# Russia invades Ukraine -- The regional situation **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [December 30, 2023, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349 "2023-12-30T18:43:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 59
**Author:** ![Johanna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johanna/32/8318_2.png) [@Johanna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johanna)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2025, 12:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1162 "2025-09-15T00:35:59Z")
I wasn’t thinking with John Cale “let’s go to Moscow,”\* I was only thinking of going to Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea. Chase the Russians out of Ukraine. _Find the back door to the Kremlin, Push it down and walk on in_ [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/nOj3ZXGSs4Q/hqdefault.jpg "John Cale - Mercenaries (Ready For War)") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOj3ZXGSs4Q) ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2025, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1163 "2025-09-15T00:36:01Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > I wa considering a scenario where they join up with Ukraine so that they only have to fight through the last 1/3 or so of the distance, with the first 2/3 being through Ukrainian held territory. Ukraine has been fought pretty much to a standstill, and while they’ve been pretty savvy about using drones and sabotage teams to attack within Russian territory they certainly don’t have the military logistics or airpower for an extended campaign into Russia. Ukraine has engaged in a couple of cycles of counteroffensives (Kharkiv and Kherson in 2022, primarily in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia in 2023), gaining back considerable territory in 2022 but not making a lot of headway in 2023. Even if Poland did joint Ukraine and pushed the Russians back to the 2013 borders, they’d still have the same problems getting _to_ Nizhny Novgorod and Moscow as Russia has had getting vehicles and supplies to Ukraine. And frankly, if you look at a map it doesn’t really give them all that much advantage in distance even as the crow flies, notwithstanding the logistical challenges of looping all the way through Ukraine and the actual routes they would have to take. Of course, the smart strategy in entering into an ongoing war is to open a second front to divert resources of the shared opponent, not to attack through the field that is already in battle. But again, Poland’s military is just not comprised for logistically extended action and certainly not to invade Russia. If it tried, that might benefit Ukraine because it would pull away resources and might even cause the Russian army to go into retreat in order to free up resources for defense, but Poland’s military would then be stretched and at the disadvantage. It should also be noted that while Poland participated in both the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan and contributes significantly to UN peacekeeping forces, they haven’t actually fought in a real battlefield conflict with a parity opponent since WWII. Russia’s military isn’t great but it has been learning hard-fought lessons from the ill-conceived adventure in Ukraine and has advanced their tactics beyond conventional land war texts. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2025, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1164 "2025-09-15T00:39:12Z")
> [@Johanna](#): > > I wasn’t thinking with John Cale “let’s go to Moscow,”\* I was only thinking of going to Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea. Chase the Russians out of Ukraine. I’m not clear on what that gets Poland, and apparently neither does Poland as their [“Ministry of Defense has firmly rejected the US proposal to send Polish troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping mission.”](https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/poland-firmly-responds-to-us-proposal-to-1747161055.html) Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2025, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1165 "2025-09-15T00:53:55Z")
If Poland joined armed hostilities I think Belarus come out the worst; Russia forces them in and then they get rolled. Also, Kaliningrad would be hard to defend. If Poland joined I think you’d have a lot more support from the rest of the EU, but I don’t see that happening. Maybe the EU intelligence services start whacking people involved with Russia operations on home soil, getting harder in the grey zone, but outright war? Don’t see it. Maybe Polish airforce extends their umbrella over western Ukraine. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2025, 1:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1166 "2025-09-15T01:04:38Z")
Russia’s Navel losses are substantial. One ship had only recently been retrofitted. Ukraine lost 100 ships in 2014 after Russia captured the base at Sevastopol Bay. But Russia navel losses are more embarrassing for a country trying to claim a position as a World power. > **[List of ship losses during the Russo-Ukrainian War](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ship_losses_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War)** > > This is a list of vessels damaged, sunk, or captured during the Russo-Ukrainian War, including the 2014 annexation of Crimea, the 2018 Kerch Strait incident, and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. > On 9 September 2022, the engine of the Romanian Navy minesweeper Lieutenant Dimitrie Nicolescu was damaged by the explosion at the waterline of a floating sea mine, 40 km off Constanța. There were no casualties. ---
**Author:** ![Johanna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johanna/32/8318_2.png) [@Johanna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johanna)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2025, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1167 "2025-09-15T01:38:21Z")
That was before Russia sent drones to attack deep into Poland. Now the Poles are invoking NATO article 4. Romania also got Russian drones intruding. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2025, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1168 "2025-09-15T01:53:45Z")
