# Russia invades Ukraine -- The regional situation **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [December 30, 2023, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349 "2023-12-30T18:43:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 35
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 12:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/682 "2024-11-08T12:28:19Z")
> [@On another topic](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/1010082/44): > > I don’t think even under Trump there is any way that Russia gets all of Ukraine they will be told to annex the Western half. What’s left over is Ukraine, under the protection of NATO but no Nukes for them. Everyone saves face somewhat. Russia will not be allowed to expand into Estonia or Poland or anything else. Trump would be hated in Ukraine and in some eastern European countries for that but he would be lauded everywhere else and it would be a massive win for him domestically. I just can’t see Ukraine agreeing to give up any of its territory unless they think they are in a losing position already. ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 1:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/683 "2024-11-08T13:15:08Z")
I think you get NATO wrong when you think they are in the business of giving nukes to anyone. Among the NATO members only the USA, the UK and France have nuclear weapons (or nukes, if you prefer). Ukraine will never get nuclear weapons from any other country, but if they were admitted in NATO they would get the protection that Article 5 provides to all members of the alliance. That would include the promise by the three NATO nuclear powers that they would use neclear weapons to defend Ukraine if they consider it the adequate response in a given situation. This is vague on purpose, and because it cannot be any other way. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 1:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/684 "2024-11-08T13:21:14Z")
Manpower is the bottleneck, not EW systems. And despite what you might infer from NK soldiers’ presence, Russia has many more. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/685 "2024-11-08T13:37:13Z")
> [@On another topic](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/1010082/43): > > I think realistically Trump tells Russia to carve off a significant piece of Ukraine that is annexed by Russia. Ukraine is allowed to join NATO but not receive nuclear weapons, Buffer state is set up, end of story. Except for who is doing the telling and who is doing the listening you might be right. But I think it’s more like this: Putin tells trump to leave NATO and abandon Ukraine. trump does so, _de facto_ if not _de jure_. Putin tells NATO: “I get all of Ukraine or I start in on destabilizing all of you.” US-less NATO dithers then accedes. Ukraine is cut off from all significant Western aid and is decisively defeated and overrun over the next year-ish. Or surrenders which amounts to the same thing. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 1:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/686 "2024-11-08T13:40:34Z")
Can’t see the US pulling out of NATO. Even if Trump would like to. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 1:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/687 "2024-11-08T13:45:39Z")
With a pliant MAGA congress anything is possible. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2024, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/688 "2024-11-09T02:38:56Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Putin tells NATO: “I get all of Ukraine or I start in on destabilizing all of you.” US-less NATO dithers then accedes. Which is immediately followed by Putin starting in on destabilizing all of them. There might be a few NATO countries that idiotic, but certainly not all of them. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2024, 12:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/689 "2024-11-09T12:10:51Z")
ISW has analysis of Putin’s recent statements since the US election. He seems to expect sanctions to be removed before any serious talks begin. The article is quite interesting. It also goes into the current situation and problems inside Russia. Link [Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 8, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-8-2024) > [@](#): > > **Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be assuming that US President-elect Donald Trump will defer to the Kremlin’s interests and preferences without the Kremlin offering any concessions or benefits in return.** Putin stated during his November 7 Valdai Club address that he is open to discussions meant to “restore” US-Russia relations but that the United States must initiate these negotiations, and implied that Russia will only consider a reset in US-Russia relations if the United States drops sanctions against Russia and ceases supporting Ukraine – terms that exclusively benefit Russia and offer no benefit to the United States.[1] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov noted on November 8 that Putin’s statement about negotiating with the United States does not mean that Russia’s military goals in Ukraine have changed and that instead, Russia’s goals remain the same.[2] Putin may be attempting to posture himself as reaching out to Trump, but Putin is signaling to his domestic audiences that the Kremlin is unwilling to concede any aspect of its maximalist objectives in Ukraine or the wider global arena\*\*.\*\* ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2024, 12:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/690 "2024-11-09T12:33:31Z")
Never Mind, I’ll create a new thread. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2024, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/691 "2024-11-18T03:22:02Z")
