# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2) **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\ **Created:** [October 29, 2022, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972 "2022-10-29T17:49:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 249
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2023, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5065 "2023-07-12T13:46:38Z")
There are huge downsides to “promises” that are significant in cost / risk and whose implementation date is unknowable. That’s true in personal relationships and far more true in international relations. Strategic ambiguity is an extremely valuable commodity. No matter how frustrating that is to laymen watching from the grandstands. Beyond strategic ambiguity there’s the inevitable fact the future is uncertain. Beyond Zelenskyy and his innermost circle much of Ukraine’s business and government elite are still a post-Soviet kleptocracy. Far better now than 5 years ago, but absent the war those folks have no place in NATO or the EU. Zelenskyy is not immortal. If he has a stroke or is hit by a missile the world changes instantly. What of our promise then as Ukraine tirns into Belarus over the weekend? ---
**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2023, 1:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5066 "2023-07-12T13:52:03Z")
An update on the status of Russian general Sergey Surovikin, who has not been seen in public since the failed Wagner-led rebellion last month: > [@](#): > > “He is resting for now. Not available,” Andrey Kartapolov, head of Russia’s State Duma Defense Committee, told the Telegram channel SHOT in a video posted on Wednesday. > **[July 12, 2023 - Russia-Ukraine news](https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-07-12-23/index.html)** > > The NATO summit wrapped Wednesday with the allies offering assurances to President Volodymyr Zelensky that Kyiv's future lies in the alliance — and appearing to calm Ukrainian frustrations over a lack of a timeline for membership. Prigozhin has also not been seen or heard from for a couple of weeks. ---
**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2023, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5067 "2023-07-12T13:55:02Z")
Followed by ‘on vacation,’ then ‘spending time with his family’ and later ‘taking a sabbatical’ ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2023, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5068 "2023-07-12T13:57:31Z")
“On a nice farm in upstate Siberia, where he can chase bunnies all day”. ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2023, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5069 "2023-07-12T13:57:43Z")
Then “playing with other generals at a farm in the country.” Edit: heh, jinx. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2023, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5070 "2023-07-12T13:58:20Z")
Perhaps they’re having a cage match in the Lubyanka for Putin’s entertainment. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2023, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5071 "2023-07-12T14:09:16Z")
There was a major G7 announcement about Ukraine. Zelensky is wisely backing off his public criticism. I understand Ukraine’s government could shift dramatically. There will be major challenges rebuilding after the war. Instability and lack of public confidence can be dangerous for any government. CNN feed > [@](#): > > US President Joe Biden said members of the Group of 7 are launching a joint declaration “to make it clear that our support will last long into the future.” > > In remarks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Japanese President Fumio Kishida at the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, Biden said “we’re not waiting” for the NATO accession process to play out before guaranteeing long-term security commitments to Ukraine. > > > “This starts a process by which each of our nations and any other nation who wishes to participate will negotiate long-term bilateral security commitments with and to Ukraine. We’re gonna help Ukraine build a strong, capable defense across land, air and sea … It will be a force of stability in the region and deter against any and all threats,” Biden said. > > The US president promised to help Ukraine “for as long as that takes.” > [@](#): > > President Volodymyr Zelensky said Wednesday that the outcome of the NATO summit in Vilnius was “much-needed,” calling the summit a “meaningful success for Ukraine.” > > He thanked the NATO leaders for their “practical and unprecedented support” and said that the Ukrainian delegation was going to return home with security guarantees. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2023, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5072 "2023-07-12T14:34:35Z")
> [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](#): > > He is resting for now. In peace. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2023, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5073 "2023-07-12T14:53:43Z")
And possibly in pieces. ---
**Author:** ![duality72](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duality72/32/3910_2.png) [@duality72](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/duality72)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2023, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5074 "2023-07-12T16:21:17Z")
Depends on how high the window was. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2023, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5075 "2023-07-12T16:21:23Z")
‘E’s pining for the fjords. Beautiful plumage! ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2023, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5076 "2023-07-12T17:24:38Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > after the war that sure sounds like the pinnacle of optimism ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2023, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5077 "2023-07-12T18:21:48Z")
