# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2) **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\ **Created:** [October 29, 2022, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972 "2022-10-29T17:49:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 47
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2022, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/923 "2022-12-05T00:42:07Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > I assume that if he can get out of this expensive war, and save face, he will. Then we have different assumptions. Of course Putin would like to save face, but that ship has long since sailed. The whole world now knows that the Russian military sucks. In a one vs. one without nukes, Russia would likely lose to a mid-level western power like Poland. Of course he’s not worried about that because he knows that even without nukes the democracies of the world have no interest in conquering Russia. It’s now obvious that powerful authoritarian regimes also have no such interest because if they did, they would have taken advantage of Russia’s weakened situation by now. What he really wants is a genocide of the Ukrainian people.Getting him to give up on that would be like trying to convince Hitler to stop killing the Jews as long as he gets to keep Austria and Czechoslovakia. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2022, 4:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/924 "2022-12-05T04:26:52Z")
Todays ISW can be summarized as _Keep the pedal to the metal_. Keep pushing forward through the winter and maintain the initiative. It will be interesting to see where Ukraine strikes again. I’m wondering if Crimea might be a softer target than Donbas? The satellite photos may show less fortifications in Crimea. Cite [Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 4 | Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-4) > [@](#): > > **Ukraine’s ability to maintain the military initiative and continue the momentum of its current operational successes depends on Ukrainian forces continuing to conduct successive operations through the winter of 2022-2023.** Russia lost the initiative in summer 2022 after its offensive in Donbas culminated.[7] Ukrainian forces gained and have retained the initiative since August 2022 and have been conducting a series of successful successive operations since then: Ukraine liberated most of Kharkiv Oblast in September, Kherson City in November, and is currently setting conditions for more Ukrainian pushes elsewhere this winter.[8] Successive operations are a key part of Ukraine’s campaign design. A series of successive Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts demonstrates the Ukrainian military‘s remarkable operational planning skill and knowledge of the strengths of Soviet operational art. Soviet operational art emphasizes that militaries can only obtain their strategic objectives through the cumulative operational success of _successive operations ideally conducted without operational pauses between them_ .[9] Recent official Ukrainian statements make clear that Ukraine’s campaign design is designed to allow a series of successive operations to deprive Russia of the initiative, defeat the Russian military, and liberate more Ukrainian territory. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2022, 5:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/925 "2022-12-05T05:19:04Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > I’m wondering if Crimea might be a softer target than Donbas? You have to get through [Kherson](https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/RussianDefensesinKhersonMap2d.png) first. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2022, 5:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/926 "2022-12-05T05:25:48Z")
Reports say Kherson is being heavily shelled. Russian forces are dug in. Your correct Ukraine has to counterstrike Kherson. Hopefully the Russian troops will suffer in the winter cold and become demoralized. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2022, 12:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/927 "2022-12-05T12:13:01Z")
There are reports Russian soldiers are suffering in the winter cold and becoming _dead_ due to lack of such basics as gloves and boots and winter gear, lack of food, lack of means to provide heat where they’re dug in… ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2022, 12:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/928 "2022-12-05T12:22:31Z")
I always feel for the innocent collateral damage in these cases-is it possible it’s not Ukraine-based but from a sympathetic country? Or Russian but framing Ukraine? ---
**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2022, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/929 "2022-12-05T13:32:21Z")
And owing to the lack of bridges, it ultimately means having to go through Zaporizhia before approaching Kherson oblast from the east. But yes, even with the recent Russian upgrades to fortification made in Kherson, it’s still a much softer target than the Donbas. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2022, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/930 "2022-12-05T14:02:04Z")
> [@Cardigan](#): > > And owing to the lack of bridges, it ultimately means having to go through Zaporizhia before approaching Kherson oblast from the east. At which point Russia will be in a tight spot on the left bank of the Dnipro. Either they can retreat back to Crimea, or end up facing a hammer and anvil type maneuver and having all their troops in Kherson cut off from retreat. I bet Putin will choose the latter. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2022, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/931 "2022-12-05T14:09:45Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > There are reports Russian soldiers are suffering in the winter cold and becoming _dead_ due to lack of such basics as gloves and boots and winter gear, I’m genuinely surprised; can’t they just take, y’know, gloves from Ukrainians? ---
**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2022, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/932 "2022-12-05T14:17:57Z")
Here’s a video I saw recently where it’s explained that the land approaches to the Crimean peninsula are very limited, which you’d think would favor the defender, but at the same time the peninsula’s geography isolates it in terms of logistics. The maker of the video argues compellingly that the one and only reason Russia prizes Crimea is the naval base at Sevastopol, and the creation of the land bridge to Crimea matters far more to Russia than the Luhansk and Donetsk provinces that Putin publicly claims as being their strategic objective. [The Hidden Reason Ukraine Is Optimistic about Crimea - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIE1g8kqIpk) ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2022, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/933 "2022-12-05T15:52:37Z")
