# Russia invades Ukraine -- The regional situation **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [December 30, 2023, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349 "2023-12-30T18:43:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 37
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2024, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/722 "2024-11-22T23:45:52Z")
For those who do not want to click the link: > Russia warned the U.S. 30 minutes before the launch of its Oreshnik missile against targets in Dnipro on Thursday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian news outlet TASS. > deputy Pentagon press secretary Sabrina Singh […] confirmed that the U.S. was notified “briefly” before the launch. A very Russian snub. _Delenda est Rossia!_ ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2024, 12:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/723 "2024-11-23T12:39:17Z")
Today I learned, Not all things are created equal. I never heard of THAAD until this morning. I wonder if there’s a security concern? A Russian special forces raid could steal the Tech? > **[US doesn't defend Ukraine with THAAD system like Israel due to 'different...](https://kyivindependent.com/thaad/)** > > "Different capabilities, different wars, different regions. The commitments also to Israel and Ukraine are different," Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh said. > [@](#): > > When asked why the U.S. would not deploy the THAAD system in neighboring Romania or Poland to help defend Ukraine’s west from Russian attacks, Singh cited different commitments to the countries, including a longstanding partnership with Israel. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2024, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/724 "2024-11-23T16:26:25Z")
I think there’s concern about that making the US a direct belligerent and were currently pretty escalation averse. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2024, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/725 "2024-11-23T22:48:38Z")
It’s refreshing to hear a Foreign leader express the threat from Russia in blunt terms. Interesting interview that covers financial commitments to fund Ukraine and long-range plans. > **[No 'red lines' in Ukraine support, French foreign minister tells BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czd5myvyrjzo)** > > Jean-Noël Barrot speaks to Laura Kuenssberg after a week of escalation in Ukraine. > [@](#): > > Barrot, who held talks with Foreign Secretary David Lammy in London on Friday, said Western allies should not put any limits on support for Ukraine against Russia, and “not set and express red lines”. > > Asked if this could even mean French troops in combat he said: “We do not discard any option.” > > "We will support Ukraine as intensely and as long as necessary. Why? Because it is our security that is at stake. **Each time the Russian army progresses by one square kilometre, the threat gets one square kilometre closer to Europe," he said**. > [@](#): > > When it comes to the next President, there is nervous pause while Trump’s plan remains unclear. The hope is to put Ukraine in the best possible position for any negotiation, several sources said, and an insider advising the government told me that might involve bigging up Trump’s own negotiation ability. “To get [Trump] into frame of mind where it is one that is good for Ukraine - so he looks like the guy who stopped the war not the guy that lost Ukraine.” ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2024, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/726 "2024-11-25T00:13:21Z")
This interesting article is from Estonia and talks about the national defense that Europe has to beef up in the future, taking Trump’s attitude towards Putin into consideration. > **[Meelis Oidsalu: Trump administration's 'scarecrows' meant to sow fear](https://news.err.ee/1609524724/meelis-oidsalu-trump-administration-s-scarecrows-meant-to-sow-fear)** > > Sooner or later, the peace process initiated by Donald Trump regarding Russia and Ukraine will encounter matters of ego that must be resolved in order to reach an agreement. Without addressing these, an agreement will not happen, if only because the... ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2024, 11:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/727 "2024-11-25T11:09:58Z")
Let us hope against reason that this has nothing to do with the [**bombs and the incendiary bombs Russia has been sending**](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/04/europe/russia-suspected-incendiary-devices-europe-intl-latam/index.html) on DHL cargo planes lately: > **[DHL cargo plane crashes near Lithuania airport](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/25/dhl-cargo-plane-crashes-near-lithuania-airport)** > > Officials say one person dead and three injured after plane crashed into house on approach to landing at Vilnius ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2024, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/728 "2024-11-25T23:16:09Z")
What a long list. The attacks have significantly ramped up sonce August. Has Ukraine launched any significant attacks on Russia’s energy grid? It might be wasteful for Ukraine to use their limited supply of missiles. Russia has expended a significant number for months with limited success. [https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-attacks-that-have-pounded-ukraines-power-facilities-2024-06-14/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-attacks-that-have-pounded-ukraines-power-facilities-2024-06-14/) ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [November 26, 2024, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/729 "2024-11-26T13:31:09Z")
