# Russia invades Ukraine -- The regional situation **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [December 30, 2023, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349 "2023-12-30T18:43:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2024, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/21 "2024-01-01T03:30:19Z")
These things were going, what, Mach 2 or 3? They’re absolutely, definitely not airliners. All they can be, at that speed, is missiles or military planes, and either one is a clear act of aggression. ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2024, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/22 "2024-01-01T03:49:36Z")
Well, I’m not sure of the speed, but they were apparently going slow enough to enter Polish airspace and turn around. Even it if was a fighter, I doubt Poland really wants to shoot down anything manned. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2024, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/23 "2024-01-01T03:51:07Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > Was air defense caught off guard and couldn’t respond? It’s a lot easier to detect an intrusion than to intercept it. An interceptor would have to be in the exact right place to intercept within 3 minutes. And it may not have gone within the range of a missile battery. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2024, 7:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/24 "2024-01-01T07:36:20Z")
> [@Al128](#): > > Why not respond… you have no idea where this missile will explode Or maybe the opposite is true? If you have detected it and followed its trajectory, I think you do have a good idea about where it will explode. And if it is headed towards a destination outside of your country, why respond? You could make the situation much worse for youself. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2024, 1:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/25 "2024-01-01T13:27:04Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > If you have detected it and followed its trajectory, I think you do have a good idea about where it will explode. “Trajectory” isn’t really applicable to something that can maneuver, like a missile. It could, at any given moment, change course, and hit a ground target within seconds. Or detonate at its current altitude, if it’s carrying a nuke. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2024, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/26 "2024-01-01T13:54:56Z")
> [@scabpicker](#): > > I doubt Poland really wants to shoot down anything manned. why do you claim that … this would be every “avg. polititians” wet dream … showing off your resolve and hard hitting armed forces, while downing a RU jet. throw in a _don’t treat on me… / play stupid games win stupid prices_… rhetoric and you are golden. > [@chappachula](#): > > Or maybe the opposite is true? > If you have detected it and followed its trajectory, I think you do have a good idea about where it will explode. > And if it is headed towards a destination outside of your country, why respond? You could make the situation much worse for youself. whats the upside for poland of RU using Polish territory for missile attacks and your AA failing to see/engage/shot down foreign missiles? Isn’t that egg-on-face for the Polish? doesn’t exacly inspire confidence into the AA ability of your country, if your an avg. guy in Warsaw, does it? ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2024, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/27 "2024-01-01T14:35:22Z")
> [@Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2)](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/6643): > > The ground is static because the air is static, and the air is static because Russia’s air defense is not yet exhausted. When it is, Ukraine will be able to start flying a lot of planes, which will very quickly turn things around on the ground. We’ve seen what happens when NATO-quality forces with air superiority meet heavily-entrenched ground forces. > > And Ukraine doesn’t have much to fill the power vacuum in the sea, but they don’t need much. All they need is something, anything, that can make it out to that bridge and finish it off. It could be a handful of explosive drone boats. It could be a few Special Forces guys in a raft. It could be anything. And once they do that, the battle for the sea becomes irrelevant because it will have been completely and decisively won by Ukraine. I think you fail to see the scale of the front … that thing is hugely extensive … whatever AF you are, it will be spread (too) thinly. In the era of Manpads et al - you wont exhaust air defense … and there are 1000s of those in the theater … (which makes it a scenario way different from the Irak/Kuwait war, where US-planes could patrol at leisure. sorry, but I don’t share your optimism … esp. in light of the less-than-stellar advances of the Ukr to reach the coast (and cut off supply chains) … they hardly advanced (in one place) 10 km in the first month and remain bogged down there (and in defense now) for 5 months, while RU keeps mining the country to the hilt (and the mines were probably the game-changers in this war) ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2024, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/28 "2024-01-01T14:57:25Z")
> [@Al128](#): > > why do you claim that … this would be every “avg. polititians” wet dream … showing off your resolve and hard hitting armed forces, while downing a RU jet. Because countries generally try to not kill each other’s pilots willy-nilly when it doesn’t really benefit them. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2024, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/29 "2024-01-01T15:16:31Z")
except poland has already sent trainloads after trainloads of weaponry to UKR for THAT very reason … ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2024, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/30 "2024-01-01T15:37:21Z")
It’s still less of a complex situation than Poland getting involved in the shooting themselves. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2024, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/31 "2024-01-01T16:00:39Z")
I was considering Rules of Engagement. Poland should have something in place. They live in a hot spot right now. Russian and Ukrainian missiles (or pieces of them) probably enter Polish territory more often than is reported Staying neutral while stuff is flying isn’t easy. But they got traumatized badly in both World Wars. Then ruled by the Soviet Union for decades. Staying neutral is very important. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2024, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/32 "2024-01-01T16:05:13Z")
