# Russia invades Ukraine -- The regional situation **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [December 30, 2023, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349 "2023-12-30T18:43:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 15
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2024, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/281 "2024-04-08T18:18:23Z")
Have you ever heard about the city of Orsk? It is close to the Kazachstan border, where many fled to avoid conscription. It is under water now, heavy floods, dams broken. > **[Cataclysmic Russian flood triggers city evacuations after dam burst](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-flooding-orsk-orenburg-video-dam-burst-1887776)** > > "The scale of damage caused by the disaster is significant," Denis Pasler, the governor for Russia's southern Orenburg region, said in a statement. It is a bad sign when the Kazach autorities manage a disaster better than your autorities, but that is what is happening now there. ([Cite in German](https://www.nzz.ch/panorama/wir-koennen-uns-nur-auf-uns-selbst-verlassen-ein-dammbruch-am-ural-ueberschwemmt-tausende-von-haeusern-ld.1825407)): > Last week, Wasili Kosupiza, the mayor of the city, was still relaxed when inspecting the dam. “There is no threat at the moment. People are not afraid that they could be flooded. This year’s flood is the first test of the dam’s strength” I don’t know whether the mayor wore a suit stating “I really don’t care, do you?” but that is the spirit. Corruption, incompetence, callousness, indiference. Ukraine still has a chance. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2024, 4:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/282 "2024-04-10T04:03:15Z")
Only somewhat related, but [Serbia and France have announced a potential deal for France to sell Rafale warplanes to Serbia](https://apnews.com/article/france-serbia-rafale-jets-macron-vucic-f9d6fd18ece248b10b3db1264997c837), which would be a huge break in traditional Serbian politics - the Serbs were long a Russian clientele and bought Russian arms. This could mark a big move by Serbia away from being a Russian ally and shifting towards the West instead, further isolating Russia just that little bit more. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2024, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/283 "2024-04-10T04:12:26Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Only somewhat related That’s what this thread is for. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2024, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/284 "2024-04-10T19:20:41Z")
I never expected the US to fail in such a dramatic way. We’ve supported so many sketchy regimes only because it served our National interest. Here we have a fairly responsible government with a trained army that just needs the ammo and rockets to defend themselves. Allowing Russia to take over Ukraine will be a massive geopolitical mistake. Russia will gain a lot of valuable resoures and become much stronger. It will shift power in the Baltics. We’ll see some of the smaller countries aligning with Russia. It’s the only way they can ensure their safety. > **[‘Now or never’: Congressmen say US must send Ukraine aid](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68727866)** > > A Republican and a Democrat spoke with the BBC News after meeting with President Zelensky. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2024, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/285 "2024-04-11T23:41:27Z")
At this moment, even if Congress suddenly approved the $60 billion aid bill tomorrow and Biden signed it at once, how fast is stuff even going to get to Ukraine? I would suggest that the US stockpile up weapons and ammo on the Polish-Ukrainian border in advance right now, that way, once the bill passes and is signed, the stuff can move IMMEDIATELY into Ukraine. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2024, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/286 "2024-04-12T14:30:34Z")
Assuming Poland agrees and you can quickly get the stuff to where it needs to gothat seems like a good idea. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2024, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/287 "2024-04-14T23:54:56Z")
The OP says: > [@](#): > > But wars do not happen in isolation. There are issues of strategy, strategic, tactical, and diplomatic. Wars affect countries other than the belligerents. There are socio-economic impacts around the world. In that light, the contrast between Israel’s ability to fend off Iran, and Ukraine’s inability to defend itself from Russian air attacks, is glaring: [A Tale of Two Raids: Ukraine Has No Nuclear Weapons So Must Suffer](https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-76-a-tale-of-two-raids) > [@](#): > > One of the biggest differences last night is that Israel, which has far more capable air defenses than Ukraine, was supported by the USA, UK, and France in its efforts to shoot down Iranian systems. This is extraordinary and worthy of note. Why are they doing this? The US has been far more critical of Israel than Ukraine. The Ukrainians need the help more than Israel—and yet the US helps Israel more than Ukraine. > > The answer seems to be that the US is desperate to in its minds limit the chance of Israeli escalation and is not really that bothered about Ukraine having the ability to escalate. Well, the big difference in escalation concerns is that Israel is a nuclear power and Ukraine is not. > > So what the US is seeming to say is that if you are a nuclear power—we will help you to try and make sure you are safe. However, if you are not a nuclear power—tough luck and go deal with it. Its the flip side of the coin about how the US is dealing with Russia. In this case—if our friends (Ukraine) want to fight a nuclear power, the US will restrain them as much as possible by limiting what they get and what they can do. > > It might sound clever—but in a meta-sense its about as extreme a pro-escalation policy as the US could devise. P.S. U.S. foreign aid in 2022, and then again in 2023, was roughly four times higher to Ukraine than Israel. But the quality of the weapons supplied to Ukraine was lower. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2024, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/288 "2024-04-15T00:11:29Z")
This is something I’ve been arguing for a long time - that the way the United States and the international community tackle the issue of “nuclear proliferation” is absolutely ass-backwards. Those who proliferate, are rewarded, and those who go nuke-free, are punished. And then the international community scratches its head as to why more and more nations want nukes. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2024, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/289 "2024-04-15T01:50:33Z")
I don’t think it’s a question of Ukraine’s status versus Israel’s: I think it’s a question of Russia’s versus Iran’s. Russia has nukes, and so we don’t want to escalate versus them, while Iran (probably) doesn’t yet, and even if they do, they (probably) can’t deliver them intercontinentally, so we’re not as worried about escalating versus them. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2024, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/290 "2024-04-15T14:54:20Z")
