# Russia invades Ukraine -- The regional situation **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [December 30, 2023, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349 "2023-12-30T18:43:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 63
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2025, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1243 "2025-09-22T20:05:27Z")
> [@Dahu](#): > > This is what I don’t really understand. Why would Putin _want_ to start proper armed hostilities against NATO? He’s not exactly been smashing it in Ukraine in the last 3 years The only thing that seems to make sense is that he might think that if Poland, Germany, Estonia, etc. “start it” that maybe it would somehow lead to Trump deciding to leave NATO on the grounds of “those people in Europe want war instead of peace, while we want peace rather than war, so we aren’t going to stand with them”. The US officially leaving NATO would of course be a huge win for Putin. ---
**Author:** ![Xocomil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xocomil/32/14927_2.png) [@Xocomil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Xocomil)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2025, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1244 "2025-09-22T22:18:39Z")
The Russians might be trying to provoke a unilateral attack. If the provocation is insufficiently serious to merit an Article 5 response, perhaps Poland or one of the Baltic states might nevertheless be goaded into aggression and NATO might say, “you started it, you finish it.” ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2025, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1245 "2025-09-22T22:20:13Z")
But why? what does Russia stand to gain with the opening of a second front?, they could surely curb-stomp any baltic state, but Poland is another story. ---
**Author:** ![ParallelLines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/parallellines/32/3575_2.png) [@ParallelLines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParallelLines)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2025, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1246 "2025-09-22T22:24:34Z")
Strictly a personal read, but I think Putin is doing it to look Strong despite a now years-old war against what he obviously considered a non-peer power. That he can, in a sense, project power (“I’m not touching you, neener neener”) but expecting (correctly I assume) that NATO isn’t going to escalate over the issue. So he gets to flaunt his “strength” internationally for extremely low cost, and get away with it, which is, indeed a plausible ploy. And if NATO responds more strongly than he expects, well, then I bet 100 quatloos that the _immediate_ Nuclear Sabre Rattling will be turned up to 11. That’s always been and will likely be his ace-in-the-hole. ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2025, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1247 "2025-09-22T23:32:28Z")
> [@Pardel-Lux](#): > > That way lies uncontrollable escalation. Here is a comment piece from the Handelsblatt (something like Germany’s leading economic newspaper): Thank you for this contribution, PM Chamberlain. “Of course you have the ~~Sudetenland~~ Baltic States, ~~Fuhrer~~ President Putin, as long as you pinkie swear to not go ANY further.” Putin responds to force and force only. Shoot 'em down and he’ll stop this bullshit. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2025, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1248 "2025-09-22T23:35:33Z")
Even if Trump wanted to, he couldn’t. Legislation was passed in 2023 prohibiting any US president from withdrawing the US from NATO without 2/3 Senate approval. > **[Congress approves bill barring presidents from unilaterally exiting NATO |...](https://www.kaine.senate.gov/in-the-news/congress-approves-bill-barring-presidents-from-unilaterally-exiting-nato)** > > Congress this week approved a measure aimed at preventing any U.S. president from unilaterally withdrawing the United States from NATO without... ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2025, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1249 "2025-09-23T00:37:50Z")
As CinC, Trump could just not abide by the Articles. ---
**Author:** ![Xocomil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xocomil/32/14927_2.png) [@Xocomil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Xocomil)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2025, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1250 "2025-09-23T01:14:30Z")
Yep. What’s NATO gonna do if Trump refuses to join the fight? Kick the U.S. out of NATO? He’d hate that, wouldn’t he? What’s Congress gonna do? Impeach him? ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2025, 1:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1251 "2025-09-23T01:20:49Z")
Trump could very well throw us on the side of Russia in a NATO/Russia conflict. Who is going to stop him? Hakeem Jeffries? JD Vance? ---
