# Russia invades Ukraine -- The regional situation **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [December 30, 2023, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349 "2023-12-30T18:43:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 64
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2025, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1263 "2025-09-24T22:25:12Z")
ABC News ran some short clips of Zelensky. He looked totally exhausted. The war has taken a lot out of him. He’s stuck for now. It would be hard holding an election that wouldn’t get manipulated by Putin. Remember this fresh faced guy from 2020? [![](https://images.wsj.net/im-481613/8SR) ](https://images.wsj.net/im-481613/8SR) ---
**Author:** ![Xocomil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xocomil/32/14927_2.png) [@Xocomil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Xocomil)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2025, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1264 "2025-09-28T01:14:49Z")
Poland is indeed a very different story. The Baltic states, on the other hand, are ripe for the taking. If Russia takes all three, they put themselves out of NATO artillery range except in Finland and Ukraine. Only a single road and rail link connects the European mainland to Scandinavia. They also extend the reach of their air defenses. It very much complicates things for NATO militarily and gives Russia quite the leverage in peace negotiations. I just cannot imagine their military actually being capable of it. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2025, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1265 "2025-09-28T02:47:54Z")
> [@Xocomil](#): > > Poland is indeed a very different story. The Baltic states, on the other hand, are ripe for the taking. If Russia takes all three, they put themselves out of NATO artillery range except in Finland and Ukraine. And Poland itself, whose front would actually be widened by the addition of some Lithuanian frontage to the pre-existing Kaliningrad frontage. I agree that the geography per se would shorten and simplify their defense, though (if you don’t count possible political impacts.) ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2025, 3:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1266 "2025-09-28T03:38:24Z")
I imagine if Russia took the Baltics, it would be a fait accompli (them being far weaker than Ukraine) and then Russia would promptly declare them to be sovereign Russian soil itself, and declare that any NATO attempt to re-take them would be tantamount to an invasion of Russia proper and risk nuclear retaliation. Then it becomes a matter of whether NATO is willing to take the risk to re-take them or will just say “Oh well, Russia gets to have those 3 small NATO states but we won’t let them take a bigger NATO state like Poland.” It’s questionable whether the alliance could even survive at all as a defense agreement any longer if it caved in and chose not to re-take the Baltics. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2025, 5:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1267 "2025-09-28T05:47:23Z")
If NATO put up even a smidgen of defense, I doubt Russia could even take the Baltics. AIUI, they’ve been stripping pretty much all units of men and equipment to fight in Ukraine, so they don’t have enough full strength units to do the job. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2025, 7:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1268 "2025-09-28T07:24:39Z")
Exactly. Invading the Baltics means coming out of their trenches and foxholes, and the moment Russians forces come out in the open they’ll be shredded by NATO air power. If NATO chooses to fight, of course. ---
**Author:** ![smithsb](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smithsb/32/12107_2.png) [@smithsb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smithsb)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2025, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1269 "2025-09-29T00:11:34Z")
When? 24 hrs., 2 weeks, 50 days? > **[Trump to make 'final determination' on supplying Ukraine with Tomahawk...](https://kyivindependent.com/trump-to-make-final-determination-on-supplying-ukraine-with-tomahawk-missiles-as-russia-refuses-peace-talks-vance-says/)** > > U.S. Vice President JD Vance confirmed on Sept. 28 that the U.S. is "looking at" providing Kyiv with Tomahawk missiles, as Moscow continues to refuse bilateral and trilateral peace talks brokered by President Donald Trump. Some good news > **[Israel delivered Patriot defence system to Ukraine, Zelensky confirms ｜ DPA](https://nordot.app/1344701213942530094)** > > Israel has delivered a Patriot air defence system to Ukraine, which has been operational for the past month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Saturday. Speaking at a press conference, Zelensky added that he expects two more systems to... Also good news: Moldova’s pro-Western Party has won the election today, gaining at least 49% of the high vote. > **[Pro-EU party in Moldova wins election mired in claims of Russian interference](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2rdlj8ejgo)** > > The vote was seen as critical for Moldova's EU path, and President Maia Sandu warned the country's future was in danger. ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2025, 10:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1270 "2025-09-29T10:25:44Z")
