# Russia invades Ukraine -- The regional situation **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [December 30, 2023, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349 "2023-12-30T18:43:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 40
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2024, 8:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/782 "2024-12-08T08:05:31Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > They’re already demanding all of Ukraine. What they’re demanding is irrelevant, unless they can win the war. Far more likely they settle for less, plus something like a “no NATO” guarantee. Then re-arm, try to stabilize their economy and manufacture an excuse to try again for the rest somewhere down the road. The war is destabilizing and draining for Russia as well and Putin just needs a substantial victory of some sort. Luhansk and Donetsk with much of Zaporzhia and Kherson is substantial and solves some of Russia’s strategic problems around Crimea. Russia doesn’t have to flat-out overrun Ukraine. Just force them into a corner by exhausting them and presenting a scenario where further fighting seems both pointless and hopeless. If US aid disappears and the European side of NATO can’t or won’t keep up, a sudden morale drop could effectively undermine Ukraine to the point where a negotiated peace with losses seems a necessity for even short-lived survival. Hopefully that won’t happen. But it’s a pretty plausible outcome. ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2024, 10:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/783 "2024-12-08T10:15:23Z")
Bashar al-Assad has allegedly already fled Syria: > **[Bashar al-Assad reported to have fled Syria as rebels say they have captured...](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/08/bashar-al-assad-reported-to-have-fled-syria-as-rebels-say-they-have-captured-damascus)** > > Celebrations on streets of Syrian cities as as Assad regime appears to have fallen That went fast, all of a sudden! Reminds me of the fall of the Berlin Wall: nothing happens, nothing happens, nothing happens… until it does, at at a fast pace. My prediction: same will happen in Russia. The question, of course, is when. Now another interesting detail is where did el-Assad flee to? Russia, to thank Labrov for his unwavering support? Iran? To think that had he accepted that he was not wanted in Syria when the whole mess started instead of clinging to power by means of torture, mass execution, poison gas attacks on civilians, mass encarcerations and so on he could have enjoyed the classy life of a billionaire former dictator among friends in London with his beautiful wife, filling the glossy pages of gossip magazines. His daughters and grand-daughters could have become something useful, like socialites, it-girls or influencers. And now, what’s to become of them? A bad example _pour encourager les autres comme Poutine_ at best, if his demise is even captured on video, Gaddafi style? ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2024, 11:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/784 "2024-12-08T11:54:30Z")
I thought there were indications that his plane disappeared from radar not long after take-off? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2024, 12:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/785 "2024-12-08T12:51:47Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > Far more likely they settle for less, plus something like a “no NATO” guarantee. Then re-arm, try to stabilize their economy and manufacture an excuse to try again for the rest somewhere down the road. Which is exactly why Ukraine will never accept such a deal. No matter how badly the war is hurting them, they know full well that a “peace” on Russia’s terms will hurt them even more. So they’ll keep on fighting until they can set the terms, because they have no choice. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2024, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/786 "2024-12-08T13:53:39Z")
An IL-76 did drop below radar. It had taken off from Damascus and was flying over Homs headed NW when it started losing altitude and eventually disappearing off radar. However, no crash site has been identified, so most likely there isn’t one (rebels would have posted video on social media by now) and the aircraft probably intentionally dropped to very low altitude so it could proceed without being tracked. And it’s not known that Assad was on the flight to begin with. It’s just that it left Damascus right around when the rebels were moving into the city, so people speculated that it was Assad fleeing. But it’s possible, likely even, that Assad had left in secret some time before that. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2024, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/787 "2024-12-08T15:06:50Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > Far more likely they settle for less, plus something like a “no NATO” guarantee. They can promise to guarantee the ‘no NATO’ clause to the same extent Russia upholds treaties. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2024, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/788 "2024-12-08T15:44:38Z")
> [@Johnny\_L.A](#): > > They can promise to guarantee the ‘no NATO’ clause to the same extent Russia upholds treaties. In a perfect world, Ukraine would cheerfully guarantee no NATO, and the 101st Airborne would land before the ink dried. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2024, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/789 "2024-12-08T15:49:48Z")
In a perfect world, Muscovia would be a minor regional power in Eastern Europe that hadn’t ever colonized the rest of Eastern Europe and most of northern Asia to begin with. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2024, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/790 "2024-12-09T00:04:34Z")
> [@Pleonast](#): > > What you’re describing is Russia winning by suborning the U.S., not by winning territory. Their intention is WINNING TERRITORY. Obviously. It’s literally what they are trying to do right now. However they take the land, that’s what victory is. If they can make that way easier with US help, they will, but taking the land is still the point. Why the hell do YOU think they’re fighting the war? ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2024, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/791 "2024-12-09T01:28:49Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Why the hell do YOU think they’re fighting the war? Russia seeks to destabilize and replace regimes hostile to it in order to reestablish the regional hegemony it used to have. The mere existence of an openly hostile Ukraine proves that Russia is weak and unable to exert its power externally. And that same weakness will give hope to internal Russian resistance. Taking territory is winning for Russia only in the sense that it’s actively exercising its power. Any cessation of war that allows a hostile Ukraine to continue to exist will be a loss, since it indicates to all nearby powers (external and internal) that the Russian regime cannot enforce its will at this moment. Note that it’s quite possible (most likely outcome at this point) for both Ukraine and Russia to lose the war, with both left in an unstable and impotent condition. ---
