# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2)

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972>\
**Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\
**Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\
**Created:** [October 29, 2022, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972 "2022-10-29T17:49:40Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 303

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**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\
**Post date:** [October 13, 2023, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/6152 "2023-10-13T01:41:25Z")

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I’m not thinking the US has any MIM-72s anywhere, not even in some Army surplus garbage boneyard someplace. It’s been 20+ years since the last was parked.

If any friendlies are still operating them, it can’t be many fire units still usable.

I’d sooner bet it’s gonna be quicky-integrated onto some other newer chassis / launcher. If you’re willing to fire the Aim-9M in boresight mode where the seeker is staring straight ahead, all you really need to integrate is a “prep to fire” signal when enemy is sighted or cued by a radar, followed by “fire” when you’ve got the launch head tracking the passing aircraft. Dirt simple using discrete voltages on discrete wires; this is not advanced cybernetic hardware; more like 1960s relay-driven telephone systems.

My bet is they integrate to fire them from SA-8 launchers. it’s not like UKR is going to get any more SA-8 missiles to shoot off those things.

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**Author:** ![smithsb](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smithsb/32/12107_2.png) [@smithsb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smithsb)\
**Post date:** [October 13, 2023, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/6153 "2023-10-13T03:00:13Z")

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We need to visit the military armament museums nearby to check for empty concrete pads 😉

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**Author:** ![Kelevra](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/97f17d/32.png) [@Kelevra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kelevra)\
**Post date:** [October 13, 2023, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/6154 "2023-10-13T16:10:07Z")

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Well it’s day 2. My understanding is that Russia has stopped sending armor and is now just sending infantry to be killed.

> <https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1712712142158201305?s=20>

That’s 26 tanks, 49 APVs and 44 artillery systems!  
On review I realized I was being like the Russians and ignoring the cost in people. Yesterday was 990 soldiers, todays report was 1030.

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**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\
**Post date:** [October 13, 2023, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/6155 "2023-10-13T16:24:49Z")

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Meat and grinders have a long and symbiotic relationship. Long may it reign on the Russian side of the contested part of Ukraine.

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**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\
**Post date:** [October 13, 2023, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/6156 "2023-10-13T17:54:06Z")

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Attacks on two Russian ships:

> **[Ukraine hits Russian navy ships with sea drones](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/13/russia-ukraine-boats-drones-sea/?pwapi_token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJyZWFzb24iOiJnaWZ0IiwibmJmIjoxNjk3MTY5NjAwLCJpc3MiOiJzdWJzY3JpcHRpb25zIiwiZXhwIjoxNjk4NTUxOTk5LCJpYXQiOjE2OTcxNjk2MDAsImp0aSI6ImQ0MWY0N2M4LTdhODctNGE2Zi1hNmQ0LThhYzUxN2ZmZGFjYSIsInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lndhc2hpbmd0b25wb3N0LmNvbS93b3JsZC8yMDIzLzEwLzEzL3J1c3NpYS11a3JhaW5lLWJvYXRzLWRyb25lcy1zZWEvIn0.1seR8jaP5dJ7tiMI-4hT3A63tVusMJTkIFQiomO7lHk&itid=gfta)**
>
> Ukraine is stepping up attacks on Russian naval assets in the Black Sea using new sea drones.

(gift link)

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**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\
**Post date:** [October 13, 2023, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/6157 "2023-10-13T18:54:59Z")

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I liked this part from that article: "After the first [attack], Russian minesweepers and divers were unable to discover our ‘know-how,’” the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject. “[The SBU] warns Muscovites that there is no need to go through Ukrainian waters if you want to preserve at least some remnants of your fleet.”

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**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\
**Post date:** [October 13, 2023, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/6158 "2023-10-13T19:05:32Z")

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Has there ever been any confirmation about the casualties from the Ukraine strike on Black Sea Fleet HQ last month? There was a rumour that the overall commander of the Fleet was killed. Has that been confirmed?

