# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2) **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\ **Created:** [October 29, 2022, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972 "2022-10-29T17:49:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 257
**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2023, 11:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5225 "2023-07-23T11:18:06Z")
Odesa’s cathedral. According to Putin logic, the attack on this “military target” must prove that he’s in league with the Devil. [![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F1tWXQzWIAIb7Ba?format=jpg&name=medium) ](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F1tWXQzWIAIb7Ba?format=jpg&name=medium) Russian propaganda show talks about destroying Odesa: > Prominent Russians talking about attacking the West no longer makes the news, such is its frequency. Now Belarusian president Lukashenko is getting in on the act: > ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2023, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5226 "2023-07-23T13:42:43Z")
Ahh yes. The old “I can’t control my wild dogs” play. Putin’s loose cannon Prigozhin just _might_ run amok in the West, and if so that’s totally the West’s fault, or maybe Prigo’s. But totally _not_ Putin’s. Yeah sure, that’ll fly. Not to say they won’t try it, but nobody in the West, public or government, is going to believe it’s a rogue act. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2023, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5227 "2023-07-23T13:50:56Z")
The Wagner menbers rarely give interviews. The BBC managed to talk with one. The BBC has a good reputation for accuracy and vetting sources. Gleb claims many of the men did not know why they were moved into Russia. It calls into question their willingness to aggressively fight a civil war. These were men following orders to redeploy. I think the situation would have changed dramatically if Russian bombers had attacked their positions. Imho many of these men weren’t committed to over throwing Putin or replacing the Ministry of Defense. Link [Wagner mutiny: Junior commander reveals his role in the challenge to Putin](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66247915) > [@](#): > > Gleb - not his real name - had previously been involved in the fighting for the symbolic town of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine. As the mutiny began, he was resting with his unit in barracks in the Russian-occupied Luhansk region. > > Early in the morning on 23 June they got the call to join a column of Wagner fighters leaving Ukraine. The order came from a Wagner commander who Gleb is reluctant to name for security reasons, but who was acting on orders from Prigozhin and the Wagner Command Council. > > “It’s a full deployment,” he was told. “We’re forming a column, let’s move out.” > > Gleb says no-one was told where the column was heading, but he was surprised when he realised they were moving away from the frontline. > > The Wagner fighters encountered absolutely no resistance, he says, as they crossed the Russian border into the Rostov region. > > “I didn’t see any border guards,” he recalls. “But the traffic police saluted us along the way.” Skipping ahead… > [@](#): > > As they approached Rostov-on-Don, the fighters were given orders to surround all the law enforcement agency buildings in the city and to occupy the military airport. Gleb’s unit was told to take control of the regional offices of the Federal Security Service (FSB). > > As they approached the building it appeared to be completely locked and empty. They flew a drone overhead to check for any signs of life. > > Eventually, after half an hour, a door opened and two people came out onto the street. > > “They said, ‘Guys, let’s make a deal’,” Gleb recounts. "I said, ‘What’s there to make a deal about? This is our city’. > > “So we just agreed that we would leave each other alone. They came out to smoke from time to time.” ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2023, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5228 "2023-07-23T15:53:04Z")
Sometimes the best way to win a fight is to not fight. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2023, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5229 "2023-07-23T19:12:23Z")
> [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](#): > > Prominent Russians talking about attacking the West no longer makes the news, such is its frequency. Now Belarusian president Lukashenko is getting in on the act: > > [https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1683059642023444481](https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1683059642023444481) well, if Wagner goes west at the same speed they headed for Bakhmut, than they shold hit the polish border sometime Oct 2089 ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2023, 11:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5230 "2023-07-24T11:22:05Z")
Russia is dangerously out of control. Imho Romania is a member of NATO. US troops are there. There’s also a NATO response force in Romania. It’s only a matter of time before NATO territory is bombed. Link [https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news\_192695.htm](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_192695.htm) > **[Ukraine war: Russia attacks grain stores at River Danube ports](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66289136)** > > The attacks targeted grain for export along the Danube just across from the Nato member state. > [@](#): > > One journalist described it as the closest hit to Romanian territory since the beginning of the war. Reni is about 200m from Romania across the Danube and 10km from the Romanian port city of Galati. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2023, 12:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5231 "2023-07-24T12:44:24Z")
Between the destruction of grain, this incident near Romania, and the re-deployment of Wagner to Belarus with recent rumblings about how they want to go to Poland I’m beginning to think Putin _wants_ war with NATO. Except by having Wagner now based in Belarus and possibly attacking from there he’s hoping NATO bombs/destroys Belarus rather than Russia proper. Because, after all, that’s what proxy buffer states are for, right? [sarcasm on my part, maybe not on Putin’s] ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2023, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5232 "2023-07-24T14:28:39Z")
