# Russia invades Ukraine -- The regional situation **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [December 30, 2023, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349 "2023-12-30T18:43:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 44
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2025, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/862 "2025-01-02T15:40:34Z")
The article raises questions about possible developments in 2025. Of course, a new US President brings new changes. But Russia and Ukraine have their own interests and agendas. It’s unlikely there will be any quick solution. > **[How the Ukraine War could come to an end in 2025](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2ldpnyewx1o)** > > Ahead of Trump's second term, talk is turning towards how the conflict might finish - and what it would take from each side > [@](#): > > “It’s critical to have strong, legal and practical guarantees,” Andriy Yermak, head of President Zelensky’s office, told Ukraine’s public broadcaster on 12 December. > > Ukraine’s recent past, he said, had left a bitter legacy. “Unfortunately, from our experience, all the guarantees we had before did not result in security.” > > Without concrete mechanisms akin to the sort of collective defence concept embodied by Article 5 of Nato’s founding treaty, observers fear there will be nothing to prevent another Russian attack. > > “Zelensky understands that he cannot just have a naked ceasefire,” Orysia Lutsevych says. > > "It has to be a ceasefire plus. It would be suicide for Zelensky just to accept a ceasefire and not to have any answer how Ukraine is protected. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2025, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/863 "2025-01-02T16:32:46Z")
Of course _if_ his choices are reduced to 1. Accept a negotiated peace with flimsy guarantees while the West is still paying some attention to Ukraine’s plight. OR 2. Hold out for better and simply be defeated on the battlefield as the West walks away (or is led away by Putin’s stooges, trump to the fore). _then_ Deal #1 might start looking pretty attractive. As always in the raw part of human affairs, you don’t get what you deserve. You get what you have the power to get/take. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2025, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/864 "2025-01-02T17:02:00Z")
I wouldn’t be surprised if our new President cancels some Russian sanctions. As a twisted incentive to kick start peace talks. AFAIK the President has that power? I think it’s a bad idea, but I’m not making those decisions. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2025, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/865 "2025-01-07T15:36:50Z")
I’ve probably mentioned this before in this or another Ukraine-related thread, but the Dopers here in this thread would probably enjoy the blog I posted about here: > [@Why do military reporters always tell us about companies, battalions, divisions, etc? Why can’t they report the numbers?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-military-reporters-always-tell-us-about-companies-battalions-divisions-etc-why-can-t-they-report-the-numbers/1012638/18): > > For anyone interested in a learned POV on the war not as a battlefield play-by-play but as a geo-political exercise, I strongly recommend these folks. I’ve been following them for a long time. ---
**Author:** ![Askance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askance/32/8281_2.png) [@Askance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askance)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2025, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/866 "2025-01-13T01:23:56Z")
> **[Sweden neither at war nor at peace, says PM, as warships sent to Baltic Sea](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jan/12/swedish-pm-war-peace-armed-forces-enter-baltic?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other)** > > Ulf Kristersson says ‘hostile intent cannot be ruled out’ as increased surveillance follows suspected cable sabotage ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2025, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/867 "2025-01-13T14:59:08Z")
Ukraine has captured 2 N Koreans. It’s been difficult because they’re killed by their own forces to avoid capture. > **[Zelensky offers exchange of North Korean soldiers](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn57z316y02o)** > > One of the soldiers thought he was going to Russia for "training", Kyiv's security service said. > **[Seoul's spy agency says North Korean soldiers captured in Ukraine haven't...](https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-soldiers-capture-ukraine-russia-defect-141433c872649d55358748b179781758)** > > Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he’s willing to hand over the soldiers to North Korea, if Kim Jong Un arranges for an exchange with Ukrainian prisoners of war in Russia. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2025, 9:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/868 "2025-01-15T09:16:26Z")
Does anyone know if Lockheed Martin has upped the production of HIMARS and ATACMS missiles? ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2025, 9:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/869 "2025-01-15T09:34:26Z")
According to this source, production of HIMARS was “on track” to have doubled from 48 launcher trucks to 96 (per year) just recently. Not sure whether Lockheed actually did reach that target goal though. > **[Ramped Production Supports Future Deterrence Needs](https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/news/features/2024/ramped-production-supports-future-deterrence-needs.html)** > > As current and future deterrence needs evolve, Lockheed Martin continues to increase the delivery of critical defense systems. This link below says that ATACMS production has increased too. [https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2024/05/production-surge-eases-pentagon-worries-about-sending-long-range-missiles-to-ukraine-00155846](https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2024/05/production-surge-eases-pentagon-worries-about-sending-long-range-missiles-to-ukraine-00155846) ---
**Author:** ![smithsb](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smithsb/32/12107_2.png) [@smithsb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smithsb)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2025, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/870 "2025-01-15T18:04:04Z")
The PrSM is in low rate production. ATACMS is still a viable weapon. Production continues for both US and Foreign Military Sales. “The Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) is replacing the MGM-140 ATACMS missile in the U.S. Army. The PrSM is a short-range ballistic missile that’s faster, slimmer, and has a longer range than the ATACMS.” ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2025, 10:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/871 "2025-01-29T10:55:51Z")