Ukraine hit another military target with ATACMS. They seem to be picking targets carefully. Perhaps their supply is very limited? ISW also reported on the airfield strike. Link [Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 25, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-25-2024) Link [American-Made ATACMS Rain Down On A Front-Line Russian Air Base](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/11/25/its-exploding-a-russian-exclaims-as-ukraines-american-made-atacms-rain-down-on-a-front-line-air-base/) > [@](#): > > The raid may have had the effect of “potentially temporarily putting the airfield out of action,” [reported](https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1861099084146164165) Frontelligence Insight, a Ukrainian analysis group. That’s good news for the 20,000-strong Ukrainian force holding a 250-square-mile salient around the town of Sudzha 50 miles southwest of Khalino. That force [is expecting a massive Russian assault](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/11/24/50000-russians-are-poised-to-attack-20000-ukrainians-in-kursk-ukrainian-brigades-are-bracing-for-a-massive-fight/) in the coming days. > > Khalino is the closest major airfield to the Kursk battlefield, so it makes sense that the Russian air force has been staging its main ground-attack jets, subsonic Sukhoi Su-25s, at the base. The Russian Su-25 force has been badly bled by Ukrainian air defenses in the 33 months of Russia’s wider war on Ukraine: the Ukrainians have shot down or damaged around three dozen of the roughly 200 Su-25s the Russians operated prior to 2022 > [@](#): > > **Ukrainian forces struck a Russian oil depot in Kaluga Oblast and an airbase in Kursk Oblast on the night of November 24 to 25.** The Ukrainian General Staff reported on November 25 that units of Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) and the Ukrainian Armed Forces struck several important Russian assets in Bryansk, Kursk, and Kaluga oblasts on the night of November 24 to 25, including an oil depot in Kaluga Oblast.[16] Geolocated footage published on November 24 and 25 shows an explosion at the oil depot near Kaluga City and a subsequent fire in the area.[17] Kaluga Oblast officials reported that Russian forces downed several drones in the area and that debris from a drone caused a fire near an unspecified industrial enterprise near Kaluga City.[18] Geolocated footage and imagery published on November 25 indicate that Ukrainian forces also struck the Khalino Airfield and fields near Kursk City with several ATACMS missiles and drones.[19] Russian opposition outlet _Astra_ reported that Ukrainian forces launched at least seven ATACMS missiles and 12 drones at the airfield, and Russian milbloggers acknowledged the strike but claimed that Ukrainian forces did not significantly damage the airfield.[20] **A Russian insider source posted a photo claiming to show that a Ukrainian ATACMS strike recently destroyed the radar system of a Russian S-400 air defense system near Bolshoe Zhirovo (northwest of Kursk City), Kursk Oblast following Ukrainian reporting about the S-400 strike on November 24.**[21] ---
**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\ **Post date:** [November 26, 2024, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/730 "2024-11-26T13:42:31Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > Ukraine hit another military target with ATACMS. > They seem to be picking targets carefully. > Perhaps their supply is very limited? I wish I could recall the source, but I understand the number of long range ATACMS is in the neighborhood of around 50. They used a dozen of them on that recent underground command post attack. A high value target, so I get why they did it. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [November 26, 2024, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/731 "2024-11-26T13:59:47Z")
Nightime video of the airfield strike. Its the first yime I’ve seen how the cluster bombs scatter and explode. Video is less than 3 mins [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/2NqVbp6UDwo/maxresdefault.jpg "S-300/400 Fails to Intercept ATACMS at Khalino – Possibly Hit Too!") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2NqVbp6UDwo) ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2024, 12:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/732 "2024-11-30T12:35:36Z")
Rebels are reattempting to wrestle power away from President Assad in Syria who was supported by Russia via brutal bombing campaigns. All of Assad’s supporters have been weakened. Hezbolah and Iran have been weakened by Israel and of course Russia has been bogged down in Ukraine. The Russians launched airstrikes last night but this is a distraction Russia does not need. > **[Aleppo: Syria rebels 'control majority of the city', say observers](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly27r5p0yno)** > > Russia launched air raids in parts of the city overnight for the first time since 2016, a monitoring group says. Russia has used its force to control or repress many regions around its area of influence (such as Georgia, Kazakhstan and parts of the middle east and Africa), and the bigger nightmare for Russia is that some of these regions start agitating and forcing Putin to make some difficult choices. This uprising could well be a small flame that is easily snuffed out but it might also be the first of a number of dominos. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2024, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/733 "2024-11-30T18:04:22Z")
Imperial overreach is an ironclad certified bitch. OTOH there are lots of ways to delay the inevitable if you’re mostly there to vandalize, not profiteer. The 15th-19th century Europeans were mostly about profiteering. The Russians have always been about vandalism, and only vandalism. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2024, 7:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/734 "2024-12-01T07:20:21Z")
If Putin did nothing about Syria and just let the chips fall where they may, even if it led to the Assad regime’s downfall, what’s the worst that could happen? It sounds like Russia has its hands full with Ukraine and the rise or fall of Syria would affect Russia little except in some lost reputation, although Moscow’s reputation was already in the gutter anyway. The Doper abovethread mentioned that it could lead to dominoes falling but it sounds like Russia’s only true and pressing interest at the moment is Ukraine. ---
