# Russia invades Ukraine -- The regional situation **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [December 30, 2023, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349 "2023-12-30T18:43:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 39
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2024, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/762 "2024-12-04T22:57:50Z")
Ukraine, Aleppo, Grozni, and now the Baltic Sea. Is somebody trying to complicate a losing position in the hope the rival makes a mistake? That, in chess, is a move that looks like desperation: > **[Russian Warship Reportedly Fired ‘Signal Ammunition’ at German Military...](https://theaviationist.com/2024/12/04/russian-warship-fired-flare-german-helicopter/)** > > Limited details are presently available regarding the incident, which was apparently revealed by the German Foreign Minister at a NATO Meeting in I don’t think Putin is a good chess player. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2024, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/763 "2024-12-04T22:58:19Z")
ETA: @Chronos two above. They will have succeeded in gaining a bunch of territory and crippling Ukraine as a separate polity. That counts as success in Putin’s psychopathic book even though along the way he’s massively weakened Russia too. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2024, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/764 "2024-12-04T23:04:45Z")
Ukraine hasn’t been as weakened as Russia has. Eventually, Russia will be weakened enough that it collapses. It’s hard to say when, because an autocracy can hide the signs of weakness, but when this war does end, it’ll end very suddenly. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2024, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/765 "2024-12-05T02:32:24Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > No, it’s not. All it’s getting them is territory. This war will not be won nor lost on territory. This can’t be serious. The war is ABOUT territory. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2024, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/766 "2024-12-05T02:56:50Z")
If Russia’s initial stab at Kyiv had succeeded, then it would have been about territory. That possibility ended once the initial attack stalled out. Now, it’s just a question of how much suffering Russia can cause before their military (and probably everything else about the country in the process) is completely neutered. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2024, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/767 "2024-12-05T03:07:01Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Ukraine hasn’t been as weakened as Russia has. You’re basing this on what exactly? ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2024, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/768 "2024-12-06T16:52:32Z")
Romania has annulled the results of the first round of its Presidential elections after a constitutional court ruling. Russia has been trying in influence foreign elections for years now. Quite blatantly in Ukraine and other regions around its borders but also further afield and with increasing chutzpah. And TikTok being implicated does no favours for their attempts to evade santions in the West. Of course, Putin would like as many pro-Kremlin supporters in the EU and inside NATO as possible. > **[Romanian court annuls result of presidential election first round](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4x2epppego)** > > The move comes after allegations of Russian influence via social media on the first round of voting. > The first round was won by Calin Georgescu, an almost unknown far-right Nato-sceptic who has previously praised Vladimir Putin. > > The court’s decision comes after intelligence documents were declassified, suggesting Georgescu benefitted from a mass influence operation – conducted from abroad – to interfere with the result of the vote. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2024, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/769 "2024-12-07T19:19:40Z")
It looks like Damascus is about to fall, possibly as soon as this weekend. Rebels have captured a notorious prison, described by Amnesty International as a ‘human slaughterhouse’, that Assad used to imprison and execute countless opposition leaders and fighters. The rebels are in the suburbs of Damascus, approaching from both the south and north east, and Assad and his guards are nowhere to be seen. One of Putin’s dominoes is teetering on the edge. Good riddance. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2024, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/770 "2024-12-07T19:46:13Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > If Russia’s initial stab at Kyiv had succeeded, then it would have been about territory. That possibility ended once the initial attack stalled out What are you talking about, man? No, the failure to end the war quickly doesn’t mean it’s not about territory. Russia’s entire war effort has been around pushing Ukraine back and annexing territory. They’ve ALREADY announced a partial annexation. Russia’s entire effort here is about taking territory. Annexation is their goal. They will likely succeed, too, given Trump is their lapdog. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2024, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/771 "2024-12-07T20:10:36Z")
But the point is, short of Kyiv, they can’t win the war by annexing territory. Annexing territory doesn’t stop Ukraine from fighting back. Ukraine, meanwhile, also can’t win by taking territory… which is why they’re not trying to, but instead targeting things that will (eventually) stop Russia from fighting. And once Russia can’t fight any more, then Ukraine can take back all of their territory. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2024, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/772 "2024-12-07T20:15:29Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > But the point is, short of Kyiv, they can’t win the war by annexing territory. Annexing territory doesn’t stop Ukraine from fighting back. It absolutely does if Ukraine is forced to accept it (or, worse, collapses) by being stabbed in the back by the Trump administration. Starting January 21, Ukraine’s access to U.S. aid will start to dry up and, more importantly, their access to intelligence. Shortly after that Russia will start to get U.S. intelligence. Putin is rubbing his hands in glee. There is never going to be a point where Ukraine can go on the offensive and Russia will be unable to fight back. Not in 2025, not in 2026, not in 2027. That’s total fantasy. Ukraine’s only hope is Trump leaves office early or there is a coup d’etat in Russia, and even those might not matter. ---
