# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2) **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\ **Created:** [October 29, 2022, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972 "2022-10-29T17:49:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 234
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2023, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4763 "2023-06-24T17:34:00Z")
> [@JacobSwan](#): > > The soviets designed their motorways for rapid troop deployment to put down dissent. Unfortunately it means they are also very useful for getting troops and tanks into the heart of Moscow. All roads lead from ~~Rome~~ Moscow. Some folks just travel them in the wrong direction. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2023, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4764 "2023-06-24T17:35:24Z")
Nm. Bad math and old link ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2023, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4765 "2023-06-24T17:36:19Z")
> [@CoolHandCox](#): > > I’m unclear how Wagner can sustain this for weeks or months, though. Especially if they come under heavy sustained attacks. But maybe the question also is how does Russia keep up a heavy sustained attack without pulling significant forces from Ukraine. its not meant to take weeks or months (if it does take that long, its mostly failing) … its a “make-me-or-break-me” thing that’s gonna have **a clear winner and a clear loser within the next 2-3 days**. > [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > At this point, nobody is sure who is loyal to who. It’s possible that whoever commands the air force has told his troops to sit this out for now and see what happens. I think that’s the critical point here … probably 1000s of mid-tier-military are sitting on the fence, NOT taking decisions that could put them on the wrong side of history … again, I think 90% of that “attack” will be (not)fought in the head-space and not really a military-slug-fest ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2023, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4766 "2023-06-24T17:37:36Z")
Prigozhin has indeed made the announcement that they are pulling back. Difficult to see how things can just return to normal. ---
**Author:** ![CoolHandCox](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/coolhandcox/32/16233_2.png) [@CoolHandCox](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CoolHandCox)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2023, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4767 "2023-06-24T17:39:23Z")
So who won the Russian primary? ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2023, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4768 "2023-06-24T17:40:48Z")
Why? Why would Prigozhin do this? Why would Belarus do this? Why would Prigozhin listen? Doesn’t this mean certain death? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2023, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4769 "2023-06-24T17:41:00Z")
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#): > > Prigozhin has indeed made the announcement that they are pulling back. Difficult to see how things can just return to normal. Unconfirmed rumors, AFAICT. Maybe real, maybe not. We’ll see. EDIT: I see the confirmations now. So it looks like he did say it (or a convincing imitation said it), but let’s wait to see what actually happens. Could well be a feint, or a hoax, or some other explanation (maybe to make Prigo look reasonable i.e. “I was willing to stand down but then they sent a squad to assassinate me so now I have no choice but to end this criminal regime…”). Or maybe real (which would seem dumb from Prigo’s perspective – hard to imagine how he survives if Putin keeps power). ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2023, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4770 "2023-06-24T17:48:22Z")
Thinking about it further – if Prigo’s own fighters lost their willingness to fight other Russians, they may have forced him to stand down, allowing him to stay as visible leader to save face. But for now we should just wait and see. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2023, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4771 "2023-06-24T17:50:16Z")
I’m not believing it. There’s no way that Putin can accept the continued existence of Wagner at this point, and Prigozhin knows this perfectly well. Something else is afoot. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2023, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4772 "2023-06-24T17:53:05Z")
Maybe they’re going with the original plan? Purge Shoigu and Gerasimov, declare victory in Ukraine while claiming the whole thing was really their idea, bring the troops home, make Prigozhin the new minister of defense, and in exchange Putin gets to keep being president of Russia? ---
**Author:** ![CoolHandCox](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/coolhandcox/32/16233_2.png) [@CoolHandCox](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CoolHandCox)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2023, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4773 "2023-06-24T17:57:34Z")
I’m not claiming this is real or anything, but as suggested above, this is a possible end game which _is_ what Wagner was demanding: > BREAKING: Reports there will be major changes in Russian Ministry of Defense leadership in exchange for Wagner halting its advance on Moscow > > — The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) [June 24, 2023](https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1672662959481577472?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw) Putin has to be incredibly politically weak to accept this, though. ---
**Author:** ![FrenchDunadan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frenchdunadan/32/5449_2.png) [@FrenchDunadan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FrenchDunadan)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2023, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4774 "2023-06-24T17:57:57Z")
Prigojine has been deemed a traitor, called “apostate” by Putin, rebelled and took Russian army generals prisoners, shoot down at least one and maybe several aircrafts…after accusing the Russian army of bombing his training camps. How can he be “Well, we go back to barracks and business as usual”? That truce will not last, or else Prigojine is deader than dead. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2023, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4775 "2023-06-24T18:02:03Z")
He HAS to know this. There is no end game here that doesn’t include either victory or death for him. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2023, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4776 "2023-06-24T18:12:10Z")
[https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672658620671041540?cxt=HHwWiIC9ueiJvbYuAAAA](https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672658620671041540?cxt=HHwWiIC9ueiJvbYuAAAA) from the tweet: Prigozhin says it’s over: _“They were going to dismantle PMC Wagner. We came out on 23 June to the March of Justice. In a day, we walked to nearly 200km away from Moscow. In this time, we did not spill a single drop of blood of our fighters. Now, the moment has come when blood may spill. That’s why, understanding the responsibility for spilling Russian blood on one of the sides, we are turning back our convoys and going back to field camps according to the plan.”_ [https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1672664197669289985?cxt=HHwWgoC8qbjOv7YuAAAA](https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1672664197669289985?cxt=HHwWgoC8qbjOv7YuAAAA) “Prigozhin was offered to give up the idea of ​​going to Moscow, and in response was offered the security of Wagner. They also promised to resolve the issue of Shoigu and Gerasimov,” Russian media report. ---
**Author:** ![FloatyGimpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/floatygimpy/32/7750_2.png) [@FloatyGimpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FloatyGimpy)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2023, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4777 "2023-06-24T18:13:49Z")
This further convinces me that it wasn’t real and was all staged. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2023, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4778 "2023-06-24T18:18:47Z")
at this stage, likely outcome: - putin stays in (little) power, they take away his “make-me-taller” shoes - Shoigun et al will be the sacrifitial lambs (which is a possible good news for UKR, as that might be an off-ramp - Prigo will be made new MoD … (and I guess de facto leader of russia) - Putin and Prigo cannot trust the other and turn their back on them - Putin or Prigo will fall out of a window … ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2023, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4779 "2023-06-24T18:20:23Z")
I guess a lot of military guys are now scared shitless concerning their actions take in the past 24 or so hours … 😉 ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2023, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4780 "2023-06-24T18:30:27Z")
Or at the very least, it was a pointless exercise. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2023, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4781 "2023-06-24T18:35:02Z")
I can’t see how Prigozhin can survive. He’s spoken out too frequently. The march towards Moscow is unforgettable. Putin has to retaliate and show strength as a leader. ---
**Author:** ![FloatyGimpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/floatygimpy/32/7750_2.png) [@FloatyGimpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FloatyGimpy)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2023, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4782 "2023-06-24T18:40:11Z")
> [@CaptMurdock](#): > > Or at the very least, it was a pointless exercise. The whole thing has been pinging my bullshit metre from the beginning. I know as much about military exercises as my dog but usually when there is a coup, you hear about it on the news just as it’s happening or has already happened. I can’t remember one where the insurrectionists announced from 1000 miles away “we’re coming to overthrow you!”. And then a short while later “ok we won’t”. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972.md?page=233) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972.md?page=235)