> [@Cardigan](#): > > Here’s a video I saw recently where it’s explained that the land approaches to the Crimean peninsula are very limited, which you’d think would favor the defender, but at the same time the peninsula’s geography isolates it in terms of logistics. The maker of the video argues compellingly that the one and only reason Russia prizes Crimea is the naval base at Sevastopol, and the creation of the land bridge to Crimea matters far more to Russia than the Luhansk and Donetsk provinces that Putin publicly claims as being their strategic objective. I just watched that video. It makes sense. Just looking at the map, Ukraine making a wedge from Zaporizhzhia down to Melitopol seems like it would be an excellent next step. On the other hand, if this is the strategic lynchpin (and I agree that it certainly seems like it is), I wonder why Russia is using up so much force against Bakhmut. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2022, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/934 "2022-12-05T16:10:22Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > I just watched that video. It makes sense. Just looking at the map, Ukraine making a wedge from Zaporizhzhia down to Melitopol seems like it would be an excellent next step. Even just a broad wedge as far as Tokmak would _almost_ but not quite cut off the land link to Kherson and Crimea, because at that point, you would totally cut off a lot of the roads, and also would be within medium-range missile range of the rest of the supply route with enough room to not expose them to counterbattery fire. You probably wouldn’t want to hit every convoy with a missile since it is expensive (although less expensive than longer range missiles), but enough so that the route is distinctly perilous. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2022, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/935 "2022-12-05T16:17:46Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > On the other hand, if this is the strategic lynchpin (and I agree that it certainly seems like it is), I wonder why Russia is using up so much force against Bakhmut. Figuring out why Bakhmut seems so important to the Russians is going to be a good topic for historians of this war. Ukraine’s defense makes sense, because they’re being handed an opportunity to bleed Russia in an area that minimizes risk to civilian populations, but why is Russia so determined to take this place? Is it just as simple as someone with influence has gotten their ego all wrapped up in winning this one fight? Or is there something weirder or more sinister in play? ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2022, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/936 "2022-12-05T16:18:33Z")
Kherson and Crimea seems like the best approach. I’m not convinced Ukraine will be seen as liberators in Donbas. Depends on how Russian forces have treated the Russians that live in Donbas. ---
**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2022, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/937 "2022-12-05T16:22:28Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > I wonder why Russia is using up so much force against Bakhmut. Keep in mind this portion of the front is being managed by a private military company (Wagner). The owner, Prigozhin, could be trying to demonstrate that his private army are the only Russians moving forward at a time when all ministry of defense forces are either stationary or retreating. Prigozhin couldn’t care less how many prisoners die in frontal attacks so long as he can make some sort of argument they’re moving forward. His influence campaign seems to be working and already some are [comparing him to Rasputin](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34snvJqYIhA). ---
**Author:** ![smithsb](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smithsb/32/12107_2.png) [@smithsb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smithsb)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2022, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/938 "2022-12-05T16:28:49Z")
· > ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2022, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/939 "2022-12-05T16:39:49Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > Kherson and Crimea seems like the best approach. > > I’m not convinced Ukraine will be seen as liberators in Donbas. Depends on how Russian forces have treated the Russians that live in Donbas. That’s a part of it. The bigger part is that taking territory in Kherson and (hopefully eventually) Crimea shrinks the border with Russia, while taking territory in Luhansk and Donetsk just shifts the border to the east. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2022, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/940 "2022-12-05T17:33:38Z")
BBC is reporting major explosions at two Russian air bases, “hundreds of kilometres” from the Ukraine border. One of them apparently has big strategic bombers, capable of firing cruise missiles. Ukraine has not commented officially, but there’s been a tweet: > [@](#): > > However, presidential adviser Mykhaylo Podolyak appeared to [refer to the reported incidents in a tweet](https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1599696436257357824), writing: “If something is launched into [an]other countries’ airspace, sooner or later unknown flying objects will return to departure point.” Sounds similar to the “Maybe god needs a helicopter” quote some months ago. > **[Ukraine war: Russian military airfields hit by explosions](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63857451)** > > Three people are killed by explosions at the airfields, which Russia blames on Ukrainian drones. ---
**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2022, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/941 "2022-12-05T18:05:11Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > BBC is reporting major explosions at two Russian air bases, “hundreds of kilometres” from the Ukraine border. Around 800+ kilometers! Wonder how they struck that far into Russian territory? The Russians are blaming a UAV, if so, that’s incredibly damning for the Russkies, but what really did it? ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2022, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/942 "2022-12-05T18:33:23Z")
> [@Cardigan](#): > > if so, that’s incredibly damning for the Russkies, but what really did it? sometimes I suspect that the “drone” story is just a cover because there are teams inside Russia tasked with blowing shit up, and they want to keep this a secret. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972.md?page=46) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972.md?page=48)