**Author:** ![JacobSwan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a6a055/32.png) [@JacobSwan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JacobSwan)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2024, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/773 "2024-12-07T20:17:02Z")
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#): > > It looks like Damascus is about to fall, possibly as soon as this weekend. Luckily nobody seems to have had a change of heart on the road there. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2024, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/774 "2024-12-07T20:38:56Z")
Well Russia might try to step up after all… from the BBC just now: > The Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has said it’s inadmissible to allow a group he described as terrorists to take over Syria. > > Lavrov was speaking after meeting his counterparts from Iran and Turkey in Qatar. Russia has been an ally of President Bashar al-Assad and intervened to enable him to stay in power almost a decade ago. > > But it has not provided a similar level of military support in the past week. > > Speaking to reporters, Lavrov said the offensive by the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham had been “long-planned and is an attempt to change the situation on the ground, to change the balance of power”. > > He added that Moscow would “oppose this in every possible way”. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2024, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/775 "2024-12-07T20:58:24Z")
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#): > > “oppose this in every possible way”. Sounds a lot like Russian for “thoughts and prayers.” ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2024, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/776 "2024-12-07T22:01:16Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > > [@Chronos](#): > > > > But the point is, short of Kyiv, they can’t win the war by annexing territory. Annexing territory doesn’t stop Ukraine from fighting back. > > It absolutely does if Ukraine is forced to accept it (or, worse, collapses) by being stabbed in the back by the Trump administration. > > Starting January 21, Ukraine’s access to U.S. aid will start to dry up and, more importantly, their access to intelligence. Shortly after that Russia will start to get U.S. intelligence. Putin is rubbing his hands in glee. > > There is never going to be a point where Ukraine can go on the offensive and Russia will be unable to fight back. Not in 2025, not in 2026, not in 2027. That’s total fantasy. Ukraine’s only hope is Trump leaves office early or there is a coup d’etat in Russia, and even those might not matter. What you’re describing is Russia winning by suborning the U.S., not by winning territory. ---
**Author:** ![smithsb](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smithsb/32/12107_2.png) [@smithsb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smithsb)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2024, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/777 "2024-12-08T01:33:37Z")
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#): > > He added that Moscow would “oppose this in every possible way”. He’s off his game. No direct nuclear threats. Weak, Sad. And at this point, toothless. Insufficient troops, air power, the Syrian military in total disarray, no local support, seen as occupiers and murderers - it’s over except for the verbal flailing… ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2024, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/778 "2024-12-08T01:48:44Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > But the point is, short of Kyiv, they can’t win the war by annexing territory. If your goal is annexing territory, that is winning. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2024, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/779 "2024-12-08T03:19:45Z")
> [@Pleonast](#): > > What you’re describing is Russia winning by suborning the U.S., not by winning territory. It was winning territory, _then_ suborning the United States in that order. Remember Russia took wide swaths of Ukraine by 2022 and while they’ve lost some from their high-water mark, they certainly hold way more than they did in 2014. If they sense any weakness will doubtless demand at least a little more besides (all of Donetsk and Luhansk at a minimum, I suspect). [![](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a6/United_Nations_OHCHR_map_of_Russian-occupied_Ukraine_in_2023_%282024%29.png) ](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a6/United_Nations_OHCHR_map_of_Russian-occupied_Ukraine_in_2023_%282024%29.png) ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2024, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/780 "2024-12-08T03:34:14Z")
Right, Russia is taking territory, but the point is that that’s not sufficient to win the war. They need external help. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2024, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/781 "2024-12-08T03:59:58Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > If they sense any weakness will doubtless demand at least a little more besides (all of Donetsk and Luhansk at a minimum, I suspect). They’re already demanding all of Ukraine. What they’re demanding is irrelevant, unless they can win the war. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=38) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=40)