It’s not really regional, but not really war news, so I guess this story belongs here. It’s not unexpected, but still disturbing that Russia would whitewash their past. [https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-issues-school-textbook-saying-it-was-forced-march-into-ukraine-2025-01-27/](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-issues-school-textbook-saying-it-was-forced-march-into-ukraine-2025-01-27/) ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2025, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/872 "2025-02-08T18:46:05Z")
Probably a real accident. The Russians nearly got in their lifeboats. I wonder if they had a way to scuttle the ship? Keep what’s on board out of NATO’s hands? Unfortunately we’ll never know. I know the US didn’t take similar action with the USS Pueblo in 1968. N. Korea embarrassed the US with photos. > **[A Russian spy ship caught fire off Syria, officials say. Here's what it...](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/russian-spy-ship-caught-fire-off-syrias-coast-118556065)** > > The Associated Press has obtained audio of what military officials say is a broadcast from a Russian spy ship that suffered a fire and drifted uncontrolled off Syria's coast last month > [@](#): > > They said the crew eventually regained control and that the Kildin is still stationed and gathering intelligence off the Syrian port of Tartus, accompanied by a frigate and a supply vessel. It is not clear what caused the blaze. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2025, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/873 "2025-02-24T04:18:47Z")
Denmark is now spending much more heavily on defense. > **[This NATO ally will ‘buy, buy, buy’ more weapons as quickly as possible after...](https://www.yahoo.com/news/nato-ally-buy-buy-buy-174149642.html)** > > "This is particularly true if Russia assesses that the US cannot or will not support the European NATO countries in a war with Russia." ---
**Author:** ![Kedikat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed655f/32.png) [@Kedikat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kedikat)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2025, 5:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/874 "2025-02-24T05:22:56Z")
The problem is the production side. You can show up with the money, but end up behind many others in a long waiting list that is many years long. Especially the " cutting edge " stuff. Even a lot of the basic stuff is backed up by slow production. Or having to restart production. And it is a mostly for profit system. So if there are a lot of buyers with limited production, prices go up. Countries need to strike a balance of free enterprise and solid production systems. Maybe just put out the development contracts. Once the profit motivated folks have come up with the thing you want, they get a good payday. But then the state takes over to produce the thing. Pay a royalty back per unit. Probably pay for the designers to keep up a service contract. Build flexible production facilities that can be changed quickly to make different items. Robots, computers, modular assembly lines. A few things are state produced. But not enough. Also keep it in country. Put your money back into your industry as much as you can. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2025, 11:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/875 "2025-02-25T11:51:44Z")
Building up a military to e.g. double its current capability is the work of a decade or two. Not a year or two. Getting a bunch of new rifle-toters is easy enough. Getting them enough trucks and rifle ammunition is harder. Getting the whole country all the rest of what it takes to be an effective army / navy / air force, not just an mostly-effective vandalizing force like Russia has, is a far larger order. ---
**Author:** ![Kelevra](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/97f17d/32.png) [@Kelevra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kelevra)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2025, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/876 "2025-02-28T19:46:26Z")
Looks like Zelensky didn’t properly kowtow to Trump. I’m sure Trump was just looking for an excuse to stop supporting Ukraine. > **[Live updates: Trump blasts Zelenskyy as 'disrespectful' in public blowup at...](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/live-blog/trump-zelenskyy-russia-ukraine-white-house-live-updates-rcna193942)** > > Follow live updates as President Donald Trump receives Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House and the foreign aid freeze appeal is due at the Supreme Court. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2025, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/877 "2025-02-28T22:11:08Z")
I wonder if China will try and become the peace maker now? It would be a power move for the ages. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2025, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/878 "2025-02-28T22:43:43Z")
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#): > > I wonder if China will try and become the peace maker now? They already have Russia on a leash. And the U.S. is the weakest it’s been since before WWII. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2025, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/879 "2025-02-28T23:53:16Z")
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#): > > … peace maker … I think the words that fit better there are “terms dictator”. China will not be being nice to be nice. They will be pursuing a solution advantageous to them and ideally disadvantageous to everyone else. And doing so in a manner with Chinese characteristics. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2025, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/880 "2025-03-01T00:01:37Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > China will not be being nice to be nice. They will be pursuing a solution advantageous to them and ideally disadvantageous to everyone else. And doing so in a manner with Chinese characteristics. Of course, but their prize is to replace the US as the leaders of the ~~free~~ world ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2025, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/881 "2025-03-01T02:08:35Z")
What odds the Chinese offer to fund and equip Ukraine in place of the USA? Just imagine how that could shake up and realign the world. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=43) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=45)