I guess drone attacks are more precise than the Russian missiles they currently use in Ukraine. But can you imagine the response if NATO attacked targets that close to Russia or Belarus? ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2023, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5233 "2023-07-24T15:19:23Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > Between the destruction of grain, this incident near Romania, and the re-deployment of Wagner to Belarus with recent rumblings about how they want to go to Poland I’m beginning to think Putin _wants_ war with NATO. Except by having Wagner now based in Belarus and possibly attacking from there he’s hoping NATO bombs/destroys Belarus rather than Russia proper. Because, after all, that’s what proxy buffer states are for, right? [sarcasm on my part, maybe not on Putin’s] It seems like it. But I wonder what Putin gains by doing this. The only thing that makes sense is if he thinks NATO is too weak to fight back. Maybe Putin really believes we’ve sent so much stuff to Ukraine that we don’t have enough to defend NATO proper. Which seems absurd, but then again believing absurd things seems to be Putin’s specialty. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2023, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5234 "2023-07-24T15:22:43Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > But I wonder what Putin gains by doing this. Some people just want to watch the world burn. Plus it is as much of a show of power against the West (for domestic consumption) as Russia can manage at the moment. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2023, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5235 "2023-07-24T15:36:01Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > Plus it is as much of a show of power against the West (for domestic consumption) as Russia can manage at the moment. But if they actually attack, he won’t be showing power. He’ll be showing (or getting shown) a parade. Of NATO troops marching through downtown Minsk. There will likely be more than just one WWII era vintage tank. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2023, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5236 "2023-07-24T15:45:54Z")
Putin is master of the “I’m not touching you” school of military provocation. He knows if he goads NATO into a proactive response, they will lose massive amounts of support domestically and internationally. It would never get to a march through Minsk. It’s insane brinksmanship but it’s one of the few areas he’s very good at. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2023, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5237 "2023-07-24T15:56:33Z")
The problem comes when “I’m not touching you” so closely that I accidentally touch you. What happens when a munition goes off course and hits the wrong side of the river? ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2023, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5238 "2023-07-24T15:57:36Z")
> **[Hundreds of thousands of people fled Russia after it invaded Ukraine — and...](https://news.yahoo.com/hundreds-thousands-people-fled-russia-095327835.html)** > > Armenia, which was once known as the Silicon Valley of the Soviet Union, saw its 2022 GDP growth spike to 12.6%, per World Bank data. This is _very_ interesting. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2023, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5239 "2023-07-24T16:13:39Z")
Same thing that’s happened every time Russian military planes have “accidentally” flown over the Baltic states. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2023, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5240 "2023-07-24T16:22:28Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > Maybe Putin really believes we’ve sent so much stuff to Ukraine that we don’t have enough to defend NATO proper. That wouldn’t make sense. If NATO gets directly involved, it won’t be via ground forces (except in defense of a NATO nation’s borders) but through cruise missiles and air power; the stuff Ukraine can’t really project right now and is holding them back. “Russia was shooting missiles at Romania so we had to use air strikes to take out Russian missile installations to defend Romania”. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2023, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5241 "2023-07-24T16:27:58Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > The problem comes when “I’m not touching you” so closely that I accidentally touch you. What happens when a munition goes off course and hits the wrong side of the river? We’ve actually seen some weaponry land in Poland last year. WWIII did not ensue. In part, it might be because it could have been Ukrainian munitions. In part, it seemed to be an actual accident (it was juuuuuust over the border). So I think there’s a certain, small level of “oops” tolerated here. But… there’s a limit. A miscalculation could result in NATO getting involved and WWIII going hot. Which is why this situation is concerning and bears watching. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2023, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5242 "2023-07-24T16:28:28Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > That wouldn’t make sense. If NATO gets directly involved, it won’t be via ground forces (except in defense of a NATO nation’s borders) but through cruise missiles and air power; the stuff Ukraine can’t really project right now and is holding them back. “Russia was shooting missiles at Romania so we had to use air strikes to take out Russian missile installations to defend Romania”. I was thinking of a more direct scenario, like Wagner mercenaries, now that they are Belarusian rather than Russian, crossing the border into Poland, Lithuania, or Latvia. Since they’re now technically Belarussian, reprisals would be against Belarus rather than Russia. Presumably any such conflict would be settled quickly in NATO’s favor. Presumably losing his only true ally would also be a much bigger blow than whatever small benefit Putin might gain from getting to claim that Wagner briefly invaded Poland, Lithuania, and / or Latvia. Which means the only way such an attack would make sense is if Putin thinks that NATO is incapable of invading and quickly conquering Belarus. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2023, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5243 "2023-07-24T16:30:08Z")
**Moderating:** Speculation of this sort would be better in a different thread. Please drop it now in this thread. ---
**Author:** ![Kelevra](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/97f17d/32.png) [@Kelevra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kelevra)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2023, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/5244 "2023-07-24T19:34:07Z")
> [@Hypno-Toad](#): > > So what happens to de-fused mines? Are they stored away to be used later by the Ukrainians? Or are they not salvageable and destroyed/disposed of? There’s an American who goes there and does demining of agricultural areas. [Ryan Hendrickson](http://landmineremoval.org/) He says all the mines his organization removes are destroyed. I follow him on twitter. Tip of the spear is his handle. Really interesting videos of how they go about it. He also wrote a book called Tip of the Spear. I haven’t read it yet but it’s on my list. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972.md?page=256) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972.md?page=258)