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**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\
**Post date:** [October 13, 2023, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/6159 "2023-10-13T19:11:10Z")

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> [@Northern\_Piper](#):
>
> There was a rumour that the overall commander of the Fleet was killed. Has that been confirmed?

I think that one was mis-reported. Russia showed some videos with him after the strike, and I don’t think anyone was able to show that those videos were fake, so I think it’s been accepted that the initial reports were wrong.

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**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\
**Post date:** [October 13, 2023, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/6160 "2023-10-13T20:24:59Z")

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impressive and inspiring …

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**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\
**Post date:** [October 14, 2023, 4:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/6161 "2023-10-14T04:32:25Z")

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Russian artillery barrels are getting worn out and inaccurate. ISW reports Ukrainian minefields are slowing down Russian forces around Avdiivka.

Oh no, the \*\*\*Coke plant is in jeopardy. What will people drink. 😉

\*\*\*yeah, it’s actually for making steel.

Link [Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 13, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-13-2023)

> [@](#):
>
> **Ongoing Russian offensive operations throughout the Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast area on October 13 reportedly faced setbacks around the city.** Russian sources claimed that Russian forces continued to attack areas north and south of Avdiivka, and geolocated footage published on October 12 and 13 indicates that Russian forces advanced south of Krasnohorivka (5km north of Avdiivka) and southeast of Pervomaiske (11km southwest of Avdiivka).[1] Russian sources also published conflicting reports about previous claims by Russian sources of Russian control of the Avdiivka Coke Plant, and ISW has not observed any evidence to confirm that Russian forces control the plant as of publication.[2] Ukrainian military officials reported that Ukrainian forces continue to repel Russian attacks around Avdiivka.[3] A Russian milblogger noted that Ukrainian forces are using minefields to slow down Russian advances in the Avdiivka direction.[4] A Russian volunteer in the 4th Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Brigade (2nd Army Corps, Southern Military District) claimed that worn out barrels are reducing the accuracy of Russian artillery near Avdiivka, a complaint about Russian artillery that ISW has previously observed from Russian sources.[5] The volunteer assessed that Russian forces can ”compress the [Ukrainian] perimeter” by capturing less fortified Ukrainian-held territory near Avdiivka, but expressed concern that Russian generals will misinterpret these limited advances and try to speed up offensive efforts towards Avdiivka. **The volunteer noted that such a misinterpretation may lead Russian forces to “beat on concrete” fortifications until these forces run out.**

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**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\
**Post date:** [October 14, 2023, 12:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/6162 "2023-10-14T12:27:38Z")

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Ukraine says their partisans blew up a Russian train in Melitopol:

> **[Melitopol Partisans Blow Up Russian Train, Cut Off Troop Supplies](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/22712)**
>
> Ukrainian guerrillas have struck again, blowing up a Russian train in occupied territory. The train was used to bring supplies to Russian troops and carry back damage equipment.

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**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\
**Post date:** [October 14, 2023, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/6163 "2023-10-14T16:49:16Z")

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What is the SBU?

If the reports are accurate than it really sets back the goal Russia had for seizing the Crimean peninsula in the first place – a warm-water port.

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**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\
**Post date:** [October 14, 2023, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/6164 "2023-10-14T16:52:35Z")

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With apologies to Monty Python …

> Nobody expects the Ukrainian SBU!

> **[Security Service of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Security_Service_of_Ukraine)**
>
> The Security Service of Ukraine (Ukrainian: Служба безпеки України, romanized: Sluzhba bezpeky Ukrainy) or SBU (Ukrainian: СБУ) is the law enforcement authority and main intelligence and security agency of the Ukrainian government, in the areas of counter-intelligence activity and combating organized crime and terrorism. The Constitution of Ukraine defines the SBU as a military formation, and its staff are considered military personnel with ranks. It is subordinated directly under the authority...

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**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\
**Post date:** [October 14, 2023, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/6165 "2023-10-14T17:47:34Z")

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Ah, so it’s a veiled threat then. Context understood.

