# Russia invades Ukraine -- The regional situation **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [December 30, 2023, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349 "2023-12-30T18:43:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 43
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2024, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/842 "2024-12-26T19:56:30Z")
Interesting. Even worse than thought. If it had been mistaken for a Ukrainian drone or warplane, that would have been one thing, but this means the Russians knew perfectly well it was just an airliner but still fired on it anyway. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2024, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/843 "2024-12-26T23:50:41Z")
That is strange for Russia to attack a friendly country’s airliner. Makes me wonder if some nervous Air Defense Tech acted without checking with his superiors. Russia is on a war footing and air defense systems are getting tested hourly. It’s still reprehensible regardless of the war. @smithsb thanks for the link. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2024, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/844 "2024-12-26T23:52:16Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > Russia is on a war footing and air defense is getting trsted daily. I dunno; I sure don’t trst them. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2024, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/845 "2024-12-26T23:56:30Z")
I can’t type and got rejected for a job in air defense. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2024, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/846 "2024-12-28T17:02:59Z")
Well, this one’s so obvious even The Big Boss has to issue an evasive apology… [Putin apologizes to Azerbaijani leader for ‘tragic’ plane crash | AP News](https://apnews.com/article/russia-putin-plane-crash-azerbaijan-a5b0ffa3e410df53556b0cd824f32a6f) “A tragic incident in Russian airspace…” Do tell, Vlad. Why do I think there’s a whole SAM battery that will be accounted as “all hands lost heroically in a drone strike” before we make it far into the new year? ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2024, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/847 "2024-12-28T17:25:15Z")
Since this was an intentional act (the airliner had consistently identified itself as an airliner), I’m trying to understand what Putin thinks was the benefit of this. 1. Shoot down Azerbaijani airliner 2. Apologize 3. ??? 4. Benefit! ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2024, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/848 "2024-12-28T18:22:58Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > I’m trying to understand what Putin thinks was the benefit of this. I’m pretty much 99+% certain this was just an accident, combining stupidly intransigent air traffic controllers, poor communication and jumpy missile battery operators in a what is functionally a war zone. Russian IFF appears to be just generally shitty - everything looks like a target. So something harmless veering off course to someplace unexpected reads as a threat. Putin and Russia aren’t interested in shooting down random Azerbaijani airliners. They just fucked the dog and not for the first time. Sadly probably not the last time, either. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2024, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/849 "2024-12-28T18:48:45Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > Russian IFF appears to be just generally shitty - everything looks like a target. Not to disagree with your conclusions, but I think ‘generally shitty’ is far too weak as a descriptor of IFF that can’t distinguish between airliners with their transponders on and Ukrainian drones. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2024, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/850 "2024-12-28T18:52:59Z")
Yeah, if IFF were the case, then we’d have dozens of airliners shot down every week. (Edit, never mind) ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2024, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/851 "2024-12-28T18:59:50Z")
No, that makes no sense. Azerbaijan is nominally an ally. There’s no gain here for Russia whatsoever. It’s a colossal fuckup. IFF systems that aren’t great at the best of times stuck into the worst of times, compounded by poorly trained personnel, quite possibly either drunk or hung over, and an airliner that was outside of the normal flightpaths. The surprising thing is that it took this long to happen. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2024, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/852 "2024-12-28T19:23:21Z")
> [@Gorsnak](#): > > but I think ‘generally shitty’ is far too weak as a descriptor of IFF that can’t distinguish between airliners with their transponders on and Ukrainian drones. It just now occurred to me to wonder how many poor drone-sized [Grey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grey_heron) and [Purple Herons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purple_heron) have triggered missile launches or panicky ground fire 🫤. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2024, 11:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/853 "2024-12-28T23:25:55Z")
