# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2) **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\ **Created:** [October 29, 2022, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972 "2022-10-29T17:49:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 385
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2025, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/7815 "2025-02-19T19:56:47Z")
Ukraine can refuse any _deal_ that doesn’t support their National interests. Especially if they aren’t allowed to participate in negotiations. A lot depends on Europe’s continued commitment to support Ukraine. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2025, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/7816 "2025-02-20T03:59:34Z")
New reporting states that eight Russian drone operators were seriously wounded when their booby-trapped goggles exploded earlier this month. > **[Eight Russian drone operators blinded after FPV C4-rigged goggles explode,...](https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/02/19/eight-russian-drone-operators-blinded-after-fpv-c4-rigged-goggles-explode-media-report/)** > > Approximately 80 sets were reportedly sent to Russian military units by volunteer organizations between January-February 2025. Russians earlier claimed no one was hurt. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2025, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/7817 "2025-03-20T23:16:23Z")
Ukraine leaves marks on Engels air force base: > **[🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social)](https://bsky.app/profile/specialkhersoncat.bsky.social/post/3lks5u6sq2k2p)** > > 🍄/1. Tonight drones targeted Russian military airfield in Engels, Saratov region of Russia. A strong explosion was reported. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2025, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/7818 "2025-03-22T16:30:06Z")
I’m not surprised. It’s frustrating Putin isn’t being called out by the negotiations for this strategy. It sounds like the war will continue with even more disinformation and confusion. Link [Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 21, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-21-2025) > [@](#): > > **The Kremlin is weaponizing ongoing ceasefire negotiations and deliberately misrepresenting the status and terms of a future ceasefire agreement in order to delay and undermine negotiations for a settlement to the war.** The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on March 21 that Ukrainian forces blew up the Sudzha gas distribution station in Kursk Oblast while withdrawing on the night of March 20 to 21 in order to discredit Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “peace initiatives” and to provoke Russia.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff denied the Russian MoD’s claim and stated that Russian forces shelled the station, causing a fire.[2] The Ukrainian General Staff warned that Russian authorities are attempting to mislead the international community and discredit Ukraine. Footage published on March 21 shows a fire at the station, although ISW cannot independently verify the cause of the fire.[3] Russian officials seized on the fire to claim falsely that Ukrainian forces violated the proposed 30-day ceasefire banning Russian and Ukrainian strikes on civilian and energy facilities, which is not yet formally in effect and terms of which remain disputed.[4] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed that Russian forces are “implementing” an order from Putin to refrain from striking Ukrainian energy infrastructure in accordance with the US ceasefire proposal.[5] Russian milbloggers observed that the ceasefire proposal has not come into force yet, however, and acknowledged that Russia has continued nightly strikes on Ukraine, including Ukraine’s port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast, in recent days.[6] Founder of the Kremlin-awarded _Rybar_ telegram channel, Mikhail Zvinchuk, recently published a video of himself mocking US officials for believing that Russia is currently or intends to commit to the proposed temporary ceasefire in the area.[7] The exact contours of Putin’s supposed order or a future moratorium on energy and infrastructure strikes between Russia and Ukraine remain unclear as of this report. > > **Kremlin officials are leveraging narratives about Ukrainian strikes and combat operations in Russian territory to justify rejecting peace negotiations with Ukraine and continuing the war to a domestic Russian audience.** ---
**Author:** ![Askance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askance/32/8281_2.png) [@Askance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askance)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2025, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/7819 "2025-03-23T02:24:27Z")
Yes, I fail to understand why people think Putin has any interest in stopping the war - he feels he’s winning and I bet has ways of spinning out their available resources for another year or two. Which may well break Ukraine, I’m sorry to say. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2025, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/7820 "2025-03-23T03:58:20Z")
Ukraine’s drone program is one of their successes. They’ve consistently struck infrastructure deep within Russia. [Ukraine is building their own drones that reach deep into Russia.](https://www.npr.org/2024/11/20/nx-s1-5065480/ukraine-war-drones-russia) Protecting Russian energy Infrastructure is the first requirement that Russia included in the purposed cease fire. Meanwhile nothing has been said about Russian troops advancing into Ukraine. The fighting on the front lines hasn’t been included in the purposed ceasefire. (so far) ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2025, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/7821 "2025-03-23T15:55:56Z")
What’s the logic even supposed to be, there? “Ukraine is evil because they’re not yet complying with the cease-fire agreement that doesn’t even exist yet, but Russia is virtuous because we’re planning on complying with it eventually at some unspecified time in the future”? Even if everything Russia is saying were 100% factually correct, there’s still a big nothingburger here. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2025, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/7822 "2025-03-23T16:08:47Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > What’s the logic even supposed to be, there? It’s just the standard Trump/Putin playbook when it comes to “deals”. They want to get everything they want, and give you nothing in return, and you’re evil&nasty if you don’t immediately comply. They both think they’re powerful enough to make this work, despite it obviously failing so often. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2025, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/7823 "2025-04-10T01:47:15Z")
Ukraine has captured Chinese fighting for Russia. Were they mercenaries or soldiers sent from China’s military? China is looking into it. > **[Ukraine captures Chinese citizens who fought with Russian army, Zelenskyy says](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-china-citizens-captured-zelenskyy-beijing-kremlin-rcna200174)** > > The Ukrainian president said he had instructed his Foreign Affairs Ministry to immediately contact Beijing and find out “how China is going to react to this.” ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2025, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/7824 "2025-04-13T16:52:48Z")