**Author:** ![Jeff\_Lichtman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jeff_lichtman/32/1531_2.png) [@Jeff\_Lichtman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jeff_Lichtman)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2025, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1252 "2025-09-23T01:37:35Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > cf: World War One, the collapse of the Soviet Union. I assume you mean the collapse of the Russian Monarchy. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2025, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1253 "2025-09-23T02:05:58Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Even if Trump wanted to, he couldn’t. Legislation was passed in 2023 prohibiting any US president from withdrawing the US from NATO without 2/3 Senate approval. Such a bill is nonsensical. Even if it requires 2/3 Senate approval to withdraw under the terms of that bill, it still requires only a simple majority to repeal that bill, same as any other. That German spokesman is correct that we must not allow Russia to provoke us, but he’s completely wrong on what that means. By allowing Russian jets into NATO airspace, we are allowing Russia to provoke us. The way to prevent Russia from provoking NATO is to destroy the provoking assets. Yes, this action is risky, given that Russia has nukes. All actions are risky, given that Russia has nukes, and I don’t think there’s any alternative that’s any less risky. ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2025, 8:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1254 "2025-09-23T08:24:42Z")
You might like this Bismarck Cable better: > **[Transponders Off, Message On: Russia’s Deliberate Challenge to NATO](https://thebismarckcables.substack.com/p/transponders-off-message-on-russias?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=220648&post_id=174118207&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=203721&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email)** > > Supported by our friends at Chart API: banks, lenders, fintechs, wealth & tax advisors, and background checking companies use Chart’s real-time API to retrieve customer tax records in seconds: all done in real-time online and with full customer... It is very reassuring that someone misunderstanding me on purpose (because you are usually not stupid, therefore it must have been on purpose, right?) and advocating manly mindless recklessness is not in a position to influence military decisions. Anyway: what people who know what they are talking about recommend is to warn Russia openly and publicly that the planes will be shot down next time (as Turkey did: their air space had been violated five times before they shot the plane down) and then do it. And then there is sabotage: rail transport is severely disturbed in northern Germany and air traffic is still doing manual check-ins in Berlin, Heathrow and Brussels, both because of sorftware problems Russia (cough, cough!) has absolutely nothing to do with. And in breaking news drones have paralized Scandinavian airports: > **[Danish PM links drone sightings that closed Copenhagen and Oslo airports with...](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/sep/23/copenhagen-oslo-airport-drones-denmark-norway-russia-nato-estonia-europe-live-latest-news-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-68d24c1d8f080fb4fddc3bfd#block-68d24c1d8f080fb4fddc3bfd)** > > Copenhagen airport closed for four hours after large drones seen in vicinity, while Oslo airport closed for three hours following two sightings ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2025, 10:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1255 "2025-09-23T10:21:31Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Such a bill is nonsensical. Even if it requires 2/3 Senate approval to withdraw under the terms of that bill, it still requires only a simple majority to repeal that bill, same as any other. It requires a simple majority in both Houses of Congress, whereas the law requires a 2/3s majority in only one House. And Trump is really bad about waiting for or getting Congress to act; he just goes ahead and does things and then the courts find his actions illegal. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2025, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1256 "2025-09-24T13:53:04Z")
[Trump Says NATO Should Down Russian Jets Breaching Airspace](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/trump-says-nato-should-down-russian-jets-breaching-airspace/ar-AA1N9Gzv) > “Yes, I do,” Trump said when asked directly by a reporter if NATO allies should take down Russian aircraft during his meeting on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Tuesday. But… > On Tuesday, Trump declined to say whether the US would support NATO if it engaged Russian planes over its airspace, saying it “depends on the circumstance” but that “we’re very strong toward NATO.” I believe that countries have the right to protect their borders. If a potential invader breaches those borders, then countries have every right to attack the invaders. Estonia has told Russia not to violate their airspace. If Russia does it again, Estonia should intercept them and light them up with their targeting systems and then ‘escort them out’. When I was a kid and I misbehaved, my dad would say, ‘One.’ If I kept up my behaviour, he would say, ‘Two.’ I’d been warned that I’d be spanked if he counted to three. I was actually smart enough to behave, and he never got to ‘Three.’ Russia has shot down civilian airliners. They can’t believably be offended if they invade another country and their aircraft are shot down. As others have posted, it’s like letting the nose of a camel into your tent. Russia needs a poke in the snot locker. And… > But in his social media post, he criticized Russia for “fighting aimlessly for three and a half years a War that should have taken a Real Military Power less than a week to win,” adding it made the country look like “a paper tiger.” Typical bully behaviour. Be a bully until you meet a bigger bully, and team up with him. If the bigger bully turns out to be weak, turn on the bigger bully. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2025, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1257 "2025-09-24T15:07:32Z")
