# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2) **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\ **Created:** [October 29, 2022, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972 "2022-10-29T17:49:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 31
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/601 "2022-11-15T19:41:11Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > I wouldn’t. I would assume “testing the waters”. Putin may be thinking “How much will NATO respond?” I’m of the opinion that it’s still best to listen to Fleming. “Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action.” Make it clear this was unacceptable, move more assets into Poland and Eastern Europe, and keep supplying Ukraine. No need to really do more unless it happens again. ---
**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/602 "2022-11-15T19:43:47Z")
It could potentially lead to a no-fly zone over western Ukraine, or Poland shooting down any missiles over Ukraine that come near its border. ---
**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/603 "2022-11-15T19:47:24Z")
Russian missile hitting a Polish farm? I’m thinking high probability of a mistake or malfunction, but will second Ian Fleming’s sentiments. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/604 "2022-11-15T20:30:56Z")
Why would Putin _want_ to attack NATO countries right now? ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/605 "2022-11-15T20:36:39Z")
Perhaps his advisors are telling him that NATO is weak, and will capitulate easily if challenged. Because they know that’s what he wants to hear. Perhaps he’s just testing the boundaries. Just how much he can get away with. How about sending missiles to an airport in Poland next? Electrical infrastructure next? Just where is NATO’s line? ---
**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/606 "2022-11-15T20:52:02Z")
> > Poland may invoke Article 4 (which isn’t Article 5): > > [@](#): > > Poland is much more likely to invoke Article Four, which states, “the parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.” This would be the diplomatic equivalent of a warning shot; since NATO was established in 1949, “Article 4 has been invoked seven times. This past February, Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia requested to hold consultations under Article 4 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.” This would effectively say that this seemingly accidental strike into Poland wouldn’t bring kinetic or cyber retaliation . . . but the next one may very well bring a serious, unified NATO response. > **[Does the Moment Call for NATO’s Article Four or Article Five? | National Review](https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/does-the-moment-call-for-natos-article-four-or-article-five/)** > > There is no reason for the U.S. and its allies to get into a shooting war with Russia over what was, as far as we know at this point, bad aim. ---
**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/607 "2022-11-15T20:57:51Z")
Russia’s statement: > Don’t believe anything until the Kremlin denies it. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/608 "2022-11-15T20:59:59Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > I wouldn’t. I would assume “testing the waters”. Putin may be thinking “How much will NATO respond?” > > And I think the first response should be to massively support anti-missile systems in Ukraine, and increase military support to Ukraine. I agree, do more of the same but ^2 (squared, turbocharged, whatever you want to call it) … let the Ukr do the fighting and arm them with missile defense and long range himars up to their eyebrows, so they can keep doing what they do best … kick the russians where it hurts them most - and then kick them again! > [@Leaper](#): > > Why would Putin _want_ to attack NATO countries right now? b/c it is clear by now that he is not the 4d-chess-genious that he pretended to be … more of an ill informed narcistic ego a-hole in a death-spiral those cruise missiles dont land somewhere “by chance” - they fly where they are programmed to fly to ---
**Author:** ![Folacin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/folacin/32/3195_2.png) [@Folacin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Folacin)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/609 "2022-11-15T21:08:47Z")
> [@Al128](#): > > those cruise missiles dont land somewhere “by chance” - they fly where they are programmed to fly to I generally agree, but these are Russian weapons, so it’s possible someone sold one of the guidance chips for a pack of cigarettes and caused them to go off course. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/610 "2022-11-15T21:25:36Z")
the fog is dense here … I just saw a tweet showing a part of a motor of a SAM rocket (with long numbers as model type) that was identical to the debris seen in poland … but the tweet disappeared: also: > so there might be a chance that this is a S-300 missile (used by both Ukr and RU forces) … again, lots of fog of war here … ---
**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/611 "2022-11-15T21:39:18Z")
The S-300 missile doesn’t have the curvature near the fins: [![](https://images.jpost.com/image/upload/f_auto,fl_lossy/t_JM_LargeImageFaceDetect/504507) ](https://images.jpost.com/image/upload/f_auto,fl_lossy/t_JM_LargeImageFaceDetect/504507) The Kh-55 does, though: [![](https://en.missilery.info/files/m/x55/x-55.jpg) ](https://en.missilery.info/files/m/x55/x-55.jpg) ---
**Author:** ![Seanette](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/seanette/32/9139_2.png) [@Seanette](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Seanette)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/612 "2022-11-15T21:40:43Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Why would Putin _want_ to attack NATO countries right now? Insanity? As deranged as this whole thing has been, trying to figure out rational reasons behind Putin’s actions seems futile. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/613 "2022-11-15T21:42:48Z")
Decent chance it’s an accident, either Russia’s or Ukraine’s. Obviously Ukraine is going to blame Russia, regardless of the truth, they’ll want to exploit this to get more supplies at the minimum. Russia is terrified of NATO getting involved. They go out of their way to avoid antagonizing them. I don’t put any stock in the “maybe Putin is just dumb as shit and all his advisors are lying to him so he bombed a farm!” This is almost certainly accidental, but still think it results in increased Western weaponry to Ukraine. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/614 "2022-11-15T21:44:18Z")
They are guided, but I guess it’s possible someone fat fingered the coordinates. Maybe they should have used what.three.words instead. ---
**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/615 "2022-11-15T21:52:32Z")
Orwell’s doublethink: > ---
**Author:** ![Moris](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moris/32/2846_2.png) [@Moris](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moris)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/616 "2022-11-15T22:04:37Z")
This is not the [first](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/soviet-era-drone-believed-ukraine-crashes-croatia-zagreb-says-2022-03-11/) or even the [second](https://www.romania-insider.com/mq9-reaper-drone-crashes-romania-july-2022) time. ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/617 "2022-11-15T22:11:20Z")
I don’t see how either of those is relevant. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/618 "2022-11-15T23:05:47Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Perhaps he’s just testing the boundaries. That was my first thought. > [@Leaper](#): > > Why would Putin _want_ to attack NATO countries right now? To kill nazis or satanists. Or maybe Martians. It’s not like he had a good reason to do any of this. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/619 "2022-11-15T23:06:19Z")
> [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](#): > > The Kh-55 does, though: Wikipedia says that Ukraine used to have Kh-55s, but scrapped about 487 of them and returned about 587 to Russia. Current operators are Iran, China, and Russia. ---
**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/620 "2022-11-15T23:17:55Z")
> [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](#): > > The Kh-55 does, though: I mistook the photo of the damaged missile as being from today’s incident, which it apparently was not. These people know weapons: > [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972.md?page=30) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972.md?page=32)