

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**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\
**Post date:** [May 17, 2023, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4028 "2023-05-17T01:48:51Z")

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Well, part of the Patriot system did get damaged. Hopefully it can be repaired in place.

> **[US assessing potential damage of Patriot missile defense system following...](https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/16/politics/patriot-missile-damage-ukraine/index.html)**
>
> A US-made Patriot air defense system was likely damaged, but not destroyed, as the result of a Russian missile barrage in and around Kyiv early Tuesday morning local time, a US official tells CNN.

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