# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2) **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\ **Created:** [October 29, 2022, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972 "2022-10-29T17:49:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 240
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2023, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4884 "2023-06-27T15:25:54Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > why Putin wouldn’t just bomb their convoys To me, in all of this, there are a few reasons. 1. The Russian military won’t—they’re not following Putin’s orders, or being slow about it, etc. 2. The Russian military can’t—the military is willing, but there are operational problems. 3. Putin doesn’t want to—he’d rather keep the Wagner fighters and their equipment intact, or wants to avoid collateral damage (ok, maybe not _that_). ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2023, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4885 "2023-06-27T16:02:11Z")
If 1 or 2 is true, why did Wagner stop? Did Putin just bluff them? With what? Wagner knows even better than we do how messed up the regular Russian forces are. 3 might be true, but is entirely out of character for Putin. If 3 is true, then _Putin himself_ thinks something has changed, and changed radically enough to even get through to Putin, which a year of losing in Ukraine didn’t do. So, the question then, is, what made Putin change? Like I said, we’re missing some key information here. I don’t know if we’ll ever learn it, but I sure hope the CIA, et al. are looking at this hard. ---
**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2023, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4886 "2023-06-27T16:32:52Z")
Videos from Wagner’s March on Moscow a few days ago. Russian state air strikes: > > Destruction of Russian state Il-22 aircraft by Wagner forces: > [![](https://t.plnspttrs.net/19460/761134_304f92fea0_280.jpg) ](https://t.plnspttrs.net/19460/761134_304f92fea0_280.jpg) ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2023, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4887 "2023-06-27T18:41:57Z")
> [@Si\_Amigo](#): > > Putin has been holding them back throughout the Ukrainian war because he knows the NATO/American air defense woud cause great damage and that they would be difficult to replace quickly. The Wagner air defenses were designed and built by Russia, so not much of a threat to overcome since they train against them. That is exactly backwards. It is Soviet-built ground-based air defense that has been holding up the Russian air force in Ukraine precisely because they are not trained to deal with themselves. NATO relies much less heavily on GBAD than the Soviet successor states, so Russia hasn’t invested as heavily in suppression of enemy air defense training/equipment as the West does. ---
**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2023, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4888 "2023-06-27T19:49:17Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > If 1 or 2 is true, why did Wagner stop? Did Putin just bluff them? With what? Prigozhin’s wife owns various businesses in Saint Petersburg, and she and Prigozhin have kids. Putin’s a gangster, so I don’t doubt he or his henchmen would apply the necessary pressure if he felt his position was under threat. It could be that simple. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2023, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4889 "2023-06-27T22:29:49Z")
Huh, how close is this base to Ukraine border? Aleksander Lukashenko is strengthening his military resources. > **[Wagner group offered abandoned military base in Belarus, Lukashenko says – video](https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2023/jun/27/wagner-group-offered-abandoned-military-base-in-belarus-lukashenko-says-video)** > > The Belarusian president, Aleksander Lukashenko, says he has offered the Wagner group the use of an abandoned military base ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2023, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4890 "2023-06-27T22:38:33Z")
> [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](#): > > Prigozhin’s wife owns various businesses in Saint Petersburg, and she and Prigozhin have kids. Putin’s a gangster, so I don’t doubt he or his henchmen would apply the necessary pressure if he felt his position was under threat. It could be that simple. But you would think that Prigozhin would have known that right from the start, and that his plans (and he definitely had plans) would include some way to keep them safe. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2023, 1:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4891 "2023-06-28T01:22:09Z")
wanted to say the same … I doubt Prigo just “forgot” he had family out there … even before the coup, I’d venture a guess that his family was very well protected and out of harm’s way … Sledgehammer and all that … so that “threatened family” rationale (mentioned in mainstream media) is one that I do not buy at all ---
**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2023, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4892 "2023-06-28T01:30:20Z")
Maybe not Prigozhin, but his subordinates then. Prigozhin was in Rostov-on-Don, not leading the March on Moscow. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2023, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4893 "2023-06-28T02:02:25Z")
I didn’t realize Poland would feel threatened by these events. Guardian feed > [@](#): > > **The movement of Wagner group troops to Belarus is a negative signal for Poland, president Andrzej Duda said on Tuesday, as he headed for talks with other Nato leaders in the Netherlands.** “We see what is happening, the relocation of Russian forces in the form of the Wagner group to Belarus, and the head of the Wagner group going there, those are all very negative signals for us which we want to raise strongly with our allies,” he told reporters. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2023, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4894 "2023-06-28T02:27:20Z")
