# Russia invades Ukraine -- The regional situation

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Tags:** ukraine-invasion\
**Created:** [December 30, 2023, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349 "2023-12-30T18:43:41Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 51

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**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\
**Post date:** [June 2, 2025, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1002 "2025-06-02T14:06:52Z")

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> [@Odesio](#):
>
> I’m a little confused by this statement. The way I see it, it cannot have been a very clean military strike _and_ an example of randomly killing civilians.

I think you’re misinterpreting the statement. The effectiveness of this “clean” military-only strike provides a _road map_ for using drones to indiscriminately attack civilian spaces; it is not an _example of_ such.

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**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\
**Post date:** [June 2, 2025, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1003 "2025-06-02T14:56:26Z")

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> [@Snarky\_Kong](#):
>
> You have to stop this with counter intelligence not by hardening airbases. That is, roll up the networks that ran the op and/or manufacturer/smuggled the explosives, not have point defenses that shoot down small drones.

The USA is more vulnerable to this sort of attack than many countries, I should think.

Intelligence is always the best defense, but the size and scope of the operation matters too. Stopping one or two shipping containers with attack drones is an easier matter than stopping 50 coming in from nine or ten different ports and points of entry. Grabbing some at the Vancouver border crossing might not help if you don’t catch the ones coming in the Port of Los Angeles.

Apparently, Russian logistics right now is at an absolute standstill because cargo is being panic-inspected everywhere. Freezing the country up like that could cost Russia as much as the loss of Tu-95s does.

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**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\
**Post date:** [June 2, 2025, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1004 "2025-06-02T15:56:51Z")

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This strikes me as not that big a deal for terrorism purposes. Wildly logistically complex vs buying a gun or renting a truck to drive through crowds. Would enable attacking an open air stadium which would be a pretty big win, but meh.

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**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\
**Post date:** [June 2, 2025, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1005 "2025-06-02T15:58:50Z")

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I’m not advocating the tactic, I’m responding to the misinterpretation of the preceding post.

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**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\
**Post date:** [June 2, 2025, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1006 "2025-06-02T17:47:50Z")

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> [@RickJay](#):
>
> Apparently, Russian logistics right now is at an absolute standstill because cargo is being panic-inspected everywhere. Freezing the country up like that could cost Russia as much as the loss of Tu-95s does.

Something I’m sure the planners of this attack were fully counting on.

Make them have to stop and check over every trailer, every rail boxcar, every barge… you clever, clever bastards. I raise my wodka to you.

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**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\
**Post date:** [June 2, 2025, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1007 "2025-06-02T19:06:09Z")

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> [@Cervaise](#):
>
> I think you’re misinterpreting the statement. The effectiveness of this “clean” military-only strike provides a _road map_ for using drones to indiscriminately attack civilian spaces; it is not an _example of_ such.

I could do the mature thing and acknowledge you’re likely correct. But in the current political climate I feel as though the best thing to do is go on the offensive to mask my own embarrassment. A pox upon your house! That’s the best I can do right now.

> [@RickJay](#):
>
> I admit I don’t really see why this is a big deal. I doubt Ukraine was in the habit of informing the USA of operations that didn’t involve some sort of agreement about the use of a weapon they’d been given.

While I would expect operational security, I suspect Ukraine was more likely to share information with the United States under the Biden administration. I suspect we also shared quite a bit of intelligence with Ukraine as well. I would have thought Zelensky would have given Biden a heads up about an attack deep in Russia. Maybe not the details, but just something to let a close ally be prepared.

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**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\
**Post date:** [June 2, 2025, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1008 "2025-06-02T23:06:46Z")

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> [@Cervaise](#):
>
> > [@Odesio](#):
> >
> > I’m a little confused by this statement. The way I see it, it cannot have been a very clean military strike _and_ an example of randomly killing civilians.
> 
> I think you’re misinterpreting the statement. The effectiveness of this “clean” military-only strike provides a _road map_ for using drones to indiscriminately attack civilian spaces; it is not an _example of_ such.

Exactly. It was a brilliant military action that was executed cleanly. But it provides a clear roadmap for terrorizing the enemy by murdering civilians where they had felt safe. And i suspect someone will do it in some war.

> [@Odesio](#):
>
> I would have thought Zelensky would have given Biden a heads up about an attack deep in Russia. Maybe not the details, but just something to let a close ally be prepared.

That certainly might have happened, under a different president. Zelensky would have to be crazy to risk leaking the details of this plan by telling Trump, though.

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**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\
**Post date:** [June 2, 2025, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1009 "2025-06-02T23:14:52Z")

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> [@puzzlegal](#):
>
> But it provides a clear roadmap for terrorizing the enemy by murdering civilians where they had felt safe. And i suspect someone will do it in some war.

I’m pretty sure terrorists were going to, and would, do such a thing regardless of whether Ukraine showed them the way as an example. They are ingenious enough to not need Ukraine demonstrating for them.

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**Author:** ![smithsb](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smithsb/32/12107_2.png) [@smithsb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smithsb)\
**Post date:** [June 2, 2025, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1010 "2025-06-02T23:15:10Z")

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They thought about it but the AI generated crayon drawings of drones, trucks, and bombers kept smearing.

/lame O/T humor off.

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**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\
**Post date:** [June 3, 2025, 1:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1011 "2025-06-03T01:22:19Z")

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> [@Odesio](#):
>
> I would have thought Zelensky would have given Biden a heads up about an attack deep in Russia.

If I was Zelensky, I would be very reluctant to share this, for fear (or, even with Biden, for near certainty) that the U.S. would insist I not go more than X kilometers into Russia, X being a way lower number than I needed. At most I might send out a message a minute or two before the explosives hit, just so I could later say we gave a little advance notification as a courtesy.

