# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2)

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972>\
**Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\
**Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\
**Created:** [October 29, 2022, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972 "2022-10-29T17:49:40Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 205

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**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\
**Post date:** [May 26, 2023, 11:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4173 "2023-05-26T11:56:21Z")

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> [@aceplace57](#):
>
> I wonder where the Wagner group will deploy next? What’s the next city they’ll reduce to rubble? I would expect they’ll use the same tactics as Bakhmut. They’ll use himan wave attacks until they slowly overrun the Ukrainians. Doesn’t matter if it takes 10 months and 20,000 dead Wagner fighters.

My guess is this is the last one. Given the things Prigozhin has said, he’s not safe going back to Russia to be redeployed. I assume the only reason nothing has been done about him yet is that Putin’s personal goons won’t go into Bakhmut to “take care of him” for fear of their own lives. Ironically he‘s safer in Bakhmut than he would be in Russia. So my guess is he tries to find a way out, maybe via Mariupol, then by sea to Africa.

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**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\
**Post date:** [May 26, 2023, 12:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4174 "2023-05-26T12:26:57Z")

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> [@FlikTheBlue](#):
>
> My guess is this is the last one.

I too suspect that Russia no longer can afford to engage in future offensive operations at that scale. I recall reading recently that current estimates put the number of Russian tanks and Ukrainian tanks in theater at near parity. After receiving months of military equipment infusions and training from the West, we’re going to see the return of maneuver warfare very shortly and that bodes ill for Russia.

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**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\
**Post date:** [May 26, 2023, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4175 "2023-05-26T14:16:56Z")

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[Russian missiles struck a hospital in Ukraine](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/5/26/russia-ukraine-live-one-killed-in-dnipro-attack-says-zelenskyy) and [an urepaired dam that is under Russian control has caused flooding in part of southern Ukraine.](https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2023/5/25/damage-to-russian-occupied-dam-floods-ukrainian-island-community).

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**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\
**Post date:** [May 26, 2023, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4176 "2023-05-26T15:05:32Z")

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Spain is a relatively small country. They’re doing a lot to help Ukraine. They’ve already trained 1500 Ukrainians for the military.

Spain doesn’t use F-16’s and can’t help with that need.

> **[Spain will provide Ukraine with 4 more Leopard 2 tanks](https://news.yahoo.com/spain-ukraine-4-more-leopard-223608823.html)**
>
> Spain plans to transfer four more Leopard 2 tanks and a batch of M113 armoured personnel carriers to Ukraine. Source: Ukrinform, citing Spanish Defence Minister Margarita Robles Details: It was reported that Margarita Robles talked during the meeting...

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**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\
**Post date:** [May 26, 2023, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4177 "2023-05-26T17:51:22Z")

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> [@aceplace57](#):
>
> Spain is a relatively small country.

Eh. They’re the 6th largest economy in Europe, 7th largest by population. Among European countries, they’re definitely not small, and at 26th most giving by GDP I’d argue they’re not doing that much to help.

Now, they’re less likely to be threatened than Poland or Estonia and their having economic issues, so I get it, but it’s not due to their size.

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**Author:** ![smithsb](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smithsb/32/12107_2.png) [@smithsb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smithsb)\
**Post date:** [May 26, 2023, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4178 "2023-05-26T20:57:45Z")

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> [@aceplace57](#):
>
> [Spain will provide Ukraine with 4 more Leopard 2 tanks](https://news.yahoo.com/spain-ukraine-4-more-leopard-223608823.html)

Same group as originally promised. These latest four were the last of the promised ten. They needed substantial refurbishment.

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**Author:** ![Monty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monty/32/47_2.png) [@Monty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monty)\
**Post date:** [May 27, 2023, 4:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4179 "2023-05-27T04:59:43Z")

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> [@Tamerlane](#):
>
> Pedantry, but Colonel-General is a very senior rank roughly equivalent to a U.S. Lieutenant-General (i.e. three star), way above a mere Colonel. There aren’t a ton of them.

And I just discovered there is such a rank as [lieutenant colonel general](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lieutenant_colonel_general).

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**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\
**Post date:** [May 27, 2023, 5:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4180 "2023-05-27T05:45:11Z")

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> [@Monty](#):
>
> And I just discovered there is such a rank as [lieutenant colonel general](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lieutenant_colonel_general).

It’s not as catchy as a modern major general, though.

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**Author:** ![Monty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monty/32/47_2.png) [@Monty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monty)\
**Post date:** [May 27, 2023, 9:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4181 "2023-05-27T09:41:45Z")

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[…](https://www.soundsnap.com/applause_from_a_small_group_with_a_polite_golf_clap_stereo)

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**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\
**Post date:** [May 28, 2023, 7:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4182 "2023-05-28T07:22:44Z")

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Ukraine is increasing their missile and drone attacks. Wiping out Russian supplies and troops.

The transcript is helpful if watching video is a problem. Click more under the description and show transcript.

[![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/RBLeHGBH--A/maxresdefault.jpg "27 May: ALL WEAPONS UNLEASHED: Ukrainians Conduct AN EXTENSIVE STRIKE | War in Ukraine Explained") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBLeHGBH--A)

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**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\
**Post date:** [May 28, 2023, 7:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4183 "2023-05-28T07:44:01Z")

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[President of Belarus hospitalised after meeting with Putin]([https://President](https://President) of Belarus hospitalised after meeting with Putin)

**Source:** Tsepkalo on [Telegram](https://t.me/valerytsepkalo/6645)

**Quote:**"According to the information we have, which needs additional confirmation, Lukashenko, after meeting with Putin behind closed doors, was urgently taken to the Central Clinical Hospital of Moscow, where he is now located. The best specialists were sent to return him from a condition assessed by doctors as critical. [His - ed.] blood was purified, Lukashenko’s condition was proclaimed not transportable.