[Useful map from the BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682): [![](https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/7C80/production/_133727813_ukraine_control_quad-2x_640_2303-nc.png.webp) ](https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/7C80/production/_133727813_ukraine_control_quad-2x_640_2303-nc.png.webp) Russia has taken a lot of land, but the Ukraine has held out remarkably well. The Ukraine Allies pledge another €21 billion in aid. > **[Ukraine allies pledge €21bn in fresh military support to Kyiv](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg2q323lg3o)** > > Europe's defence ministers said they saw no sign of an end to the war. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2025, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/7825 "2025-04-13T23:26:06Z")
So, Russia’s lost all the ground they took in the north, and after three years of grinding through massive amounts of casualties (dead and wounded) and huge depletions of military hardware, that’s as far as they’ve gotten? At that rate it would take them another couple of decades at least to conquer the rest of Ukraine. That doesn’t seem sustainable for Putin’s regime. Yes, I know the war is highly unlikely to follow that script, for many reasons, but the (lack of) progression on the maps is striking; seems more comparable to the stalemate of World War I than the course of more modern wars. Assuming the European countries continue their support, how much longer can Russia keep going? ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2025, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/7826 "2025-04-13T23:27:36Z")
The continued support of Europe should be able to sustain Ukraine. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2025, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/7827 "2025-04-14T00:17:40Z")
As long the oil holds out. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2025, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/7828 "2025-04-14T00:32:49Z")
But that assumes oil demand and consequently prices won’t collapse if the world goes into a deep recession, if not outright depression, thanks in large part to Trump’s erratic attacks on the economy and world order. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2025, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/7829 "2025-04-14T02:16:13Z")
> [@EddyTeddyFreddy](#): > > At that rate it would take them another couple of decades at least to conquer the rest of Ukraine. It doesn’t necessarily work like that. It can, but sometimes mounting casualties and declining resources against a larger opponent just slowly ratchets up the despair until morale suddenly collapses and everything just disintegrates. Ukraine might still be slugging away in five years or they could be a dependency in six months. It’s very hard to gauge when a war of attrition might just blow up. Very similarly for Russia by the way. If Putin dies tomorrow and a genuine succession struggle breaks out, it’s conceivable you could see the Russian position collapse. It’s rather less likely than Ukraine succumbing, but it could happen. Authoritarian regimes are often precarious. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2025, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/7830 "2025-04-14T02:26:33Z")
Indeed, @Tamerlane, I very much doubt my hypothetical will happen. But I was struck by how little overall success the Russians have had after three years of hurling so much blood and treasure at what on paper would seem to have been a cakewalk conquest. Yes, yes, of course the many incompetencies and corruption of the Russian side and the death before dishonor courage of the Ukrainians, combined with the logistical support of the West, explain much of why the past three years have gone the way they did but do not predict the eventual outcome. One wild card, of course, is the current US maladministration’s about-face on European and Russian foreign relations. ---
**Author:** ![Bookkeeper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bookkeeper/32/281_2.png) [@Bookkeeper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bookkeeper)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2025, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/7831 "2025-04-14T14:12:39Z")
Readers of this thread may like to also read the blog posts of Phillips P. O’Brien ([Weekend Update #128: The Third Year: A Test Of Modern War](https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-128-the-third-year)) for ongoing analysis of the war. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2025, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/7832 "2025-04-16T03:31:53Z")
This article fully explains why there’s no hope for peace until something significant changes in Russia’s leadership. I quoted the demands to demilitarize. It’s a demand for total surrender. Leaving Ukraine defenseless against further Russian aggression. > **[Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-15-2025)** > > Two high-ranking members of Russian President Vladimir Putin's inner circle reiterated Putin's June 2024 non-negotiable demands that any resolution of the war in Ukraine must result in regime change, extensive territorial concessions, and long-term > [@](#): > > **Ukraine must demilitarize.** Putin named “demilitarization” as one of the main goals of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and stated on July 4, 2024, that Ukraine should undergo “irreversible” “demilitarization” in the event of a future ceasefire.[5] Russia demanded in the April 2022 Istanbul Protocol draft agreement that Ukraine shrink its military beyond pre-2022 levels and commit to never fielding a military capable of defending the country against future Russian aggression.[6] Russia demanded in the protocol that the Ukrainian military should be confined to fewer than 85,000 active-duty personnel, fewer than 15,000 National Guard personnel, and fewer than 1,400 tanks and armored vehicles. The pre-2022 Ukrainian military had 196,600 active-duty personnel, 60,000 National Guard personnel, and over 3,000 tanks and armored vehicles. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2025, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/7833 "2025-04-27T20:25:13Z")
Probably drone strikes. Russia blames it on accidents. Glad to see Ukraine’s drones are still penetrating deep into Russia. > **[​The 51st GRAU Arsenal 60 km from Moscow Was Destroyed: Why it Was the Most...](https://en.defence-ua.com/news/the_51st_grau_arsenal_60_km_from_moscow_was_destroyed_why_it_was_the_most_difficult_target_and_what_was_hidden_inside-14272.html)** > > The 51st arsenal of the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate (GRAU) of the russian Ministry of Defense had a design capacity of 264,000 tons of various ammunition and was protected by the most heavily concentrated air defense system in the russian... > **[New satellite image shows tremendous damage after one of Russia's largest...](https://www.yahoo.com/news/satellite-image-shows-tremendous-damage-212723617.html)** > > Russia's 51st Main Missile and Artillery Directorate (GRAU) Arsenal caught fire and exploded earlier in the week. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2025, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/7834 "2025-04-28T20:00:21Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > This article fully explains why there’s no hope for peace until something significant changes in Russia’s leadership. > > I quoted the demands to demilitarize. It’s a demand for total surrender. Leaving Ukraine defenseless against further Russian aggression. > > [Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 15, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-15-2025) I mentioned that early on in this thread- the only hope for real peace is no more Putin. Yeah, if Ukraine gets rid of it’s army, Putin will just march in there a day afterwards. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972.md?page=384) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972.md?page=386)