As for Trump, I guess the same would make sense.

As for the CIA/NSA, if someone there knew this was going down, and didn’t pass it up for fear of Trump giving the intel to Putin, I hope no one ever discovers that. If there can be such a thing as the PhillyGuy Medal of Freedom, I hereby award the first one to this anonymous hero.

P.S. Maybe I shouldn’t have posted the last paragraph. A Trumpist lurker may think I just confirmed there being a deep state. Of course, there is not. It is extremely unlikely that the proposed PhillyGuy Medal of Freedom winner actually exists.

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**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\
**Post date:** [June 3, 2025, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1012 "2025-06-03T01:34:21Z")

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> [@Odesio](#):
>
> I would have thought Zelensky would have given Biden a heads up about an attack deep in Russia. Maybe not the details, but just something to let a close ally be prepared.

Had he done so, the US intelligence and defense apparatus would have known about it, and Trump would have been told.

The central truth of keeping a secret is you only tell people who need to know. Even allies, even people in your own army, should not be told secrets unless they need to know. The USA didn’t need to know this.

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**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [June 3, 2025, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1013 "2025-06-03T01:41:22Z")

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> [@PhillyGuy](#):
>
> If I was Zelensky, I would be very reluctant to share this, for fear (or, even with Biden, for near certainty) that the U.S. would insist I not go more than X kilometers into Russia, X being a way lower number than I needed.

The US has (unwisely, I think) said this concerning the use of weapons that we provided to Ukraine. We’ve never said anything about how Ukraine can use weapons that they procure from other sources, or make themselves.

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**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\
**Post date:** [June 3, 2025, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1014 "2025-06-03T01:46:10Z")

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Agreed. Especially with that Neville Chamberlain Jake Sullivan, who did everything possible to make sure aid to Ukraine was a trickle and insufficient to achieve victory.

> [@Chronos](#):
>
> We’ve never said anything about how Ukraine can use weapons that they procure from other sources, or make themselves.

Yes, but it’s not at all a stretch to imagine Biden/Sullivan trying to use American clout to restrain and hamper even Ukrainian operations involving no American weapons at all. Something like, “You hit those Russian bombers with your own drones and we’ll give you no more AMRAAMs or HIMARS for the rest of the war.”

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**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\
**Post date:** [June 3, 2025, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1015 "2025-06-03T16:00:58Z")

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> [@RickJay](#):
>
> > [@Odesio](#):
> >
> > I would have thought Zelensky would have given Biden a heads up about an attack deep in Russia. Maybe not the details, but just something to let a close ally be prepared.
> 
> Had he done so, the US intelligence and defense apparatus would have known about it, and Trump would have been told.

I believe **Odesio** meant, ‘If the attack had been launched _when Biden was President_…’

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**Author:** ![Mollie\_Magill](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mollie_magill/32/20882_2.png) [@Mollie\_Magill](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mollie_Magill)\
**Post date:** [June 3, 2025, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1016 "2025-06-03T17:53:47Z")

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> [@Velocity](#):
>
> Especially with that Neville Chamberlain Jake Sullivan, who did everything possible to make sure aid to Ukraine was a trickle and insufficient to achieve victory.

Less Neville Chamberlin and more Edward VIII, I’d think.

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**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\
**Post date:** [June 3, 2025, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1017 "2025-06-03T23:14:39Z")

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And Alex Jones is crying foul over Ukraine’s drone attack against Russia. Apparently it was a NATO operation designed to thwart Trump’s peace efforts. He threw in something something about NATO starting the whole war to begin with and something about globalist as well. I think I just figured out where my MAGA mom got all her information about Ukraine and Russia.

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**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\
**Post date:** [June 9, 2025, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1018 "2025-06-09T20:00:34Z")

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Swedish AWACS helps a Ukrainian F-16 score an air-to-air kill against a Russian Su-35 by using the AWACS radar and enabling the Ukrainian Viper to remain nose-cold and thus datalinking it all the way to kill (maybe even datalinking the AMRAAM itself to kill, too?)

> **[Ukraine’s F-16 Reportedly Destroys Russian Su-35 in First Air Battle,...](https://united24media.com/latest-news/ukraines-f-16-destroys-russian-su-35-in-first-air-battle-backed-by-swedish-awacs-8983)**
>
> A Ukrainian F-16 fighter jet successfully shot down a Russian Su-35, marking a historic moment in military aviation over northeastern Ukraine.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Askance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askance/32/8281_2.png) [@Askance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askance)\
**Post date:** [June 10, 2025, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1019 "2025-06-10T00:57:54Z")

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For context, the F-16AM first came out in 1978, the Su-35 in 1988 (but we don’t have the exact version AFAICS, may be later).

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**Author:** ![Calder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e99b99/32.png) [@Calder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Calder)\
**Post date:** [June 10, 2025, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1020 "2025-06-10T18:43:20Z")

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Unless there have been very recent improvements to the AMRAMM most likely what happened is that the Swedish Saab 340 AEW&C allowed the F-16 to fly in low and with it’s radar turned off allowing it to get somewhat close to the SU-35 without being detected. Using the F-16 datalinks with the Saab 340 to allow it to fire the AMRAAM without activing either the AMRAAM or F-16 radar. Once the AMRAAM was at close range (about a mile or so) the missile turns on it fire control radar to allow it to intercept. (The type of radar used for detecting aircraft isn’t precise enough to allow a missile hit.)This gives the SU-35 very little time to react.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\
**Post date:** [June 10, 2025, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1021 "2025-06-10T19:29:28Z")

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> [@Calder](#):
>
> This gives the SU-35 very little time to react.

What? Do you want a fair fight? 🤡

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