If I was a Belarus politician the next meeting with Putin would be handled through diplomatic channels with the Putin assassination committee. Their office is on the 10th floor.

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**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\
**Post date:** [May 28, 2023, 10:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4184 "2023-05-28T10:28:28Z")

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Apparently Russia [“hasn’t just started yet to act very seriously,”](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-65720980) according to Russia’s ambassador to the UK. So they’ve just been fooling around up till now?

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**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\
**Post date:** [May 28, 2023, 12:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4185 "2023-05-28T12:45:37Z")

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> [@Love\_Rhombus](#):
>
> So they’ve just been fooling around up till now?

“We’re not even trying!”

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**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\
**Post date:** [May 28, 2023, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4186 "2023-05-28T12:58:42Z")

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Sounds like a clear threat to go nuclear.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\
**Post date:** [May 28, 2023, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4187 "2023-05-28T15:47:05Z")

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> [@gnoitall](#):
>
> “We’re not even trying!”

The appear to be dead serious about not trying.

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**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\
**Post date:** [May 28, 2023, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4188 "2023-05-28T16:58:43Z")

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> [@Magiver](#):
>
> [President of Belarus hospitalised after meeting with Putin]([https://President](https://President) of Belarus hospitalised after meeting with Putin)

So… This does not bode well. Particularly since Belarus is now going to be housing tactical nuclear weapons. It sounds very much like Putin is going to order nukes to be used against Ukraine as a last ditch effort to “win” his war. I wonder if perhaps Lukashenko told Putin he could put the missiles in Belarus, but would not authorize their use unless attacked. And Putin needs to put a different, more compliant stooge in place. Because Putin wants the nukes to come from Belarus soil, not from Russia itself.

It’s not going to end well, for him, for Ukraine, for Russia and for the world if this is how things escalate.

“Do you want WW III? Because this is how you get WW III.”

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\
**Post date:** [May 28, 2023, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4190 "2023-05-28T17:02:38Z")

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Before this hijack starts again …

Threads for speculation about Russia using Nuclear weapons.

> [@Outcome of nuclear escalation and general Nuclear concerns Ukraine - Russia](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302):
>
> As if Putin needs a reason to use nukes. If it were a first strike, it would have to be brutal. Like old west gunfighters, you better kill that guy with your first bullet or he will kill you with his. If Vlad felt the need to nuke someone, he would have to nuke everyone, hard, because once he launches, he absolutely knows he will get hit back harder, or at least as hard as the other guys are capable of. And with Tridents browsing about out there, he cannot knock the other guys completely. H…

> [@Russian Use of Nuclear Weapons and Response rgd Ukraine](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russian-use-of-nuclear-weapons-and-response-rgd-ukraine/972339):
>
> Note to all - I’m putting this here as it’s inherently subjective (at this time) and not quite a fit for P&E. I also noted and thought about bumping “[Imagine you are president and Putin nukes Kyiv](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/imagine-you-are-president-and-putin-nukes-kyiv/961809)” that @Hari_Seldon started, but find the situation is quite different 6 months down the line. Specifically two recent articles made me re-examine my prior skepticism on if even Putin would use nuclear weapons in the Ukraine theater. For the record, I still lean towards unlikely, but I’m far from my …

> [@Will Russia go nuclear if they lose the conventional war?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-russia-go-nuclear-if-they-lose-the-conventional-war/961624):
>
> With the sinking of a Russian cargo / transport ship, and the gains made by Ukraine around Kyiv, it feels like the war has possibly reached a turning point in Ukraine’s favor. Let’s assume this is the case, and over the next few months Russia loses the ground it has taken inside Ukraine. Would this trigger a nuclear attack by Putin? I’ll lay out some specific scenarios to consider. Ukraine regains most or all of their territory other than Luhansk and Donetsk. The above plus retaking Lu…

## Please take such speculation to one of those thread and no more in this one.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\
**Post date:** [May 28, 2023, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4192 "2023-05-28T17:18:55Z")

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> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#):
>
> I wonder if perhaps Lukashenko told Putin he could put the missiles in Belarus, but would not authorize their use unless attacked. And Putin needs to put a different, more compliant stooge in place

…or…and I know this sounds crazy…maybe, just maybe Lukashenko has a cold.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\
**Post date:** [May 28, 2023, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4193 "2023-05-28T17:31:43Z")

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> **Summary**
>
> > [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#):
> >
> > So… This does not bode well.
> 
> It’s more chaos and has the potential to go seriously pear-shaped for all involved. Russia no more believes in Belarus’ existence as an independent country than they do Ukraine’s, they just have been content for now with a puppet-state. Lukashenko has hand-picked successors in place, but whether Putin lets them take over is an open question. Another “referendum to rejoin Russia” is something Putin and the other hyper-nationalists are gong to consider…
> 
> If such a thing were to happen everything gets complicated. Does Belarus largely roll-over? Then Ukraine’s military situation becomes more complicated. Does Belarus not roll-over? Then Russia’s military situation becomes more complicated. And there are a thousand permutations in between.Regardless, Belarus itself would become an even more unhappy place to be than it has been.
> 
> Bizarrely Lukashenko’s death could be a huge mess for everybody.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\
**Post date:** [May 28, 2023, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4194 "2023-05-28T17:31:50Z")

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> **Summary**
>
> > [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](#):
> >
> > maybe, just maybe Lukashenko has a cold.
> 
> One is generally not taken to hospital and given a blood transfusion for a cold.
> 
> IF the rumours about his treatment are correct.

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