# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2) **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\ **Created:** [October 29, 2022, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972 "2022-10-29T17:49:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 219
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2023, 11:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4455 "2023-06-12T11:44:01Z")
> [@Machine\_Elf](#): > > > [@LSLGuy](#): > > > > Sabotage, factory hacking _a la_ StuxNet, or simple craptacular manufacturing? > > There’s the old saw, “never attribute to malice that which can be attributed to stupidity.” Sabotage is hard; skipping quality control because you’re short of money, time, or concern for life/limb is really easy. I totally grant that. What I wonder about is what sort of manufacturing defect produces an e.g. simple artillery shell that detonates just sitting there or that detonates upon firing in the gun. Badly made or badly stored explosives that are inherently (or become over time) shock or heat sensitive are one candidate. OTOH, shelf-stable “safe” explosives have been a solved problem since about 1940. Better-solved today, but WWII artillery shells didn’t have this problem (when fresh). Otherwise I’m in a quandry as to what could cause a basic unfuzed shell to explode. I don’t know anything about the details of Russian artillery shell fuzing, but at least for US mechanical fuzes, it takes some pretty amazing manufacturing failures to produce one that’s live from the git-go which will probably trigger upon the acceleration down the gun barrel. Electronic fuzes, which are pretty common now obviously have all the wonderful failure modes electronics are prone to. More of which tend to dud than to trigger early. At least in US practice, fuzes aren’t mated to shells until pretty close to firing time. So fuzes cooking off on their own _should_ (that word again) not be, in most cases, causing full bore magazine explosions. 'Tis a mystery. I did think of another potential cause: Ukrainian disinformation and hacking. Feed enough fake reports of ammo explosions into the Russian C2 system, add in some staged vids on social media, and let the rumors go viral. Shades of the Sepoy Rebellion and the pig-tallow lubed cartridges. Having fired off a bunch of explosives myself back in the day, I have to say that it would not take too many explosions upon firing to persuade most of us to be pretty much afraid of pushing the button. Which tends to limit the effectiveness of your armed forces when they won’t actually use their, you know, … arms. ---
**Author:** ![Machine\_Elf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/82dd89/32.png) [@Machine\_Elf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Machine_Elf)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2023, 12:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4456 "2023-06-12T12:20:27Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > OTOH, shelf-stable “safe” explosives have been a solved problem since about 1940. Better-solved today, but WWII artillery shells didn’t have this problem (when fresh). Otherwise I’m in a quandry as to what could cause a basic unfuzed shell to explode. How much more does it cost to produce explosive material that’s shelf-stable and/or shock-insensitive? If they can’t get the ingredients they need because of funds or export sanctions, or don’t have time to follow through on a careful production process (e.g. thorough mixing, good quality control), I wouldn’t be surprised if the result is an explosive compound that is prone to really unpleasant behavior. > [@LSLGuy](#): > > at least for US mechanical fuzes, it takes some pretty amazing manufacturing failures to produce one that’s live from the git-go which will probably trigger upon the acceleration down the gun barrel. > > Electronic fuzes, which are pretty common now obviously have all the wonderful failure modes electronics are prone to. More of which tend to dud than to trigger early. AIUI, those fuzes typically look for a number of things before they’ll even consider detonating: the G-load indicating it’s been fired and/or the G-load from spin due to barrel rifling are a couple of signals that come to mind that would be hard to accidentally reproduce during the course of handling by operators. No doubt they are _designed_ to dud (fail-safe) rather than trigger unexpectedly. Unless critical components are replaced by a 1-ruble coin hand-soldered into place to save time and money. I’m not ruling out sabotage at all - but if I had to place a bet on the source of the problem, I would bet on degraded quality control at the munitions plant. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2023, 12:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4457 "2023-06-12T12:29:19Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Sabotage, factory hacking _a la_ StuxNet, or simple craptacular manufacturing? Am I allowed to bet the Trifecta? ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2023, 1:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4458 "2023-06-12T13:13:53Z")
> [@Machine\_Elf](#): > > How much more does it cost to produce explosive material that’s shelf-stable and/or shock-insensitive? If they can’t get the ingredients they need because of funds or export sanctions, or don’t have time to follow through on a careful production process (e.g. thorough mixing, good quality control), I wouldn’t be surprised if the result is an explosive compound that is prone to really unpleasant behavior. Yeah. All the above are certainly plausible. Although an easy way (the easiest way?) to cheat with explosives production is to substitute inert easy to source ingredients for the more expensive harder to get explody stuff. But in general, HE chemistry is hard and adulterants could have unexpected effects. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2023, 1:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4459 "2023-06-12T13:28:30Z")
