# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2) **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\ **Created:** [October 29, 2022, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972 "2022-10-29T17:49:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 250
**Author:** ![Latimera](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/latimera/32/497_2.png) [@Latimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Latimera)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2023, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5085 "2023-07-12T21:41:27Z")
Thanks. I’ll give those a read… ---
**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2023, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5086 "2023-07-12T22:02:35Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Yes, and China and North Korea and Iran supplying Russia And, possibly, India. > **[India is ready to sell cruise missiles to Russia](https://defence-blog.com/india-is-ready-to-sell-cruise-missiles-to-russia/)** > > Indian arms company BrahMos Aerospace has declared it wants to sell its BrahMos cruise missiles to Russia, according to the CEO Atul Dinkar Rane. In an interview with The Week, the BrahMos Aerospace CEO said they have been continuously looking at... ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2023, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5087 "2023-07-12T23:55:47Z")
> [@gnoitall](#): > > And, possibly, India. Where does India see it’s world market after this war is over? ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2023, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5088 "2023-07-13T00:18:09Z")
Why, Russia, North Korea, and China of course. All on credit. ---
**Author:** ![Askance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askance/32/8281_2.png) [@Askance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askance)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2023, 12:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5089 "2023-07-13T00:58:50Z")
Australia finally stepping up a bit more in supporting Ukraine > **[Albanese offers 30 more Bushmasters to Zelensky at NATO summit](https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/albanese-offers-30-more-bushmasters-to-zelensky-at-nato-summit-20230712-p5dntw.html)** > > The extra contributions will be added to the already 90 protected mobility vehicles which are on the battlefield in Ukraine. I truly don’t understand the reluctance to given then whatever they feel they need, by Australia or anyone else. The less we give them the longer this war will go for, which IMO is exactly what Putin wants. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2023, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5090 "2023-07-13T01:55:09Z")
It’s going to come down to aircraft and when that happens it’s going to be dramatic. Right now the war has a real chance of toppling Putin and imploding Russia. ---
**Author:** ![Sauron](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ce7236/32.png) [@Sauron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sauron)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2023, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5091 "2023-07-13T03:16:07Z")
Russia’s national current-account surplus has dropped 93% from the same quarter in 2022, according to figures released by its central bank: > **[Russia's economy dealt a crushing blow as its current-account surplus...](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/russia-economy-trade-current-account-surplus-plunges-93-energy-exports-2023-7)** > > Russia's current-account surplus tanked 93% to $5.4 billion last quarter from the year-earlier period, Bank of Russia data show, dealing a fresh blow to the beleaguered economy. It had $5.4 billion in surplus at the end of June, compared to a $76.7 billion surplus in June 2022. Between Western sanctions and the increasing costs associated with the war, it’s hard to see how Russia will continue to fund this foolishness for much longer. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2023, 10:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5092 "2023-07-13T10:33:23Z")
A side question, if I may:what sites do you folks generally go to accurate information? I’ve been using BBC and Al’Jazeera just because I felt they sometimes has stories the US-based news sites didn’t. [A Russian general has reportedly been dismissed for criticizing the war in Ukraine.](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/13/russia-general-in-ukraine-removed-over-strategy-criticism-report) Better a metaphorical fall than the real deal, I suppose. Sounds like what Prigozhin was saying. If one person complains about something like this, you have a complainer. If two people, you might have a problem. ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2023, 11:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5093 "2023-07-13T11:10:33Z")
I have the print Guardian Monday-Saturday. That and the BBC do for me. I don’t feel the need to be glued to internet coverage, good or bad. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2023, 12:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5094 "2023-07-13T12:19:52Z")
> [@Love\_Rhombus](#): > > A side question, if I may:what sites do you folks generally go to accurate information? Here, really. But when war is involved, every new story needs to be viewed with a heavy filter of caution until facts are confirmed. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2023, 1:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5095 "2023-07-13T13:10:19Z")
> [@Sauron](#): > > Russia’s national current-account surplus has dropped 93% from the same quarter in 2022, according to figures released by its central bank: Anyone want to explain to us non-economists what precisely that means? I mean, I’m sure it’s bad news for Russia, but what’s the direct practical effect? ---
**Author:** ![Sauron](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ce7236/32.png) [@Sauron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sauron)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2023, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5096 "2023-07-13T14:28:30Z")
Lord knows I’m not a macroeconomist, but from what I gather, it’s pretty bad. Russian apologists would probably say “Hey, we’ve still got a budget surplus, so that’s better than 90% of other countries.” The explanation I’ve seen in another story (that I can’t find right now) is that Putin is essentially stripping the Russian economy of everything fungible to keep the war going. The comparison was something like “Putin is tearing down the walls of his house to burn in the fireplace.” Income from oil and gas products – Russia’s primary source of income – is down more than 30% year over year, so overall revenue is becoming a major concern. In personal terms, I’m thinking about it like this: In June of last year, I had $760 in my savings account. Now I’ve got $54, and the spending I’ve been doing to draw down that account isn’t stopping. At the same time, my salary has been cut 30%. At some point in the very near future I’m going to run out of ready cash to spend, and I’ll need to either stop spending the money or find some other source of income. And since I’m a jerk neighbor with a crap reputation, nobody is gonna help me … except maybe the Chinese, North Korean, and Iranian loan sharks down the street. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2023, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5097 "2023-07-13T15:06:48Z")