**Author:** ![Kedikat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed655f/32.png) [@Kedikat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kedikat)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2024, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/792 "2024-12-09T03:12:59Z")
As far as territory is concerned. I think the Russians do not want to go too far west. Better to claim territory with a higher percentage of Russian ethnic/friendly inhabitants. Even then it will be trouble to enfold them fully into Russia. To keep even those folks happy will require a ton of resources to rebuild the areas. The current Russian demands as far as territory and security for a peace agreement though pretty extreme as to Ukraine just ceding territory, make sense to Russia. Key issue, neutrality forever. But if Russia really would stop there is odd. If it is a security issue, then I think they would want the area North of a line from Khakiv to Chernihiv as well. Cut some miles off a shot to Moscow. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2024, 4:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/793 "2024-12-09T04:09:06Z")
Are the Russian-ethnic regions even friendly to Russia? I seem to recall that Kharkiv, a Ukrainian region with a very high percentage of Russian-ethnic inhabitants, put up very intense resistance against the Russian invasion. Doesn’t seem to me that we can assume that DNA = affiliation. ---
**Author:** ![Kedikat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed655f/32.png) [@Kedikat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kedikat)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2024, 4:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/794 "2024-12-09T04:26:41Z")
Oh yes. Correct. It is not a guarantee. But the chances are higher. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2024, 5:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/795 "2024-12-09T05:02:29Z")
It will be interesting to see if resources in Ukraine are resourced to Syria. I think Putin will protect these Russian assets. Of course it all depends on rebel forces intentions. Link [https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-bases-syria-threatened-by-insurgent-advance-say-moscows-war-bloggers-2024-12-07/](https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-bases-syria-threatened-by-insurgent-advance-say-moscows-war-bloggers-2024-12-07/) > [@](#): > > Rapid advances by the [insurgents](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/abu-mohammed-al-golani-former-al-qaeda-chief-who-is-syrias-leading-rebel-2024-12-05/) threaten to undermine Russia’s geopolitical clout in the Middle East and its ability to project power in the region, across the Mediterranean and into [Africa](https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-power-creeps-across-west-africa-with-equatorial-guinea-mission-2024-11-12/). They also risk dealing an embarrassing setback to President [Vladimir Putin](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/donald-trump/), who casts Russia’s intervention in Syria as an example of how Moscow can use force to shape events [far away](https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-discusses-security-cooperation-with-west-central-african-leaders-2024-03-27/) and compete with the West. > > But Russian war bloggers, some of whom are close to the Russian Defence Ministry and whom the Russian authorities allow greater freedom to speak out than the military, say **the most immediate threat is to the future of Russia’s Hmeimim airbase in Syria’s Latakia province and to its naval facility at Tartous on the coast.** > > The Tartous facility is Russia’s only Mediterranean repair and replenishment hub, and Moscow has used Syria as a staging post to fly its military contractors in and out of Africa ---
**Author:** ![Kedikat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed655f/32.png) [@Kedikat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kedikat)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2024, 5:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/796 "2024-12-09T05:56:11Z")
Syria has fallen, so no big force will be moved in. Maybe the opposite. It remains to be seen if the coastal Russian facilities will remain. At this point it may not be clear who if anybody has real control over the “Rebels”. Turkiye had a major hand in supporting and staging them. Others gave support as well. But will they have control? Turkiye and Russia have an interesting relationship. Erdogan is a skilled one at playing various sides to his own benefit. Often pissing off folks and changing the game, but squeaking through. Maybe Russia can retain the bases on the coast. But they may not do it, even if it is offered as an option. They do still have to be nice with Erdogan, as he controls the route to the Black Sea. This may actually free up more resources for Russia to supply to Iran. ---
**Author:** ![Askance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askance/32/8281_2.png) [@Askance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askance)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2024, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/797 "2024-12-10T00:27:35Z")
An alleged Syria expert on local TV claimed yesterday that the rebels had a tacit go-ahead from Russia, the US and Turkey. No evidence presented of course. But given that, they are unlikely to dislodge Russia from their naval and air bases. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2024, 4:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/798 "2024-12-10T04:16:11Z")
Russia is relocating both air and sea assets. Remains to be seen if it’s permanent or precautionary. ---
**Author:** ![Askance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askance/32/8281_2.png) [@Askance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askance)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2024, 4:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/799 "2024-12-10T04:32:15Z")
Hmmm … as I understand it the Russian naval base in Syria is their only one in the Med. Unless Turkey allows them to transit to the Black Sea (NOT good news for Ukraine if so) they’d have to go to their Baltic bases, or somewhere like Cuba. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2024, 5:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/800 "2024-12-10T05:03:55Z")
Correct. As I understand it the ships are just off coast at the moment, but they’d have to head to the Baltic sea if they lose access to the Tartus base. Potentially pretty significant loss for them. Signals how much Ukraine has taken a toll on them and how much Israel has taken a toll on Iran / Hezbollah that the hugely important assets (Russian bases and Iranian supply lines) aren’t able to be defended. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2024, 11:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/801 "2024-12-10T11:52:18Z")
Saving the ships be sailing away is nice and all. But … The base also represents repair shops and parts and ammunition storage. All of which will be looted by the invading revolutionaries unless Russia can somehow make a deal with them ASAP. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=39) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=41)