Exactly. IMO @Chronos has it forwards and the blog cited by @PhillyGuy has it completely backwards. Plus of course, the longstanding supportive relationship between Israel and the USA as contrasted with the last 10 years of a closely supportive relationship by not quite half the US electorate and close to half of elected officials with … Russia. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2024, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/291 "2024-04-16T00:42:50Z")
The US put up an impressive display in helping Israel shoot down drones and missiles from Iran. Ukraine must be feeling left out as their vital energy plants are being pulverized night after night. I know Israel has the Iron Dome, but apparently the US did some fine shooting at everything Iran sent. It is _Russia_ and no one wants to start WWIII. I feel it’s time to donate more Patriots to Ukraine. At least protect their energy infrastructure. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2024, 1:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/292 "2024-04-16T01:03:31Z")
fwiw - and its just a drop of water into the sea - the germans sent another patriot battery over to the UKR … ---
**Author:** ![Kelevra](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/97f17d/32.png) [@Kelevra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kelevra)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2024, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/293 "2024-04-16T13:41:30Z")
It seems that they need missiles for the battery’s they have as much as they need new systems. In an interview Zelensky said a power plant was hit due to lack of missiles. > ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2024, 2:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/294 "2024-04-16T14:13:15Z")
Another article on Russia crippling Ukraine’s energy grid. This could break support in Ukraine for the war. I know how miserable it is to lose power for even a week. Sitting in the dark with no heat is very depressing. At least I could install a whole house generator. That’s not practical in Ukraine. Good article detailing the situation in Ukraine. > **[Ukraine's power plants at the mercy of Russian missiles](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68813529)** > > Russia now frequently targets Ukraine's energy infrastructure in an attempt to cripple the country. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2024, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/295 "2024-04-16T16:16:57Z")
Back on topic with a regional focus. > **[‘An energy war is being waged’: former oil boss warns of price rises after...](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/14/an-energy-war-is-being-waged-former-oil-boss-warns-of-price-rises-after-ukraine-infrastructure-attacks)** > > Andriy Kobolyev calls for more weapons after Russia destroys one of Ukraine’s largest power plants > [@](#): > > A dramatic rise in European energy prices is inevitable if the Russian destruction of Ukrainian energy infrastructure continues unabated, the former chief executive of Ukraine’s state-owned oil company has warned. > > Andriy Kobolyev, a former head of Naftogaz, said in an interview with the Guardian: “Russia is trying to wage a global energy war and Ukraine is part of that war and if the markets perceive that [Russia](https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia) is winning that war the consequences will be very serious. You will see a spike in prices all round the globe” > > He said there would be no point holding any more Ukraine reconstruction conferences until Ukraine is supplied with weapons to save its energy infrastructure from the wave of attacks by Iranian-made Shahed drones and guided bombs. “There will be no Ukrainian economy to reconstruct,” he said. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2024, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/296 "2024-04-17T22:13:08Z")
The White House asked Ukraine not to target Russia’s oil infrastructure because it does not want rising oil prices, especially in an election year. However the US has largely stopped contributing to the Ukrainian defensive effort so it has less influence on Ukraine’s strategy. And beyond that on what a future Ukraine might choose to look like (if it gets to make a choice). ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2024, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/297 "2024-04-17T22:24:55Z")
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#): > > The White House asked Ukraine not to target Russia’s oil infrastructure because it does not want rising oil prices, especially in an election year. Did they actually, or is that just speculation? Because a skilled politician could work that to their advantage. “Rising oil prices are due to the war in Ukraine, a war started by Trump’s unrequited love interest Putin.” ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2024, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/298 "2024-04-17T22:31:09Z")
It’s not new news, this is from late March: [https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-has-urged-ukraine-halt-strikes-russian-energy-infrastructure-ft-reports-2024-03-22/](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-has-urged-ukraine-halt-strikes-russian-energy-infrastructure-ft-reports-2024-03-22/) A politician would need an immense amount of skill to counter the negative sentiment that occurs when prices are actually rising and people have less money in their pocket. You could argue that by targeting Russian oil refineries, Ukraine is actually putting Biden under pressure to get a grip on the situation somehow, or to find a way to send military aid without using Congress (I understand there are ways). ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2024, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/299 "2024-04-18T00:31:38Z")
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#): > > Ukraine is actually putting Biden under pressure to get a grip on the situation somehow, or to find a way to send military aid without using Congress (I understand there are ways). For a while, the U.S. was finding ways. But as far as I can gather, those ways are basically exhausted. From what I am read behind Claire Berlinski’s foreign policy paywall, it has been 481 days since the U.S. congress authorized funds, and, as a result, Ukraine is in grave danger (besides having already gotten the message that, if they survive, [they need to rectify the mistake of giving up nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum)). Directly relevant to the thread: Surely other neighboring nations, like Poland and the Baltic states, will start thinking the same. If you have evidence that Biden can fix this unilaterally, please advise. But as of now, I think all the blame is on the unwillingness of most U.S. House of Representatives Republicans to stand up to the pro-Russian-expansionism members of their caucus. As for being pro-Putin, you can’t get more pro-Putin and expansionist than this, in both the sentiment and the concrete action, and it is coming from someone who has strangely become one of the most powerful figures in the United States: > ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2024, 8:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/300 "2024-04-18T08:57:50Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > For a while, the U.S. was finding ways. But as far as I can gather, those ways are basically exhausted. I think you are right. Biden it seems cannot do any more military drawdowns; the other thing I saw was the White House giving incentives to US defence contractors to partner with Ukraine. But that is probably very thin gruel indeed. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=14) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=16)