Air Support is crucial in NATO strategy. Ukraine doesn’t have any. [https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/12/europe/ukraine-offensive-battlefield-losses-progress-intl-hnk-ml/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/12/europe/ukraine-offensive-battlefield-losses-progress-intl-hnk-ml/index.html) > [@](#): > > The 16 US Bradley infantry fighting vehicles either destroyed or damaged and abandoned in recent days represent almost 15% of the 109 that Washington has given Kyiv, according to Jakub Janovsky of the Dutch open-source intelligence website Oryx, which has been collecting visual evidence of military equipment losses in Ukraine since Russia’s invasion began on February 24, 2022. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2023, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4460 "2023-06-12T13:39:46Z")
Please - did anyone _seriously_ think there wouldn’t be losses? If they’re going to use the hardware some of it will be damaged and/or destroyed because that happens in war. Is that a significant loss when attempting to breach defensive lines? I don’t know, not a military expert, but compared to what the Russians have been losing over the past year this doesn’t strike me as outrageous. Unfortunate, perhaps, but not outrageous. ---
**Author:** ![smithsb](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smithsb/32/12107_2.png) [@smithsb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smithsb)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2023, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4461 "2023-06-12T13:42:42Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > problem (when fresh). Otherwise I’m in a quandry as to what could cause a basic unfuzed shell to explode. I believe it’s when firing, not just sitting around. Typical premature detonation on firing: 1. Cracks or voids in the explosive fill. Western ammo is x-rayed 100% for this. The compression/spin forces from firing collapse the voids with enough force to detonate the explosive fill. 2. Steel fractures not discovered after forging/machining/or heat treatment. X-ray not done/done poorly. Shell fractures when exposed to launce forces, explosive fill detonates. Western requirements are 100% X-ray. 3. Bad/incomplete welds. Projectiles are forged/shaped tubes. A base plate is welded in place, then the explosive is melt poured into the round. Western practice is again, 100% X-ray. If bad, hot propellant gases will enter thru weld porosity and detonate the round. 4. The explosive. Western use of Comp B (composition B) has been stopped due to an increase in premature explosions. We went back to good old TNT and later insensitive HE. Not sure of Russian explosive fill but incomplete mix or ingredient composition errors will drastically increase the sensitivity. Detonation on firing is a result. 5. The rush to fill orders. Short cuts, substitute materials, untrained workers all contribute. As we have seen in western efforts; supply chain disruptions, peacetime levels of manufacturing capability, limited skillsets all contribute to long lead times. You can’t just turn the dial up to eleven. I was in ammo quality/logistics for 37 years. All the manufacturing specifications, quality steps and safety requirements were written in blood. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2023, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4462 "2023-06-12T13:46:29Z")
Yeah, it’s one thing to know how to make shelf-stable explosives, but one of the things you have to know to do is to be really meticulous about all of the steps. You can use all the right ingredients, and put them through an approximation of the right process, but if you’re a little sloppy about that process, the results might not be so stable. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2023, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4463 "2023-06-12T14:17:59Z")
16 Bradley vehicles… represent 15% of the 109 total. > [@Broomstick](#): > > is that a significant loss when attempting to breach defensive lines? … but compared to what the Russians have been losing this doesn’t strike me as outrageous. It may not be outrageous, but it is unaffordable and unsustainable. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2023, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4464 "2023-06-12T14:23:50Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > Air Support is crucial in NATO strategy. Ukraine doesn’t have any. Air support is vital if the enemy is using airstrikes against you. There is nothing in that article that I noticed to suggest the Bradleys were destroyed by Russian air power. To be sure, a war with jets on your side will go better for you than a war without jets on your side. That does not mean, as you post appears to imply, that fighting a war against a mostly non-aerial enemy (i.e. Russia) is doomed to expensive failure absent air power. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2023, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4465 "2023-06-12T14:24:14Z")
> [@smithsb](#): > > I was in ammo quality/logistics for 37 years. All the manufacturing specifications, quality steps and safety requirements were written in blood. Excellent to hear from a pro on this. Thank you! ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2023, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4466 "2023-06-12T16:46:20Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > It may not be outrageous, but it is unaffordable and unsustainable Then war is unaffordable and unsustainable (would that it were so in general). Losses are inevitable. Given the conditions it may well be that heavy losses are inevitable, they certainly have been so far. Such is war. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2023, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4467 "2023-06-12T16:55:32Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > Then war is unaffordable and unsustainable My point is that the losses to Ukraine are unaffordable and unsustainable. They lost 15% of their best new armored vehicle in a week. They can sustain that for maybe 6 weeks, till it’s all gone. But for Russia, losses of men and equipment are irrelevant. They have massive reserve supplies of both, and they can continue fighting for years. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2023, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4468 "2023-06-12T17:00:09Z")
