# Russia invades Ukraine -- The regional situation **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [December 30, 2023, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349 "2023-12-30T18:43:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2024, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/221 "2024-03-20T14:42:40Z")
> [@gnoitall](#): > > Correction: Russian and **Belarusian** , not Ukrainian. Yes, sorry. I was thinking about Ukraine as I was typing. ---
**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2024, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/222 "2024-03-20T14:49:21Z")
Perfectly understandable. And I’m cynical enough to picture how a bizzare kind of both-sides-ism may lead someone to punish both parties, the aggressor and the victim, on some kind of psychotic “it takes two” rationale. I’m glad the IOC is doing something non-shitty in the news. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2024, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/223 "2024-03-20T15:21:16Z")
I keep reading about how the A-10 is unsuitable for Ukraine because it is slow and could be easily shot down, but then how is that any different than the Su-25s which Ukraine has been using very ably in this war for two years? ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2024, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/224 "2024-03-20T16:24:35Z")
Weren’t the Russians already banned from competing as a team for some sort of doping shenanigans? ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2024, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/225 "2024-03-20T16:36:27Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > I keep reading about how the A-10 is unsuitable for Ukraine because it is slow and could be easily shot down, but then how is that any different than the Su-25s which Ukraine has been using very ably in this war for two years? I haven’t been following the play by play of the war closely. But assuming the Ukrainian Su-25s are being deployed over the battlefield and are surviving, then yes, I agree that the A-10’s survivability ought to be quite similar. Only tangentially related to the above … What a lot of armchair folks don’t understand is just how big an undertaking it is to field a new aircraft type into a military service. “We’ll just send them some F-16s / A-10s / [whatevers] to stem the tide in the current battle for [wherever]” sounds easy, but typically has a 2-_year_ ramp-up time. USAF could show up literally tomorrow and be employing F-16s or A-10s effectively in quantity the very next morning. Getting the Ukrainians to the same place is the work of years, not weeks. Which is not an excuse to not make those transfers. But instead is a caution about how big and slow an undertaking it is. And, given the political vicissitudes throughout the West but especially in the USA, is a caution about the duration of sustained commitment required. If you can’t make a decision and be assured of sticking to it for 5+ years, there’s no point in deciding to start down that road. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2024, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/226 "2024-03-20T16:40:50Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > I keep reading about how the A-10 is unsuitable for Ukraine because it is slow and could be easily shot down, but then how is that any different than the Su-25s which Ukraine has been using very ably in this war for two years? At least 49 Su-25s have been shot down on both sides that we know of and can confirm, which represents the single highest total of any combat model in this conflict. They are in fact quite vulnerable in a war against a modern, robust air defense system. There is a reason that the latest Russian offensive push has been with the far more modern Su-34 rather than aging Su-25, even though despite losses they still have plenty of much cheaper Su-25s to use. That said the Su-25 can operate from short, unpaved airfields - the A-10 cannot. The Su-25 is smaller, purportedly more maneuverable and much faster. The Su-25 is more robust, with considerably more titanium armor (on a smaller plane). It also has a much smaller payload and much shorter range than the A-10. But in the current conflict where they have to fly low-level ‘shoot and scoot’ missions to survive rather than loiter over battlefields shooting fish in a barrel (a la the A-10 over Iraq) that doesn’t matter nearly as much. The Su-25 is better suited to this conflict, but still not great for it. ---
**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2024, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/227 "2024-03-20T17:18:32Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > But assuming the Ukrainian Su-25s are being deployed over the battlefield and are surviving, then yes, I agree that the A-10’s survivability ought to be quite similar. Which isn’t a smashing endorsement for deploying Warthogs > **[Some Day, Ukraine Will Run Out Of Su-25 Attack Jets. That’s Why It Wants...](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/02/08/some-day-ukraine-will-run-out-of-su-25-attack-jets-thats-why-it-wants-ex-american-a-10s/?sh=21db22674753)** > > Kyiv's air force is looking ahead to the day when the aging Su-25s begin to run out. It’s not for no reason that some Ukrainian officials have been asking for ex-U.S. Air Force A-10s. > [@](#): > > The journalist counted 30 operational Su-25s, one that was undergoing overhaul at the Zaporizhzhia State Aircraft Repair Plant plus another 12 that were in flyable storage at Mykolaiv-Kulbakino, the 299th’s Brigade home base in southern Ukraine. > … > The Russians over the next two years shot down or blew up on the ground 18 Su-25s, and killed many pilots. So, 43% loss rate over two years. If any meaningful proportion of that was also crew loss, that isn’t sustainable for a small country like Ukraine. A-10s are no good if you can’t pilots into the seats. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2024, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/228 "2024-03-20T21:45:30Z")
Given that we’re not using our A-10s anyway, why not just give them to Ukraine, and tell them “Hey, you guys decide how much use to make of these, and how quickly”? ---
**Author:** ![Precambrianmollusc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/precambrianmollusc/32/63_2.png) [@Precambrianmollusc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Precambrianmollusc)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2024, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/229 "2024-03-21T02:00:34Z")
Available number of competent pilots would become the limiting factor pretty quickly if the loss rate is too high. Also the west isn’t that keen on the optics of high loss rates of equipment . ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2024, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/230 "2024-03-21T02:18:59Z")