> [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](#): > > Maybe not Prigozhin, but his subordinates then. Prigozhin was in Rostov-on-Don, not leading the March on Moscow. Well, again, yes, his men abandoning him would explain the sudden turn-around, but it doesn’t explain why Putin hasn’t had him killed yet, or why Prigozhin isn’t running for his life in expectation of being killed. Dictators are not known for leaving mutineers free and happy. ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2023, 5:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4895 "2023-06-28T05:35:30Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > Dictators are not known for leaving mutineers free and happy. But they can bide their time. Markov, Litvinenko, Skripal had all been in exile for a good while before they were dealt with. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2023, 9:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4896 "2023-06-28T09:49:23Z")
[NATO says it will protect its members from the Wagner fighters in Belarus, and Putin has started trying to tear down Prigozhin‘s reputation as corrupt.](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/28/nato-will-defend-members-from-threat-of-wagner-forces-in-belarus) Maybe Lukashenko wants the Wagner folks as a card somehow against Putin? ---
**Author:** ![DPRK](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/4491bb/32.png) [@DPRK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DPRK)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2023, 12:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4897 "2023-06-28T12:43:35Z")
> [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](#): > > Or left-wing, communist/Soviet even. One Russian commented that Russia is no different from the rest of the world in that there is no left wing, but also that “like the USA” there is only one party, no true political rivalry or real challenges to the entrenched power structure at all. ---
**Author:** ![smithsb](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smithsb/32/12107_2.png) [@smithsb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smithsb)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2023, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4898 "2023-06-28T13:48:58Z")
June 27 2023 aid package. Drawdown of existing stocks rather than future purchase contracts. The capabilities in this package include: - Additional munitions for Patriot air defense systems; - Stinger anti-aircraft systems; - Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS); - Demolitions munitions and systems for obstacle clearing; - Mine clearing equipment; - 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds; - 30 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles; - 25 Stryker Armored Personnel Carriers; - Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles; - Javelin anti-armor systems; - AT-4 anti-armor systems; - Anti-armor rockets; - High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs); - Precision aerial munitions; - Small arms and over 22 million rounds of small arms ammunition and grenades; - Thermal imagery systems and night vision devices; - Testing and diagnostic equipment to support vehicle maintenance and repair; - Spare parts, generators, and other field equipment. > **[Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine](https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3440628/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/)** > > The DOD announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine's critical security and defense needs. The package, valued at up to $500 million, includes key capabilities to support Ukraine's ---
**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2023, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4899 "2023-06-28T19:16:40Z")
The least charismatic man in Russia is jealous of the “Dark Clown” and wants some rock star treatment of his own. > ---
**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2023, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4900 "2023-06-28T21:18:38Z")
That’s pretty remarkable. Presupposing that’s actually Putin and not one of his doubles. The guy is an infamous germaphobe and would have had to overcome that, not to mention exposing himself to lots of people within stabbing/shooting distance. Yes, there’s a bodyguard on both sides of him but look how many are within arms reach there. ---
**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2023, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4901 "2023-06-28T21:36:13Z")
There are rumors from Russian sources that general Surovikin, head of the Russian air force and top commander of the invasion of Ukraine between October 2022 and January 2023, is under arrest. He was the Russian general that Prigozhin had praised and had a positive relationship with. He’s also the general that many commented looks like Dr. Evil. However, during the mutiny, Surovikin sided with the Russian state and gave a videoed anti-mutiny speech. Maybe his loyalty to the state was a factor in Prigozhin giving up his Wagner March on Moscow. If the rumors are correct, it does not appear to have helped him evade state scrutiny, though. Other rumors from Russian sources are that there’s a purge going on of officers that showed “indecisiveness” in suppressing the mutiny. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2023, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4902 "2023-06-28T21:39:55Z")
> [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](#): > > Other rumors from Russian sources are that there’s a purge going on of officers that showed “indecisiveness” in suppressing the mutiny. That adds more fuel to the “mutiny was all Putin’s plan” theory. Not that I think it’s wholly plausible. Possible? Sure, as are many things. But not very likely. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2023, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/4903 "2023-06-28T21:40:59Z")
> [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](#): > > Other rumors from Russian sources are that there’s a purge going on of officers that showed “indecisiveness” in suppressing the mutiny. I would be shocked if that was mere rumor. The Kremlin might not know shit about running a war, but they know all about keeping power and making an example of those whose loyalty is deemed lacking. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972.md?page=239) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972.md?page=241)