On the other hand, tensions in Estonia: > **[‘A big chance for the populists’: Estonian city alert to the threat of Moscow...](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/sep/27/estonia-city-mayoral-election-moscow-threat?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other)** > > Positioned on the border and with a 98% Russian-speaking population, Narva faces a test of its unity and resilience ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2025, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1271 "2025-09-30T21:54:05Z")
Putin wanted to defang Ukraine and weaken the West. Instead Ukraine is now helping NATO to become stronger. > **[Putin’s dream of demilitarizing Ukraine has turned into his worst nightmare](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putins-dream-of-demilitarizing-ukraine-has-turned-into-his-worst-nightmare/)** > > Putin had hoped to demilitarize and decapitate the Ukrainian state, but his self-defeating invasion has inadvertently created the militarily powerful and fiercely independent Ukraine he feared most of all, writes Peter Dickinson. > Ukraine’s burgeoning reputation as a key player in the field of drone warfare reflects the dramatic shifts currently taking place in Europe’s security architecture. Until quite recently, Ukraine was treated as a military minnow struggling to adopt NATO standards. Strikingly, it is now NATO that is seeking to adopt Ukrainian standards. > > The emergence of Ukraine as a drone superpower is only one aspect of the country’s remarkable recent transformation into a major military force. The Ukrainian army is also at the cutting edge of innovation in defense tech sectors including electronic warfare, robotic systems, and cyber security. It came as no surprise that the recent [Defense Tech Valley](https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-secures-over-100-million-in-defense-tech-investment-at-lviv-forum-ministry-says/) industry showcase event in western Ukraine attracted at least 5000 participants from over 50 countries, with Western companies pledging more than $100 million in investments. > > The technological progress made by the Ukrainian Armed Forces since 2022 is certainly eye-catching, but the country’s human capital remains its greatest asset. Today’s Ukraine boasts Europe’s second-largest army, with almost one million men and women currently in uniform and a large reserve of battle-hardened combat veterans. This dwarfs anything else on the continent, even before Ukraine’s unrivaled experience of modern warfare is taken into account. With the United States seeking to reduce its role in European security, the Ukrainian military is now the biggest single barrier between an expansionist Russia and an unprepared Europe. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2025, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1272 "2025-09-30T22:07:38Z")
And the United States had better follow Ukraine’s footsteps rapidly. As websites like TheWarZone have constantly pointed out, the USA is lagging alarmingly behind in both 1) the production of small drones and 2) defense against small drones. It feels like the U.S. won’t make the changes until one day it gets a really unpleasant surprise on the battlefield. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2025, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1273 "2025-09-30T22:19:35Z")
But first we need an administration that wants the US to survive, not become a Russian vassal. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2025, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1274 "2025-09-30T22:45:45Z")
If Ukraine is now “Europe’s second-largest army”, who’s the largest? And how do they “dwarf anything else on the continent”, given whoever the largest is? ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2025, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1275 "2025-09-30T22:55:10Z")
I assume that they’re counting Russia as part of Europe. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2025, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1276 "2025-09-30T22:57:24Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > If Ukraine is now “Europe’s second-largest army”, who’s the largest? [![](https://i.ibb.co/ym13xdYW/Europes-Biggest-Armies-WEB.jpg) ](https://i.ibb.co/ym13xdYW/Europes-Biggest-Armies-WEB.jpg) ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2025, 11:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1277 "2025-09-30T23:57:16Z")
