# Russia invades Ukraine -- The regional situation **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [December 30, 2023, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349 "2023-12-30T18:43:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 22
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 1:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/421 "2024-08-07T13:52:32Z")
One thing there seems to have been a lack of is a heavy-enough Western cyberattack campaign against Russia. Cyberweapons seem to be pretty much acknowledged as a gray-area form of warfare, where it doesn’t rise to the same level of casus belli as actual explosives hitting a target, yet can still inflict considerable damage. A strong-enough Western campaign of cyberwarfare against Russian governmental buildings, energy facilities, websites, airports, ports, media stations, factories, etc. could have significant effect while also keeping things below the level of formal escalation. The West also needs to think long and hard of some good ways to worsen Russia’s demographic crisis and brain drain. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/422 "2024-08-07T13:54:29Z")
would be interesting to know if that terrain has any tactical specifics (e.g. higher ground overseeng turf) that would make it worthwhile holding on to and making it very expensive for RU to get back … or if it is just a “nuisance attack” to bind RU defenses maybe … they are planning for territory swaps for a ceasefire 😉 ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/423 "2024-08-07T14:44:26Z")
I’m surprised there haven’t been more Ukrainian raids on Russian Airfields that are near the border. I know Russian partisans have attacked planes on runways. But a full scale raid by Ukrainian special forces could disable a airbase for quite awhile. Take out the control tower and command center. I don’t know if Ukraine’s special forces are still effective. They may have been killed already in the war. ---
**Author:** ![CoolHandCox](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/coolhandcox/32/16233_2.png) [@CoolHandCox](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CoolHandCox)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/424 "2024-08-08T18:36:36Z")
This attack seems pretty daring. I see a huge downfall potential if Ukraine cannot hold it/doesn’t plan to hold Russian territory. For Russian propaganda purposes, I’d imagine it’s much easier to recruit and get more internal support if they can show the enemy inside Russia harming Russian civilians (_I don’t mean intentionally, and you have to ignore the hypocrisy - but that’s everyone in every war_). Much harder to be indifferent to that and Russian news will definitely let them see that. But if Ukraine can hold some territory. Then wow. Pretty damn good way to turn the tables. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/425 "2024-08-08T18:43:52Z")
I agree, as it seems to be “cheap and easy” territory for the UKR to take, as opposed to the “hugely expensive” territory RU is taking inch-by-inch from UKR at the expense of loss of 100s of armored vehicles and 10s of 1000s of death soldiers. So with a little luck, this month might be a net-negative for RU in terms of territory wins. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/426 "2024-08-08T18:50:37Z")
I think I heard that Ukraine was shipping gas from the captured facility to Europe. If so, the message is to the European community: “Ukraine holding territory means you get gas. Russia holding territory means that you get nothing.” ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/427 "2024-08-08T20:36:23Z")
The question I have is _who_ is Europe paying for this gas? Are western countries in the habit of buying the plunders of war? ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/428 "2024-08-08T21:12:39Z")
Eeehhh… [yes. We are](https://www.dw.com/en/war-in-ukraine-why-is-the-eu-still-buying-russian-gas/a-68925869). And Ukraine gets transit fees from Russia for the Russian gas that comes through their territory to Europe (see map in the link with the pipelines that go through Ukraine: they are still operational, and both war parties earn money from that trade!). Russia pays Ukraine transit fees, Europe pays Russia for the gas. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/429 "2024-08-08T21:17:43Z")
> [@Pardel-Lux](#): > > Eeehhh… [yes. We are](https://www.dw.com/en/war-in-ukraine-why-is-the-eu-still-buying-russian-gas/a-68925869) Are you saying Europe is paying Ukraine for the captured gas? I’m not talking about transit fees. ---
**Author:** ![Mops](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mops/32/16494_2.png) [@Mops](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mops)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/430 "2024-08-08T21:20:23Z")
…and Ukraine still consumes natural gas that _physically_ comes from Russia but since November 2015 _legally_ is bought from European companies, i.e. it goes through the latter’s books so Ukraine can proudly say they do not buy gas from Russia. The Russian gas molecules are not bothered by that legal fiction. That’s going to end at the end of 2024 because the EU has invested in enabling pipelines to be reversible. ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/431 "2024-08-08T21:37:28Z")
I don’t know what is happening right now to the gas the Ukrainians have “conquered” with the offensive that has given them “control” of a pump node in Russian territory: the bills will be settled later and disputes will make lawyers rich. But until last week Russia still sold gas to Europe, it passed in transit through Ukraine, and Europe paid Russia for the gas, and Russia paid Ukraine for the transit. Similar story: The USA bough oil from Venezuela, although Venezuela was an enemy state. [Cite](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/26/biden-chevron-permit-venezuelan-oil-sales-00070836). From the article: > But a senior administration official said the easing of sanctions was not driven by the oil market pressures and was instead a response the Venezuelan regime’s decision this week to participate in the negotiations with opposition groups. Those talks, which were originally launched in Mexico City in September 2021, are expected to focus on humanitarian programs and setting future elections. FTR: This is bullshit, i.e. a lie. And if you search for US buying oil from Venezuela you will find many more articles with mind boggling details. Money talks! Similar story (2): Can’t find a quick cite, but England paid Germany interests during WWI for state issued bonds, and the Soviet Union paid the heirs of the composer of [The Internationale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Internationale#Anthem_of_the_Soviet_Union) royalties for their National Anthem. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/432 "2024-08-08T22:11:34Z")