A well-equipped air force generally starts with fewer planes than pilots of that type of plane. Each shootdown will result in one fewer plane for sure but maybe you get the pilot back in usable condition. Worst case you lose both plane and pilot one for one. So over time, you expect to lose more planes than pilots and your supply of pilots will relatively increase compared to your supply of airplanes. As well, sometimes airplanes are destroyed on the ground by enemy action which usually doesn’t also cost pilots. Where you lose pilots is illness, age, a combat injury where the wounded pilot brought back the wounded airplane and it could be repaired well enough to keep flying whereas he/she could not. And attacks on the base, e.g. artillery fire landing in the pilots’ barracks area. In wealthy air forces not fighting for survival you also lose pilots as they rotate to non-combat assignments or leave the service. Ideally the newbie pipeline is running at a rate to keep up, and if not typically the service will do something to slow or stop the self-imposed administrative attrition of combat pilots. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2024, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/231 "2024-03-21T18:18:39Z")
Hungary and Slovakia have refused to send arms to Ukraine. Hungary I expected, but Slovakia? Not that I know squat about that country. ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2024, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/232 "2024-03-21T18:22:32Z")
Yes, Slovakia is a problem. This article (gift link) explains some context: > **[Slovakia Presidential Election 2024: What You Need to Know](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/14/world/europe/slovakia-presidential-election-2024.html?unlocked_article_code=1.eU0.y1ZX.IcfHeFHfQfLU&smid=url-share)** > > The Slovak presidency is a largely ceremonial post but can play an important role when the president and prime minister represent opposing political camps. From the article: > The outgoing president, Zuzana Caputova, an outspoken liberal, has used her limited powers and the bully pulpit to resist the agenda of Prime Minister Robert Fico, a pugnacious veteran politician who returned to power in October after years in the political wilderness. He resigned in disgrace as prime minister in 2018 amid a swirl of corruption accusations after the murder of an investigative journalist who had been looking into government graft. > > Mr. Fico, who since he returned to power has often presented the United States, not Russia, as the main threat to European security, wants to reverse Slovakia’s previously robust support for Ukraine. He also seeks to overhaul the judicial systems so as to limit its ability to prosecute corruption. ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2024, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/233 "2024-03-21T18:22:49Z")
Their newly installed PM (returning to power after two previous stints) wants to be another Orban. Here’s some more of his shenanigans. [https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/eu-threatens-action-after-slovakia-dissolves-graft-prosecution-unit/ar-BB1kia4M](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/eu-threatens-action-after-slovakia-dissolves-graft-prosecution-unit/ar-BB1kia4M) Edit: ninja’d! ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2024, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/234 "2024-03-21T18:29:35Z")
Thank you both for the information! ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2024, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/235 "2024-03-22T19:54:58Z")
I’m putting this here instead of the breaking news thread because it’s not directly related to the invasion. > **[Russian Missile Hits Own Trawler Captain Lobanov in Baltic Sea](https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russian-missile-hits-own-trawler-captain-lobanov-in-baltic-sea/)** > > The fishing trawler Captain Lobanov was hit by a missile from the Russian Baltic Fleet The Russian Navy were engaged in firing exercises, and accidentally hit a trawler, killing three. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2024, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/236 "2024-03-22T20:03:20Z")
Perhaps they mistook it for a [Japanese torpedo boat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dogger_Bank_incident)? ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2024, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/237 "2024-03-22T20:06:12Z")
There haas been an attack in the outskirts of Moscow, many dead, many more injured: > **[Live Updates: Gunmen Kill 40 at Moscow Concert Hall, State Media Reports](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/03/22/world/moscow-shooting?unlocked_article_code=1.ek0.WOZH.bnXila95ANCD&smid=url-share)** > > There was no report of who might be responsible for what could be the deadliest attack in Russia in decades. The Russian exile publication Meduza has a news-ticker like information site: > **[Terrorist attack at concert hall outside Moscow Latest updates — Meduza](https://meduza.io/en/live/2024/03/22/terrorist-attack-at-concert-hall-outside-moscow)** > > . The information is confusing, journalists close to the Kreml claim Western powers had **threatened** with this attack for weeks (many Western nations had issued **warnings** that something like that was probable and recomended their own nationals not to join crowds). Some quote Putin as condemning this as blackmail (?) and issuing threats towards and unspecified foreign enemy and aggressor. Always remember that one of the first Putin acts way back in 2000 was to have the FSB blow up several buildings in Russia, blaming the Chechen “terrorists” that he would “pursue even when sitting on the toilet” ([cite](https://www.historyonthenet.com/putins-first-invasion-the-1999-invasion-of-chechnya)). ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2024, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/238 "2024-03-22T20:09:33Z")
No doubt they’ll try to blame it on Ukraine in some way. And Russia seems to seriously think the West attacking concerts is their style. ---
**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2024, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/239 "2024-03-22T20:13:23Z")
That looks like a real fishing trawler, not a “trawler”. > **[Spy ship | Soviet AGI trawlers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spy_ship#Soviet_AGI_trawlers)** > > As the United States Navy began deploying ballistic missile submarines in 1960, the Soviet Union attempted to obtain more information about the capabilities of the UGM-27 Polaris missile and the locations of the submarines capable of launching them. While the Soviet Navy requested more sophisticated ships, they were allocated trawlers (called tra-ou-lery) from the fishing fleet equipped with more sophisticated sensors and communication equipment. Very capable crews were assigned to these trawler... In which case, that sucks for an innocent civilian ship trying to do some business getting whacked by the live fire of (possibly incompetent) Russian warships. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2024, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/240 "2024-03-22T23:37:32Z")
> [@Johnny\_L.A](#): > > [Russian Missile Hits Own Trawler Captain Lobanov in Baltic Sea - Militarnyi](https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russian-missile-hits-own-trawler-captain-lobanov-in-baltic-sea/) > > The Russian Navy were engaged in firing exercises, and accidentally hit a trawler, killing three. So not so different from the USN and TWA800. Except far more Americans were killed than Russians. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=13)