**Modnote** : Any further discussion on this point should go into its own thread. Please no more replies. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2023, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4469 "2023-06-12T17:10:27Z")
(okay. I apologize for an unintended hijack) now back to our regularly scheduled thread… ---
**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2023, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4470 "2023-06-12T18:24:25Z")
The reservoir skulls have made it into at least one news article: > **[Drained reservoir reveals very gruesome secret after dam explosion](https://metro.co.uk/2023/06/12/drained-reservoir-reveals-very-gruesome-secret-after-dam-explosion-18937761/?ico=mosaic_world)** > > 72% of the water the dam contained has drained and flooded the Dnieper River - and the newly lowered shoreline has revealed human skulls. Could be from the World War II Battle of the Dnieper in the same area, in which 350,000 Soviet soldiers and 100,000 German soldiers were killed: > **[Battle of the Dnieper](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Dnieper)** > > Army Group South > Army Group A > Army Group Center It doesn’t seem implausible to me. A few months ago there was a video about some soldiers in Ukraine digging a trench and finding the remains of a fallen WWII soldier. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2023, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4471 "2023-06-12T18:26:54Z")
The learning curve will be high for the new Ukrainian commanders. Several people here have explained offensive operations are more complex. It’s going to be a slugfest for awhile. Russia has allegedly breached another dam. > **[Ukraine accuses Russia of destroying another dam](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/12/ukraine-accuses-russia-of-destroying-another-dam-donetsk)** > > A week after collapse of Kakhovka dam – for which Kyiv blames Moscow – Russia accused of blowing up smaller dam in Donetsk region ---
**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2023, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4472 "2023-06-12T22:58:43Z")
Russian Telegram channels [reportedly announce the death](https://war.obozrevatel.com/minus-esche-odin-general-vsu-na-zaporozhe-likvidirovali-nachshtaba-35-j-armii-rf-sergeya-goryacheva-foto.htm) of another Russian Major general, killed by a Ukrainian missile attack in the Zaporizhzhia region: [![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fyc8oYPXgAAwhzW?format=jpg&name=medium) ](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fyc8oYPXgAAwhzW?format=jpg&name=medium) He is on wikipedia’s list of Russian generals killed during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, marked as ‘Claimed’: > **[List of Russian generals killed during the Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Russian_generals_killed_during_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine)** > > A number of Russian generals have been killed during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As of 7 February 2023, Ukrainian sources claimed that 14 Russian generals had been killed during the invasion, while Russian sources have confirmed four deaths. Although four of the Ukrainian claims were rebutted, the loss of even two general officers is rare. The scale of these losses is unprecedented since World War II. This has been attributed to Russian senior commanders going to the field to addres Russi... ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2023, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4473 "2023-06-13T00:21:06Z")
6 posts were merged into an existing topic: [Does What Exit’s heavy-handed moderation in the Ukraine war thread improve it or degrade it?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-what-exits-heavy-handed-moderation-in-the-ukraine-war-thread-improve-it-or-degrade-it/983368/31) ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2023, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4479 "2023-06-12T23:32:28Z")
[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/) 10 June 2023 **Russia’s central bank sounded alarms on inflation amid the falling ruble and a record labor shortage.** - Russia’s central bank sounded alarms on the economy Friday as the falling ruble and a record labor shortage add inflationary pressures. - Policymakers kept the benchmark interest rate steady at 7.5%, where it has been since September, but signaled an increase may be coming soon. - “The option of hiking the rate was considered, but by consensus we decided to hold the rate, but tighten the signal,” Governor Elvira Nabiullina said at a news conference, [according to Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/hawkish-russian-cbank-flags-rising-inflation-risks-rate-hold-2023-06-09/#:~:text=MOSCOW%2C%20June%209%20(Reuters),7.5%25%20as%20expected%20on%20Friday.), adding that “the likelihood of a rate hike has increased.” It appears Putin has to replace soldiers during a labor shortage and pay them with a devalued ruble. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972.md?page=218) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972.md?page=220)