The war has to end eventually. 😉 Although I’m beginning to wonder which side will exhaust their war supplies first. The news about NATO stocks getting low is concerning. There’s a threshold where countries will have to consider their own self-defense. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2023, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5078 "2023-07-12T19:28:53Z")
Yes, and China and North Korea and Iran supplying Russia means this proxy war could go on for a very long time. In the meantime, we are depleting inventories of everything from tanks to APCs to artillery and shells. China is certainly taking note. Some of the stuff being taken from inventory will take many years to replenish. On this board over the years I have constantly taken the side of more spending in NATO against other users who wanted the military downsized because there were no current threats. My answer was always, “with the long lead times for new weapons procurement, you can’t build a military based on current threats, but the threats you might face in a few years or a decade or two.” Well, here we are. Decades of low commitment to NATO have left many NATO countries shockingly unprepared for war, with no way to catch up in any reasonable time. And if we expend/destroy our critical weaponry and ammunition in Ukraine, we’ll be weakened for a decade or more until we can replenish expensive, high tech weapons inventories. For example, the U.S. is building a new factory for artillery shells, but it won’t even be online until 2028. That’s a long time to go without adequate artillery reserves. And the temporary but long nature of that wait is more dangerous, because it basically opens a window for bad actors that will eventually close. So if China was thinking of invading Taiwan but had no specific timeline, this could give them one: Invade before the west rearms. ---
**Author:** ![Latimera](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/latimera/32/497_2.png) [@Latimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Latimera)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2023, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5079 "2023-07-12T20:08:47Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > The news about NATO stocks getting low is concerning. I haven’t read that, although I’ve heard it mentioned. Can you direct me to any cites? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2023, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5080 "2023-07-12T20:16:26Z")
The weapons that would be relevant in a hypothetical confrontation with China are mostly disjoint from the weapons we’re sending to Ukraine. We’re not going to get into a land war with China, and our naval power is mostly irrelevant in Ukraine. ---
**Author:** ![smithsb](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smithsb/32/12107_2.png) [@smithsb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smithsb)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2023, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5081 "2023-07-12T20:42:34Z")
The US has not touched its M1 Abrams stockpile (more than 3,000 available sitting in the desert - not counting the ones in unit motor pools). Ammunition for these tanks is plentiful. US still has hundreds of Bradley Fighting Vehicles. TOW missiles, 25mm ammo, and machine gun ammo is plentiful. The Army has over a thousand M209 155mm howitzers not needed for the China scare. The 155mm HE ammo is the shortage recently alleviated by the release of DPICM rounds (~4 million in stock). Ammo for the Ukrainian Soviet era artillery is a sticking point but feelers and 2nd, 3rd party buyers are working on it. The Ukrainian army is moving to the NATO standard 155mm weapons and ammo. More, but I have to go swimming with my granddaughter. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2023, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5082 "2023-07-12T21:07:18Z")
> [@Latimera](#): > > I haven’t read that, although I’ve heard it mentioned. Can you direct me to any cites? Low ammunition was Biden’s statement and a reason for cluster bombs. I’ve seen other articles that stingers are in short supply. [https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/07/politics/joe-biden-cluster-munitions-ukraine/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/07/politics/joe-biden-cluster-munitions-ukraine/index.html) > **[As Raytheon struggles to replenish Stinger missiles, lawmaker pushes Defense...](https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2022/04/26/as-raytheon-struggles-to-replenish-stinger-missiles-lawmaker-pushes-defense-production-act/)** > > The U.S. may not be able to make more of the shoulder-fired Stinger anti-aircraft missiles it has been sending to Ukraine until at least 2023, the manufacturer, Raytheon Technologies said Tuesday. I would assume the US military has reserves for its defense of the country. and NATO They wouldn’t give thst to Ukraine. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2023, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5083 "2023-07-12T21:22:55Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > I’m frustrated that a plan for Nato membership can’t be promised _after_ the war ends. That would make for a strong incentive for Russia to keep the war going. That seems like a bad idea. > [@aceplace57](#): > > I would assume the US military has reserves for its defense of the country. and NATO They wouldn’t give thst to Ukraine. Have you seen what this administration has done to the Strategic Petroleum reserve? Down another 30% this year. Don’t count on careful, rational analysis of future needs from this bunch. [US Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve Stocks](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_ending_stocks_of_crude_oil_in_the_strategic_petroleum_reserve#:~:text=Basic%20Info,30.27%25%20from%20one%20year%20ago). ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2023, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5084 "2023-07-12T21:26:54Z")
**Moderating:** Keep the posts non-political in the Breaking News thread. Please don’t do this again. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972.md?page=248) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972.md?page=250)