Staying neutral does not mean letting other countries use your airspace without permission. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2024, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/33 "2024-01-01T16:07:07Z")
Poland isn’t neutral – they’ve been very clear both rhetorically and with supplies that they support Ukraine. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2024, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/34 "2024-01-01T16:30:33Z")
> [@Al128](#): > > doesn’t exacly inspire confidence into the AA ability of your country, if your an avg. guy in Warsaw, does it? No NATO country has the capability to automatically shoot down any random supersonic missile that transits the very edge of their air space for three minutes. They might be able to do it if they got lucky, but only if they got lucky. The US absolutely couldn’t do it automatically - not enough air defense/sq. mile. Poland has neither a massive air force nor a large network of long-range air defense missiles (most are short or medium range). Worse even if they could get lucky enough to engage, by the time they did engage that missile or aircraft is liable to not be in Polish air space anymore and you have to deal with the diplomatic fallout of downing it over Russia/Belarus/Ukraine, with much loud screaming from Russia about Polish aggression and interference. Short of indisputably taking it out over Poland, just bitching about it and documenting is probably the sanest response. > [@Al128](#): > > In the era of Manpads et al - you wont exhaust air defense Manpads are pretty much useless against higher-flying aircraft. You try to create an air space so hostile that it forces planes to fly low to survive, but they then become more vulnerable to manpads. That’s more or less where things are now. But I do tend to agree that expecting Russia to run out of air defense missiles/interceptors anytime soon or even faster than Ukraine is wishful thinking. Not only does Russia have a lot more of them, they’re being pressured less than Ukraine because Ukraine hasn’t had enough assets to saturate them. The idea of building up Ukraine’s air force, as I understand it, is not to challenge Russia generally in the sky. Rather it is to punch a hole in air defenses locally in the Zaporizhzhia oblast and establish just enough temporary air superiority to bomb open a different hole in Russian ground defensive works, enough for armor to be able to deeply penetrate. More standard NATO tactics of the sort that the US was essentially pushing on Ukraine earlier in the year (only Ukraine didn’t have the capability a NATO force would have, since they didn’t have the air support NATO would use). Would it work? Eh, maybe. But since abandoning Ukraine is unpalatable to sane/moral people it’s worth a try. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2024, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/35 "2024-01-01T17:46:31Z")
@Tamerlane nailed it. The issue with this Russian missile through Polish airspace event is simply that 3 minutes is not enough time to deal with the problem before it’s over. During the hot peace Poland is currently experiencing, they are NOT neutral. Neither are they active combatants. They are in the intermediate stage of watchful waiting. Where there is more wisdom in caution than in haste. If they happened to have a missile battery all set up and looking right at this situation, _and_ they had ROE that enabled an immediate firing decision by that battery without HQ involvement, _and_ they had fired timely, _and_ they had a successful intercept, well … they’d have bought themselves the wreckage of both their own ordnance and the enemy’s ordnance landing on their territory endangering the innocent Polish citizens on the ground. By watching the missile enter and, as they expected, promptly leave Polish territory they got no damage, and a chance to (maybe) practice tracking and simulating firing on the thing. Far smarter to do that than shoot. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2024, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/36 "2024-01-02T22:23:32Z")
> **[Russia hammers Ukraine's 2 largest cities with hypersonic missiles](https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-hammers-ukraines-2-largest-121622392.html)** > > "Russia will answer for every life taken away," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. > Neighboring Poland said it was activating two pairs of F-16 fighter jets and an allied tanker in response to Russia’s attack on Ukraine, “in order to ensure the security of Polish airspace.” ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2024, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/37 "2024-01-08T15:43:20Z")
[Possible Russian drones surveilling Bundeswehr base in Germany](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/persistent-drone-surveillance-over-bundeswehr-grounds-linked-to-russia-a-potential-espionage-threat/ar-AA1mAToC) > Drones are routinely observed flying over the Klietz military training ground where the Bundeswehr is training Ukrainians on Leopard 1 tanks. At other bases, several drones have been seen taking to the air simultaneously - said Marcus Faber, a member of the Bundestag and the defense committee, in a discussion with a German newspaper. > > He further insinuated that the operation is organized and points towards Russia." ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2024, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/38 "2024-01-08T17:11:30Z")
Sounds like time for the _Bundeswehr_ to engage in a little counter-drone training of their own. Knock 'em down and keep 'em down. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2024, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/39 "2024-01-08T17:39:18Z")
I’m guessing they’re consumer-grade drones, though they certainly could be ‘pro-sumer’ or the larger ones used in the documentaries we watch. Probably not cost-effective to shoot them down, but I could imagine a _Bundesdrohnenkorps_ engaging in dogfights with the intruder drones, trying to ram them and knock them out of the sky. Or use [trained eagles](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b8kZupqPbJs). Per the article: > Berlin’s Ministry of Defense has not officially confirmed if the drones spotted over the training grounds were intercepted or shot down. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2024, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/40 "2024-01-08T18:04:10Z")
Rifle fire or ground-based jammers can do a number on consumer / prosumer stuff at tolerable cost per drone destroyed. The usual problem with using this approach in peacetime is legal, or concerns for collateral damage; all those bullets land someplace. If this drone observation stuff is occurring within training ground land controlled by the government, those restraining concerns largely drop away. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=3)