# Russia invades Ukraine -- The regional situation **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [December 30, 2023, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349 "2023-12-30T18:43:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 14
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2024, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/261 "2024-04-04T21:19:05Z")
Getting back to the topic of Ukraine, I used to be confident that if Russia were dumb enough to invade or attack NATO, that the NATO-European nations would easily repel it via superior training and technology. Now, after watching much of NATO-Europe struggle to come up with even just basic artillery shells for Ukraine, I’m getting a different impression - that such a Russian attack on NATO would fail because of Russian **weakness** , not because of European **strength**. The United States, of course, could still do a Desert Storm 2.0. on Russia. But aside from Poland, Sweden and Finland, much of NATO-Europe looks uncomfortably weak. If there were no USA in the picture, they’d still win, but only because Russia sucks even more. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2024, 10:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/262 "2024-04-04T22:51:16Z")
I’m pretty sure that NATO-EU would have air superiority. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2024, 11:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/263 "2024-04-04T23:03:59Z")
Yeah, it’s been true right from the start that what Ukraine really needs is air superiority. Once they got that, it’d be over fairly quickly, instead of this WWI slog. Western nations keep on not providing air superiority, because it’d take too long to train up Ukrainian pilots and flight crews. But if we’d done it right away, those crews would be trained by now. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2024, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/264 "2024-04-04T23:08:15Z")
> [@Johnny\_L.A](#): > > I’m pretty sure that NATO-EU would have air superiority. I’d put it this way: _I’m pretty sure that NATO-EU would have superiority._ > [@Velocity](#): > > But aside from Poland, Sweden and Finland, much of NATO-Europe looks uncomfortably weak I am afraid, germany, france, UK, Italy and Spain will disagree with your assessment ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2024, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/265 "2024-04-04T23:20:44Z")
> [@Al128](#): > > I’d put it this way: > > _I’m pretty sure that NATO-EU would have superiority._ NATO has better equipment and _much_ better training. Plus air superiority. The only issue is the replacement of artillery ammunition, which may be lagging. Still, we haven’t dipped into the smart bomb stocks in Ukraine yet. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2024, 11:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/266 "2024-04-04T23:25:18Z")
I can’t see how a war between Russia and NATO can be fought without Nukes. That leaves nearly total destruction for everyone. Ukraine was the best chance to defeat Russian expansion without it escalating to Nukes. It’s very frustrating to see war supplies dry up because of gridlock in the US government. Where will Russia strike next? Poland seems likely. Then NATO will face a genuine threat of facing Nukes if they declare war. Some of the other former Soviet satellite states might be softer targets. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2024, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/267 "2024-04-04T23:44:36Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > I can’t see how a war between Russia and NATO can be fought without Nukes. NATO wouldn’t _need_ to use nukes. If they/we can drive the Russians back to the border, we can secure the border. Any use of nuclear weapons will be by Russia. Assuming tactical nukes, I see a non-nuclear Armageddon – Precision airstrikes on any and _all_ Russian forces within reach. Russia _must_ know that they will be annihilated if they use strategic nuclear weapons. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2024, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/268 "2024-04-06T14:17:17Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > I can’t see how a war between Russia and NATO can be fought without Nukes. Quite easily. NATO would never use them first and Russia doesn’t want to get nuked in return so they wouldn’t use them. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2024, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/269 "2024-04-06T14:45:13Z")
Russia also wouldn’t want to get conventionally curb-stomped by NATO. If we’re positing a war between Russia and NATO, then we have to assume that Russia is acting irrationally, and once we’re assuming that, it’s folly to try to assume the exact form their irrationality would take. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2024, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/270 "2024-04-06T15:41:04Z")
This. Crazy has an illogical unpredictable “logic” all it’s own. ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2024, 11:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/271 "2024-04-07T11:51:50Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > Quite easily. NATO would never use them first and Russia doesn’t want to get nuked in return so they wouldn’t use them. But Putin seems insane. So I wouldn’t count on a reasonable response from him ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2024, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/272 "2024-04-07T14:30:56Z")
> [@enipla](#): > > But Putin seems insane. So I wouldn’t count on a reasonable response from him The Madman Theory > **[Madman theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory)** > > The madman theory is a political theory commonly associated with the foreign policy of U.S. President Richard Nixon and his administration, who tried to make the leaders of hostile Communist Bloc nations think Nixon was irrational and volatile so that they would avoid provoking the U.S. in fear of an unpredictable response. > Some international relations scholars have been skeptical of madman theory as a strategy for success in bargaining. One study found that madman theory is frequently counterpr... ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2024, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/273 "2024-04-07T15:13:53Z")
> [@Johnny\_L.A](#): > > NATO has better equipment and _much_ better training. Not to mention much higher morale and determination among its troops, who’d be defending their homes rather than invading another country. As Ukraine has shown. ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2024, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/274 "2024-04-07T15:29:12Z")
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#): > > The Madman Theory I’ve always understood that deterrence works on the principle of certainty as to capability but uncertainty as to intention. But I may be wrong, so don’t put me in charge. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2024, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/275 "2024-04-07T22:57:47Z")
I’d also wonder if, given the one-way nature of such as Cessna’s mission, they could design the plane to jettison non-essential things, like landing gear, once the plane has taken off, to further extend range. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2024, 11:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/276 "2024-04-08T11:51:01Z")
Maybe if you were really desperate for that last bit of range. But a one-way flight of a small GA plane that doesn’t have to be safe is already a very long range, and things like that would probably decrease the reliability. ---
**Author:** ![Kelevra](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/97f17d/32.png) [@Kelevra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kelevra)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2024, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/277 "2024-04-08T14:23:24Z")
A couple of bad things for the russian people. The number of men with disabilities is up 30% (likely due to the war). At the same time russia is facing a severe shortage of medical personnel. Of course this is meaningless to Putin and his oligarchs. > > ---
**Author:** ![Toxylon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f05b48/32.png) [@Toxylon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Toxylon)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2024, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/278 "2024-04-08T15:09:22Z")
Oh, the choices for the injured Russian infantryman: be left to die on the battlefield like a haphazardly squished bug, or be carted away to be treated by someone who just told some people that they know combat medicine / surgery. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2024, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/279 "2024-04-08T15:52:13Z")
> [@Toxylon](#): > > or be carted away to be treated by someone who just told some people that they know combat medicine / surgery. ‘I am not actually a doctor, but last night I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express.’ ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2024, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/280 "2024-04-08T16:11:45Z")
for what it’s worth…the lack of doctors isn’t just a Russian problem. America is in a similar situation. For different reasons, of course. > [@](#): > > “the American Association of Medical Colleges projects a national physician shortfall of at least 37,000—and possibly well over 100,000— over the next decade” > **[AMA president sounds alarm on national physician shortage](https://www.ama-assn.org/press-center/press-releases/ama-president-sounds-alarm-national-physician-shortage)** > > At National Press Club, Dr. Ehrenfeld outlined strains on physicians—enormous administrative burdens, burnout, attacks on science, broken Medicare payment system. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=13) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=15)