Since when has anyone, anywhere in the world, cared who they buy fossil fuels from? ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/433 "2024-08-08T22:20:40Z")
Reports are that Germany has approved Ukraine to use Leopard 2 tanks on Russian soil. The optics of German tanks going into Kursk/Russia again are delicious. ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/434 "2024-08-08T22:21:43Z")
May I recommend a book? > **[The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power: The Epic Quest For Oil,...](https://www.amazon.de/Prize-Epic-Quest-Money-Power/dp/1847376460)** > > The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power: The Epic Quest For Oil, Money And Power | Yergin, Daniel | ISBN: 9781847376466 | Kostenloser Versand für alle Bücher mit Versand und Verkauf duch Amazon. To answer your question: nobody ever has, but they have cared a lot about controling the sellers. It did not always work out the way the buyers intended. > [@Velocity](#): > > The optics of German tanks going into Kursk/Russia again are delicious. Ufff! Delicious is not the word I would have chosen. ---
**Author:** ![CoolHandCox](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/coolhandcox/32/16233_2.png) [@CoolHandCox](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CoolHandCox)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/435 "2024-08-08T22:23:24Z")
Just re: the book. It’s wonderful. For those who haven’t read it, I think it traces oil’s history (as a fossil fuel) from the 1800’s through the 1990’s (?). It’s amazing how closely it tracks the importance of actual world history. I consider it the oil fossil fuel bible. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/436 "2024-08-08T22:44:52Z")
the best stab at a current map in that area …Rybar = RU mil Blogger [https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/1enay1a/russian\_military\_sources\_reported\_that\_the/](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/1enay1a/russian_military_sources_reported_that_the/) ---
**Author:** ![CoolHandCox](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/coolhandcox/32/16233_2.png) [@CoolHandCox](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CoolHandCox)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/437 "2024-08-08T22:55:48Z")
Thanks for posting that. So, correct me if I’m wrong, but in theory at least, Russia should have certain troops it can use _only_ in self-defense (inside Russia) but cannot use to invade Ukraine (deploy outside Russia). Is there any sign that this is true and/or they are in any way effective or were even mobilized near the border? ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/438 "2024-08-08T23:14:18Z")
Does Ukraine have large tanks to store natural gas? It’s something to consider while they control the pipeline. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2024, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/439 "2024-08-09T01:25:56Z")
from what I read (the fog of war is thick here) … UKR penetrated 2 lines of defense of RU (looks like they cought them sleeping) and there seems to be little to no military resistance where they are now (already behind the RU defense lines). It seems they are more supply-chain limited in advancing than being stopped by anybody … and from quite a few comments on X and reddit there seem to be fresh elite-troops involved and there is backup and reserves at hand (take all with plenty of salt) … but that seems to be the current situation … I have the feeling they did try something “new” and had a huge windfall-profit falling into their lap and scramble now to see what they can do and how to leverage it in the best way. Analogy: The former Putin’s Chef attack on Moscow last year … where they advanced 700 or so km without anybody there to stop them. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2024, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/440 "2024-08-09T18:00:00Z")
I think this is a first for ISW. Usually they just don’t comment on compromising information. Whatever is planned seems well thought out. It totally caught the Russians by surprise. Link [Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 8, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-8-2024) > [@](#): > > **Ukrainian cross-border mechanized offensive operations into Kursk Oblast that began on August 6 are continuing as part of a Ukrainian operational effort within Russian territory. ISW will not offer assessments about the intent of this Ukrainian operation in order to avoid compromising Ukrainian operational security.** ISW will not make forecasts about what Ukrainian forces might or might not do or where or when they might do it. ISW will continue to map, track, and evaluate operations as they unfold but will not offer insight into Ukrainian planning, tactics, or techniques. ISW is not prepared to map control of terrain within Russia at this time and will instead map observed events associated with the Ukrainian incursion into Russian territory as well the maximalist extent of claims and unverified reports about Ukrainian advances. Maximalist claims and unverified reports about Ukrainian advances within Russia do not represent territory that ISW assesses that Ukrainian forces have seized or control. **Inferring predictions about Ukrainian operations from ISW maps and assessments that do not explicitly offer such predictions is inappropriate and not in accord with their intended use.** [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=21) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=23)