> [@Johnny\_L.A](#): > > Estonia should intercept them and light them up with their targeting systems and then ‘escort them out’. I don’t necessarily disagree in theory, but it’s a little tricky. First because Estonia itself lacks that specific capability. They do have an air force, but no actual combat aircraft and only short-range surface-to-air missiles. This is common to all the Baltic states. “Air defense” for all three is provided by a small [rotating NATO patrol that acts as a tripwire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Air_Policing). Per that wiki currently Hungary and Spain are in rotation. So NATO collectively sorta has to make that call which I imagine adds a bureaucratic tail and added political gravitas to any decision as instead of a country defending its borders, Russia will shriek disingenuously about NATO aggression. The second problem is more practical and less political. Estonia is pretty tiny - quite a bit smaller than West Virginia. It might not be practically possible to illuminate and escort. Russian aircraft can be in and out of the borders of Estonian airspace in a flash. A patrol would have to be very lucky to be in position to do so even for seconds and if Russia is halfway competent in how they go about being provocative (a big if) they can time these little incursions so that it is not likely to happen. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2025, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1258 "2025-09-24T15:17:05Z")
These are great statements by Trump, but, alas, the guy changes his mind every 48 hours, so it likely means no change in approach/policy at all. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2025, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1259 "2025-09-24T19:42:48Z")
Spain and Hungary are providing NATO air patrols. It’s probably not a coincidence that Spain was targeted. > **[Spanish military plane hit by GPS 'disturbance' over Russian enclave](https://www.euronews.com/2025/09/24/spanish-defence-ministers-plane-hit-by-gps-disturbance-near-russian-enclave)** > > Spain's Defence Minister Margarita Robles was on the military jet, which reported GPS interference while flying over the Russian Kaliningrad enclave. ---
**Author:** ![DWMarch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dwmarch/32/1010_2.png) [@DWMarch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DWMarch)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2025, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1260 "2025-09-24T20:26:48Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > These are great statements by Trump, but, alas, the guy changes his mind every 48 hours, so it likely means no change in approach/policy at all. The one thing that gives me hope is thinking back to how Trump used to be all buddy-buddy with Justin Trudeau until Trudeau was caught on a hot mic talking shit about Trump. After that happened, Trump hated Trudeau and never forgave him. And we know from Trump’s comments at Charlie Kirk’s funeral that Trump _enjoys_ hate. He holds grudges, never forgives and (notwithstanding his dementia) never forgets. Along similar lines, we can hope that someone somewhere has presented Trump with evidence that Putin does not think highly of him. It is even vaguely possible that Trump has figured out on his own that Putin lies to him all the time. Whatever the case may be, I feel like Trump has soured on Putin and has figured out that “cyka” is not a term of endearment. Now does Putin have some dirty files on Trump? Who cares? Trump has survived the Epstein scandal relatively unscathed, no one is going to make a fuss about additional underage victims in Moscow. Trump will just call it fake news and instruct the media not to talk about it. And if they do talk about it, he’ll torpedo their mergers and blacklist their popular hosts. ---
**Author:** ![Jeff\_Lichtman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jeff_lichtman/32/1531_2.png) [@Jeff\_Lichtman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jeff_Lichtman)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2025, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1261 "2025-09-24T20:59:48Z")
Trump changed his position on the Ukraine war after a private meeting with Zelensky. I expect him to change back the next time he has a meeting with Putin. In any case, I don’t think it makes much difference which side he’s on. Even if he continues to support Ukraine, he won’t do anything about it. Most world leaders have figured out that they can’t count on Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2025, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1262 "2025-09-24T21:30:19Z")
> [@Jeff\_Lichtman](#): > > Trump changed his position on the Ukraine war after a private meeting with Zelensky The Russians are well aware. From one of Russia’s state newspaper, Izvestiya, the day after Trump’s UN speech: “It’s important to remember that Trump is influenced by the last person he has spoken to. In this case it was Zelensky.” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=62) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=64)