Why yes, the Cold War is back. I think it’s even more dangerous now. There’s a link in the 2nd quote. Discusses the security risks to the undersea cables. How can thousands of miles of sea be defended? Link [https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/12/28/nato-baltic-sea-undersea-power-cable-estlink-spy-russia-war/](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/12/28/nato-baltic-sea-undersea-power-cable-estlink-spy-russia-war/) > [@](#): > > A Finnish coastguard crew boarded the Eagle S on Thursday and sailed the vessel to Finnish waters, a coast guard official said. > > The vessel is said to have been kitted out with special transmitting and receiving devices that monitor all naval activity, according to shipping journal Lloyd’s List citing a source with direct involvement in the ship. > > “They were monitoring all Nato naval ships and aircraft,” the source said, adding: “They had all details on them. They were just matching their frequencies.” > > The source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said the vessel was loaded with “huge portable suitcases” and “many laptops” with Turkish and Russian-language keyboards on the ship’s bridge. > > Those on board the ship would have been aware of the spying activities but would have been “threatened with their life, so everybody kept quiet”, the source told the journal > [@](#): > > Germany has described the most recent suspected sabotage as a [“wake-up call”](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/22/undersea-water-cables-real-threat-national-security/) that demanded new EU sanctions against Russia’s “shadow fleet”. > > “Almost every month, ships are [damaging major undersea cables](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/02/undersea-cables-internet-map-powerful-weapon-huawei-china/) in the Baltic Sea,” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said in a statement to the Funke media group. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2024, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/854 "2024-12-30T20:11:05Z")
Another aid package. Where is Ukraine warehousing all this military equipment and supplies? There’s no place inside Ukraine safe from Russia’s bombers. > **[Biden announces nearly $2.5 billion more in military aid for Ukraine](https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-biden-military-weapons-a34bc2204def6c9f5f17cf2ebfcb6bd8)** > > President Joe Biden says the United States will send nearly $2.5 billion more in weapons to Ukraine. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2024, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/855 "2024-12-30T20:46:42Z")
There’s no place that’s 100.0% safe, but for most of the country, the odds are strongly in Ukraine’s favor. Even Kyiv, a high-value target whose exact location Russia knows precisely and which isn’t moving, is mostly untouched. Now take a location that’s even further west, whose coordinates aren’t published. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2024, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/856 "2024-12-30T22:06:19Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > Where is Ukraine warehousing all this military equipment and supplies? Can’t it be stockpiled in Poland until needed? Or is there a danger that the new administration might try to claw it back? ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2024, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/857 "2024-12-30T23:41:30Z")
I’ve read that some of the hardware comes from draw downs of US military inventory. I think that should arrive ASAP. Some hardware has to be manufactured and delivered later. If I understand correctly, the US contracts assure companies that they can invest in upgrading their factories to fill these orders. That’s a crucial US benefit. We’ve already ramped up production and creating new US jobs. If things heat up between NATO and Russia; we have some military hardware manufacturing already in place. Link [Biden says U.S. will send $2.5 billion more in military aid to Ukraine | PBS News](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/biden-says-u-s-will-send-2-5-billion-more-in-military-aid-to-ukraine) > [@](#): > > The package includes $1.25 billion in presidential drawdown authority, which allows the military to pull existing stock from its shelves and gets weapons to the battlefield faster. It also has $1.22 billion in longer-term weapons packages to be put on contract through the separate Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, or USAI. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2024, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/858 "2024-12-31T00:27:42Z")
You disperse it, hide it, and guard it with air defense. Russia does target depots and has been successful in the past. They don’t have the targeting or munitions to get it all/enough though. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2024, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/859 "2024-12-31T02:17:13Z")
Any specific details on the $2.5 billion? Like, Javelins/Stingers/GMLRS/Bradley etc. ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2024, 7:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/860 "2024-12-31T07:56:43Z")
That’s exactly what the Russians would want to know, wouldn’t they? ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2024, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/861 "2024-12-31T18:00:48Z")
Another article, this one from Estonia, on that undersea cable being intentionally damaged by ship’s anchors. They noticed that the ship in question was not behaving as it should, and it certainly seems deliberate. > **[Prime minister knew EstLink 2 damage could be sabotage within hour](https://news.err.ee/1609563794/prime-minister-knew-estlink-2-damage-could-be-sabotage-within-hour)** > > Prime Minister Kristen Michal (Reform) knew that the breakage of the Estlink 2 electricity cable may have resulted from sabotage within an hour on December 25. Estonian and Finnish authorities cooperated closely throughout the operation this week. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=42) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=44)