> [@Sauron](#): > > In personal terms, I’m thinking about it like this: In June of last year, I had $760 in my savings account. Now I’ve got $54 Bad comparison. The basic rules of economics for a country are totally different than for a private person. A country has lots of options…it can print more money, sell bonds, devalue its currency, change its interest rates, take on as much debt as it wants ---
**Author:** ![Sauron](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ce7236/32.png) [@Sauron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sauron)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2023, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5098 "2023-07-13T15:19:11Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > The basic rules of economics for a country are totally different than for a private person. A country has lots of options… Oh, I know. It’s wildly oversimplified. But it’s a quick-and-dirty way of explaining the economic situation Russia is in using relatable terms. I wouldn’t want to give a dissertation at the World Economic Council using that analogy. ---
**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2023, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5099 "2023-07-13T15:42:44Z")
Without a detailed lesson on national macroeconomics, it’s probably enough to say (in the context of a breaking news story) that the cost of the war is wrecking the Russian economy, and this is another milestone in that progress. ---
**Author:** ![Si\_Amigo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/si_amigo/32/2877_2.png) [@Si\_Amigo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Si_Amigo)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2023, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5100 "2023-07-13T16:15:48Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > A country has lots of options…it can print more money, sell bonds, devalue its currency, change its interest rates, take on as much debt as it wants Or invade another country and steal its assests. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2023, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5101 "2023-07-13T16:17:15Z")
> [@Si\_Amigo](#): > > Or invade another country and steal its assests. Should be fine as long as Russia goes onto the washing machine standard. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2023, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5102 "2023-07-13T16:18:04Z")
“Current-account balance” is all about short term import / export balance. It says nothing _directly_ about total wealth, government budget balance, currency price vs other currencies, or anything else. See > **[Current account (balance of payments)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Current_account_(balance_of_payments))** > > In economics, a country's current account records the value of exports and imports of both goods and services and international transfers of capital. It is one of the two components of its balance of payments, the other being the capital account (also known as the financial account). Current account measures the nation's earnings and spendings abroad and it consists of the balance of trade, net primary income or factor income (earnings on foreign investments minus payments made to foreign inves... The real thumbnail is that if running a current account deficit, money and value is pouring out of your country faster than it’s pouring in. The net direction or rate must change _eventually_ or something will fail catastrophically when one or another value hits the fundamental stops. In Russia’s immediate case, the real news here is twofold. 1. How surprisingly well Russia has done financially from the Feb 2022 invasion until just recently. 2. How rapidly things are now going from OK-ish to free-falling towards a crash. Evidently the sanctions, shortages, and waste of capital and labor inherent in fighting a war are finally biting hard enough to matter. IOW, the correct rejoinder to all the naysayers saying “Sanctions aren’t working” is “They weren’t working fully. Yet. They are now.” A secondary implication is that a very aggressive and mostly successful effort to promptly embargo the rest of the Russian economy from the entire rest of the world could well implode the country rather quickly. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2023, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5103 "2023-07-13T16:18:46Z")
Are the washing machine thefts because the Russian soldiers are looting consumer items? Or is the Russian military harvesting useful computer chips from them? ---
**Author:** ![SunUp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ea5d25/32.png) [@SunUp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SunUp)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2023, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5104 "2023-07-13T16:36:42Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > The basic rules of economics for a country are totally different than for a private person. A country has lots of options…it can print more money, sell bonds, devalue its currency, change its interest rates, take on as much debt as it wants What it says is that Russian ran a huge trade deficit over the past year, and will run out of reserves to continue trading at such a deficit in a couple of months. At that point, Russia starts facing some difficult options. It can try to expand exports to get more foreign exchange currency. However, Western sanctions are at least making trade less lucrative for Russia, by forcing Russia to make deals that would net less than they would on the open market. Most of Russia’s exports are agricultural or mineral commodities or military equipment. The latter are probably valued less than they were a year and a half ago. Saudi Arabia/OPEC might be able to help by dialing down oil supply, but they’re still getting less than the world market price on petroleum and natural gas, both of which are cheaper than last year. As Russia’s natural market (Europe) is working on decarbonization, they’ll need to endure lower prices for a long time even after the war is over or expend capital to open up new markets - again, costly in terms of the current account. There’s a lot Russia can do with central bank interventions, but in terms of current account they all come down to “get other people to trade their currency for rubles.” Last year when the war started, Russia hiked interest rates to 20% to attract just that kind of trade. With Russian interest rates now at 7.5%, those investors have made a tidy sum on paper, but if Russia starts devaluing the ruble, there’s going to be a run for the exits, which again will hurt Russia’s current account balance. Russia is not autarkous - it doesn’t produce everything it needs. (I’m not sure any nation is anymore.) As long as this is the case, it will need to trade. As long as people are leery about holding rubles, or dealing with Russia at all, that trade will be conducted at a significant disadvantage. And that’s going to hurt Russia’s economy - in real terms, not just financial ones - far into the future. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972.md?page=249) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972.md?page=251)