**Author:** ![Kedikat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed655f/32.png) [@Kedikat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kedikat)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2024, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/735 "2024-12-01T17:48:40Z")
Loss of the Tartus naval base would hurt. There are military, political connections with Iran and Syria that would be lost. They are not directly with Russia, but have a military regional effect. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2024, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/736 "2024-12-01T18:40:46Z")
There are lots of places around the world in Russia’s sphere of influence but not under their direct control, and others under direct control, but where that control is weaker than it might be. If anti-Russia forces succeed in one of them, that would encourage anti-Russia forces in others. It’d be especially significant if parts of the Russian hinterlands tried to break away, because that’s where they’re mostly getting troops from (it’s politically untenable to put too much pressure on the rich in Moscow). ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2024, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/737 "2024-12-01T18:51:49Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > The Russians have always been about vandalism, and only vandalism. I don’t believe this is true, otherwise Putin would not be the richest man on Earth, as he probably is. And the Wagner group has been about robbing and stealing from its inception, and has been very successful at it. Russians use vandalismus on the one hand as and end (see → sadism and psychopathology), but also as a means to enrich themselves. In the meantime, don’t lose sight of what is happening in Georgia: > **[Protesters in Tbilisi Clash With Georgian Police](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/01/world/europe/georgia-tbilisi-protest.html?unlocked_article_code=1.eE4.KB0x.AiyjMlr_L6Uz&smid=url-share)** > > The government’s decision to suspend its bid for European Union membership has driven thousands of protesters onto the streets. It is noteworthy how successful Putin has become at manipulating other countries elections: the Brexit referendum, Trump I, the rise of Marine LePen, the rise of the AfD, the rise of Georgina Meloni, the rise of Milei, the rise of Victor Orbán, Trump II, this month’s elections in Romania… I could go on. Damn, either he is very good, or we are stupid. I am afraid the latter comes closer to the truth: our leaders do not have what it takes. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2024, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/738 "2024-12-01T18:57:14Z")
> [@Pardel-Lux](#): > > I could go on. Damn, either he is very good, or we are stupid. I am afraid the latter comes closer to the truth: our leaders do not have what it takes. My brother used to say “What America needs is better Americans”. Our problem is not, or at least not entirely, our leaders. I’d argue bro’s aphorism applies just as well to most democracies, whether Asian, African, Oceania, the Americas, or Europe. Western-style progressive democratic technocratic society cannot survive 23rd Century tech & communications with 14th Century peasant-level thinking by half the populace. Hell it may not survive early 21st Century tech & comms. ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2024, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/739 "2024-12-01T19:17:22Z")
I agree with all of this and shall be adopting some of this phrasing for myself. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2024, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/740 "2024-12-01T19:30:05Z")
> [@Johnny\_L.A](#): > > As it pertains to _this_ war, Rosie is a legitimate target. She may have no choice but to support Putin’s regime, but she _is_ supporting it. This is not entirely consistent with international laws of war or, in my opinion, common sense or basic decency. It is the responsibility of a belligerent state to minimize civilian casualties to the greatest possible extent given legitimate military aims. Ukraine is entitled to defend itself and in so doing, reasonable military aims may present the danger of killing civilians. Ukraine has a legal and moral responsibility to avoid civilian casualties as much as reasonably possible. Deliberately killing the civilian worker is absolutely illegal and immoral. Attempting to destroy factories and other facilities engaged in military production MAY be legal, but only to the extent necessary for legitimate military aims. If you may demonstrate that it is necessary for Ukraine to destroy a tank factory, and such an attack is a reasonable use of military power for Ukraine to defend itself, then it can be justifiable. Destroying such a factory may kill civilians, though a military should, if possible, attempt to do so at a time when casualties will be minimized. But it is not _necessarily_ the case that a facility engaging in production related to military things is a reasonably meaningful target. I strongly suspect that had Iraq found a way to blow up a bus of people en route to work at a munitions factory in Houston in 2003, this would not have been met with a great deal of sympathy. ---
**Author:** ![Jeff\_Lichtman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jeff_lichtman/32/1531_2.png) [@Jeff\_Lichtman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jeff_Lichtman)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2024, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/741 "2024-12-01T20:00:09Z")
> [@Pardel-Lux](#): > > In the meantime, don’t lose sight of what is happening in Georgia: Yes. This is disturbingly similar to the events that led to Russia invading Ukraine in 2014, when Yanukovych declined a deal with the EU in favor of a trade deal with Russia. So far the protests in Georgia have not caused a change in government, but it could happen. That could lead to Russia invading Georgia, like it did with Ukraine. The Russian military is overextended now, but that could change shortly if Trump ends support for Ukraine. This isn’t regional, but Assad may be in trouble again. Rebels have entered Aleppo for the first time in years. Putin rescued Assad in 2015, and he may feel the need to do it again if things get serious enough in Syria. Again, the Russian military is overextended, but that may change in January. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=36) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=38)