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**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\
**Post date:** [October 14, 2023, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/6166 "2023-10-14T17:57:25Z")

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Doesn’t this mean that Sevastapol has lost its value as a deep-water port? Even if Ukraine retakes Crimea, it’s close enough to Russian territory that Russia could make similar offensive measures?

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**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\
**Post date:** [October 14, 2023, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/6167 "2023-10-14T18:14:55Z")

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For the duration of active hostilities, I’d say “Yes”; it’s too dangerous for either side to use freely as a naval base.

Once whatever sort of cold war or hot peace settles in between Russia and Ukraine, Sevastopol will remain vulnerable. As does every harbor on Earth near a hostile border. IOW every port in NK, SK, Cuba, Hong Kong, and maybe Taiwan. And in light of very recent events, Israel.

It’s all a matter of how much strategic warning of impending hostilities you expect to have. Or can stand to be surprised about.

Merchant ships being more replaceable than naval vessels, I’d expect Sevastopol to still be a commerce port during a post-war ceasefire / cold war era even if the Ukrainian Navy was unwilling to base there.

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**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [October 14, 2023, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/6168 "2023-10-14T19:05:15Z")

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Ukraine currently has basically no navy (unless you count things like drone boats), and while they might wish to change that in the future, that would be after the current conflict is ended and they’re admitted to NATO. So the value of a naval port is essentially irrelevant to them.

Even if they managed to capture some Russian warships intact (which I wouldn’t put past them), it takes time to train up crews to man them effectively.

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**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\
**Post date:** [October 14, 2023, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/6169 "2023-10-14T20:34:01Z")

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Ukraine is purchasing two Ada-class corvettes from Turkey, the first of which was launched last fall and is expected to be complete some time in 2024. [Turkish shipyard launches Ukraine's 1st MILGEM corvette - Naval News](https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/10/turkish-shipyard-launches-hetman-ivan-mazepa/) The second was just laid down a couple months ago. If circumstances remain as they are currently, it wouldn’t shock me if Ukraine didn’t take delivery until the war is over, as they would basically just be targets given that Ukraine could not really shield them from Russian aviation. However, these vessels are serious warships. They are primarily designed as anti-sub platforms, but carry anti-ship missiles (Harpoon, Neptune, possibly others) as well, and will no doubt have some AA capability.

As for post-war, I would expect a re-constituted Ukrainian navy to be based in Sevastopol (on the assumption that the Russians don’t retain control of Crimea). While Odesa also has good port facilities, there’s a reason the USSR always based its fleet in Sevastopol. It is the superior strategic location. Also, if Ukraine is admitted to NATO, one might expect them to play host to USN, RN, or other allied vessels in Sevastopol. This would make the Black Sea almost as unwelcoming for the Russian navy as the Baltic Sea is. Poor things, at least they’ll still have Murmansk.

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**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\
**Post date:** [October 14, 2023, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/6170 "2023-10-14T20:51:46Z")

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The Russians are expending a lot of soldiers and assets. The pressure from Moscow to break through Ukrainian lines must be intense.

The Guardian feed

> [@](#):
>
> Fighting along the northern section of Ukraine’s eastern front has significantly worsened in recent days, with dozens of daily assaults by Russian forces, the commander of **Kyiv** ’s ground forces has said.
> 
> **Oleksandr Syrskyi** , who was visiting troops in the area, said Russian forces had regrouped after suffering losses and were attacking around the village of **Makiivka** and towards the city of **Kupiansk** , according to a report by Reuters.
> 
> “The main objective of the enemy is the defeat of a grouping of our troops, the encirclement of Kupiansk and to reach the Oskil River,” he said in comments carried by an official military platform.
> 
> He also said that despite the Russian attacks, Ukrainian troops had been ready and were holding their ground.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\
**Post date:** [October 14, 2023, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/6171 "2023-10-14T20:52:44Z")

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_Apropos_ of comments earlier today about Sevastopol …

In another admirable display of Ukrainian _chutzpah_, at the launching of that Ada-class corvette they announced its home port is Sevastapol, Ukraine. It’s just not parked there … yet.

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