Posted in the news thread. Any discussion was immediately shut down. This is a pivotal decision. Ukraine finally has the ability to strike back. The target list should be ready whenever Ukraine picks the right time to strike. Hopefully other countries like Britain and France will give permission. Of course this won’t immediately change anything. Except Russia will lose more munitions storage and command centers. Russia has excellent air defense and many missiles will be shot down. > **[Biden lifts ban on Ukraine using US weapons to strike deeper into Russia](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/17/biden-has-lifted-ban-on-ukraine-using-us-weapons-to-strike-deeper-into-russia-reports)** > > Officials have suggested permission for wider use could be response to North Koreans joining war on Putin’s side ---
**Author:** ![Machine\_Elf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/82dd89/32.png) [@Machine\_Elf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Machine_Elf)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2024, 11:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/692 "2024-11-18T11:50:40Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > Russia has excellent air defense and many missiles will be shot down. They might get a couple, but I wouldn’t say “many”. The ATACMS isn’t a slow cruise missile or drone puttering along at a couple hundred MPH, it’s a ballistic missile that comes in at Mach 3, making it pretty hard to hit. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2024, 1:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/693 "2024-11-18T13:43:21Z")
Agreed. They’re not going to be shooting down any, much less many, ATACMS. ---
**Author:** ![Sauron](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ce7236/32.png) [@Sauron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sauron)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2024, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/694 "2024-11-18T13:46:45Z")
Oh, they’ll shoot down all the ATACMs. They always have. The problem for Russia is, all that pesky debris keeps falling onto the target, setting it on fire and blowing it up anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2024, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/695 "2024-11-18T14:58:14Z")
Another unfortunate accident happens to a critic of Putin in Russia. It’s just a mystery, I tell you! I guess we’ll never know the truth. > **[Ballet star Vladimir Shklyarov who criticised Putin’s Ukraine invasion dies...](https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/vladimir-shklyarov-death-st-petersburg-ballet-star-fall/)** > > An acclaimed Russian ballet dancer has died in a fall from his residential block in St Petersburg. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2024, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/696 "2024-11-18T15:42:35Z")
> [@Love\_Rhombus](#): > > > An acclaimed Russian ballet dancer has died in a fall Ballet dancers are known for their clumsiness, right? ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2024, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/697 "2024-11-18T15:49:12Z")
Naah, just their suicidal depression. Firearms being hard for Russian civilians to obtain, jumping off tall buildings’ balconies or out their windows is Russian society’s go-to can’t-miss method of suicide. /sarcasm ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2024, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/698 "2024-11-18T15:51:02Z")
> [@Sauron](#): > > Oh, they’ll shoot down all the ATACMs. They always have. They have certainly lost the devastating effectiveness they had in the early days, but they are still a big problem for Russia > **[HIMARS No Longer a Difficult Target: Russia MoD](https://www.defensemirror.com/news/36876/HIMARS_No_Longer_a_Difficult_Target__Russia_MoD)** > > Russia employs Buk-M1 Systems to intercept projectiles; while Ukrainian assessment reveals impact of Russian electronic jamming on HIMARS The problem now for Russia is that the ATACMS decision opens the door to France and the UK to allow Ukraine to use the SCALP missiles in a similar way, and they seem to be extremely effective in reaching their targets (though the Russians claim otherwise). ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2024, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/699 "2024-11-18T23:49:53Z")
Didn’t take long for Washington to back-pedal. Dammit. I thought Joe had finally grown a pair. > **[Atacms missiles: what are they and why are they important for Ukraine?](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/18/atacms-missiles-what-are-they-why-they-important-for-ukraine)** > > Joe Biden has given the green light for the US-made weapon to be used inside Russia. How will it affect the war? > [@](#): > > Officials in Washington told reporters [the weapons could be used in the region of Kursk](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/17/biden-has-lifted-ban-on-ukraine-using-us-weapons-to-strike-deeper-into-russia-reports), where Kyiv has launched an incursion, but that the US president may agree to their deployment elsewhere before Donald Trump comes to power. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2024, 1:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/700 "2024-11-19T01:22:12Z")
The Republicans position on Ukraine seems pretty clear. > **[Trump allies attack Biden for allowing Ukraine to use US missiles inside Russia](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/18/trump-biden-ukraine-missiles-russia)** > > President-elect’s surrogates accuse president of seeking to spark ‘world war three’ over decision to allow limited strikes ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2024, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/701 "2024-11-19T02:11:27Z")
Has been for over 8 years now. Even though the hot war is only 2-1/2 years old. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=34) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=36)