WTF Germany??? The attack on the gas line was an act of war. The pipeline could have funneled billions into Russia’s war machine. Poland needs to refuse any extradition requests from Germany or at least let this man return to Ukraine. [Angela Merkle was a supporter of NORD Stream II.](https://www.thetimes.com/world/europe/article/angela-merkel-german-reliance-on-russian-gas-was-necessity-bw3kvj7mg) Merkle’s Russian policies and the Minsk agreements have often been criticized. Link > **[Angela Merkel exclusive: Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and me](https://www.thetimes.com/world/europe/article/angela-merkel-interview-childhood-trump-kfg8rb6zb)** > > In a rare interview, the former German chancellor tells Decca Aitkenhead how her ‘certain ambition for power’ kept her in the top job for 16 years > **[Germany seeks to extradite Ukrainian over 2022 Nord Stream gas pipeline attack](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/sep/30/ukrainian-detained-in-poland-over-2022-nord-stream-gas-pipeline-explosions)** > > Man held in Poland on suspicion of causing explosions that damaged undersea pipelines between Russia and Germany > [@](#): > > He said he was ready to argue on his client’s behalf that no Ukrainian could rightfully be held criminally responsible for attacks on the pipelines, since the proceeds from gas sent through Nord Stream 2 were intended to help finance Moscow’s war effort, as those from Nord Stream 1 had been for years. > > Nord Stream 2 never went into operation. It had been built to carry Russian gas beneath the Baltic Sea to Europe, but Germany halted its certification process in February 2022 [over Moscow’s recognition of the self-proclaimed republics in eastern Ukraine](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/22/germany-halts-nord-stream-2-approval-over-russian-recognition-of-ukraine-republics) before its invasion. It has remained out of use. > > The Russian government said it can be repaired, even as Germany has ruled out bringing it into operation. > > The Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, said on Tuesday that Russia hoped Germany would complete its investigation into the explosions, for which, he said, Moscow blamed Kyiv. > > Initially, many assumed Russia was behind the attack. But German investigators have since identified a Ukrainian group of five men and a woman who they believe were responsible. > [@](#): > > Angela Merkel has defended her decisions as chancellor to allow Germany to become heavily reliant on Russian pipeline gas, arguing that the alternatives were too costly or politically impossible. > > By the outbreak of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Germany was buying 55 per cent of its gas from Moscow and President Putin tried to use this dependency to bully Berlin into scaling back its support for Kyiv. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2025, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1278 "2025-10-08T19:38:23Z")
Another very interesting analysis by Anders Puck Nielson. He says Ukraine is making 50 of its new Flamingo missiles per month so should have a stockpile of around 200, with production expected to be ramped up to 200 per month in January. So why haven’t they been using them? Answer: he believes the Ukrainians are moving into a confident position of deterrence. Zelensky has already said that if Russia targets domestic infrastructure Ukraine willstrike back in kind, and it happens the following day where Russia struck a power plant so Ukraine for the first time struck a a Russian power plant in Belgorod. He says this signals that Ukraine is moving itself into a new era of the war though he doesn’t think Ukraine has enough missiles this winter to deter Putin from aiming for these sorts of targets. But he does say that if Ukraine does start causing energy blackouts and other problems in Russian cities, their population may not be as ready to accept it as the Ukrainians. [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/CxUC2HXvO84/maxresdefault.jpg "What is Ukraine saving its missiles for?") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CxUC2HXvO84) ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2025, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1279 "2025-10-08T19:55:53Z")
The main thing that worries me about the Flamingos is that it would be very easy for Russia to disrupt the supply chain needed to manufacture the missiles. This makes the possible transfer of American Tomahawks to Ukraine all the more vital, since Russia can’t stop Tomahawk production. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2025, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1280 "2025-10-08T19:56:05Z")
On r/ukraine they think it’s also that the Flamingo is way more vulnerable than the average new missile, so they will probably wait until they can launch a massive simultaneous attach to overwhelm defenses. The Wikipedia page and r/ukraine both also say that that would consist of “combined strikes by multiple weapons types” , i.e. also send in the drones at the same time to add to the strike, but I would think that just sending lots of Flamingos at once would probably do decently as well. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2025, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1281 "2025-10-08T23:01:54Z")
A bunch of cheap drones to saturate Russian air defense in advance of the Flamingos would make a good deal of sense. The Flamingos have a much larger warhead, and so if you can get a few extra through at the expense of some flying lawnmowers being shot down it’s well worth the effort. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2025, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1282 "2025-10-09T02:43:53Z")
> [@Gorsnak](#): > > flying lawnmowers I got that reference! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=63) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=65)