> [@Johanna](#): > > That was before Russia sent drones to attack deep into Poland. The Poles are looking into other options now and talking with Romania. Romania is a NATO member nation (which has also just today experienced an incursion of Russian drones into its airspace) with which Poland routinely coordinates with and under a NATO Article 5 declaration is obliged to provide support. I have not seen any reporting that Poland is considering sending military units to Ukraine, and in fact Karol Nawrocki, the current President of Poland, who was elected earlier this year under a rightward shift with support from the populist “Law and Justice” party, has expressed both a desire to review materiel and support to Ukraine as well as inflaming cultural grievances with Ukraine. So, I find the suggestion that Poland is going to send troops or air defense resources to aid Ukraine versus stationing them on their own eastern front to be unlikely. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2025, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1169 "2025-09-15T13:42:47Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > Russia’s Navel losses are substantial. Why did the POW refuse to take off his shirt? He didn’t want his captors to discover his navel base. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2025, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1170 "2025-09-15T15:15:23Z")
I goofed on spellong naval. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2025, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1171 "2025-09-15T15:15:48Z")
Yep.   ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2025, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1172 "2025-09-15T18:22:19Z")
I sure wish this would happen, but I’ve been disappointed too many times. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2025, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1173 "2025-09-16T18:29:54Z")
[https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/09/16/frontline-report-russias-pokrovsk-offensive-collapses-into-chaos-ukrainian-forces-seize-the-moment-and-liberate-udachne/](https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/09/16/frontline-report-russias-pokrovsk-offensive-collapses-into-chaos-ukrainian-forces-seize-the-moment-and-liberate-udachne/) Russian offensive collapses, Ukraine takes advantage and liberates Udachne. ---
**Author:** ![Calder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e99b99/32.png) [@Calder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Calder)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2025, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1174 "2025-09-16T18:51:23Z")
> So keep the slow-motion meatgrinder going, and hope his ~~pal~~ planted agent trump delivers him Ukraine on, if not a silver platter, at least a rusty hubcap. So far he’s winning this slow-motion arm wrestle. A pyrrhic victory to be sure, but he is winning. I think it will be useful to post this graphic. I will also note that this graphic is significantly understating how well Ukraine has done, as it doesn’t include the Kharkiv region just north of this map, where the Kharkiv counteroffensive in late 2022 occurred. In other words, Ukraine has liberated more territory since August of 2022 than Russia has taken in the rest of the war combined. ie the Kharkiv and Kherson offensives liberated more territory than all of Russia’s attacks since then. I don’t think it is possible to argue that Russia is winning the war at this point. I will grant that Putin may THINK he is winning the war as he invites guests for an interesting view out of tall windows if they give him even mildly bad news. I have no doubt he is stuck in an echo chamber of his own beliefs. Well, shoot, the straight dope apparently doesn’t allow media images to be posted. I have a graphic showing the % of Ukrainian territory conquered by year. But can’t post it. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2025, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1175 "2025-09-16T19:32:35Z")
> [@Calder](#): > > Well, shoot, the straight dope apparently doesn’t allow media images to be posted. I have a graphic showing the % of Ukrainian territory conquered by year. But can’t post it. Is this it? [![](https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/INTERACTIVE-Russias-war-on-Ukraine-AUG-12-2025-copy-1755156382.png) ](https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/INTERACTIVE-Russias-war-on-Ukraine-AUG-12-2025-copy-1755156382.png) ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2025, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1176 "2025-09-16T19:49:11Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Russian offensive collapses, Ukraine takes advantage and liberates Udachne. That’s REALLY good news. Hope we see additional similar stories in days to come. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2025, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1177 "2025-09-17T00:30:50Z")
For sure very good news. We’ve speculated before about tipping points and Russian military collapse. Could this be the beginning? ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2025, 6:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1178 "2025-09-17T06:03:46Z")
Another Russian arms client is ditching Russian jets and buying American now. > **[F-16 Cleared To Be Peru’s Next Fighter](https://www.twz.com/air/f-16-cleared-to-be-perus-next-fighter)** > > Washington has approved a potential F-16 to Peru, a country struggling with an aging fleet of Russian- and European-made fighters. Washington has approved a potential F-16 to Peru, a country struggling with an aging fleet of Russian- and... ---
**Author:** ![Calder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e99b99/32.png) [@Calder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Calder)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2025, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1179 "2025-09-17T17:45:55Z")
No it is a more detailed map showing the territories of Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson and the % conquered for each region. It was from August of each year. How did you post your image? After uploading the image into my post when I click the reply message I get an error saying I can’t post media images. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2025, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1180 "2025-09-17T17:54:52Z")
You can’t post images directly, but if you put the url of the the image discord will display it. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2025, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1181 "2025-09-17T18:59:50Z")
Discourse, not Discord. But otherwise yeah. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=58) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=60)