# Russia invades Ukraine -- The regional situation **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [December 30, 2023, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349 "2023-12-30T18:43:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 81
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2026, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1603 "2026-02-17T18:37:08Z")
> [@Gorsnak](#): > > Bold of you to assume that the Russian army isn’t just using Bao Feng 2-way radios at this point. [It’s a shame Radio Shack went out of business.](https://n1ugk.com/2023/04/archer-space-patrol-walkie-talkies/) ---
**Author:** ![Calder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e99b99/32.png) [@Calder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Calder)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2026, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1604 "2026-02-19T21:36:38Z")
> [@Gorsnak](#): > > > [@Cervaise](#): > > > > However, they are consumer apps, to be installed on consumer devices — which are generally less secure than hardened military devices. > > Bold of you to assume that the Russian army isn’t just using Bao Feng 2-way radios at this point. Not really. When there are literally hundreds of telegram posts of Russia army personal begging for replacements for Starlink. It isn’t a stretch to imagine that they are critically short of communication equipment because corruption stole it all again. Besides there are already reports that Ukraine has recaptured more than 250 square kilometers of territory in the last couple of days due to Russian communication problems as well as other Russian issues. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2026, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1605 "2026-02-19T21:46:32Z")
There are unverified reports that a Flying Tigers bunch of foreign non-Ukrainian pilots are flying F-16s in Ukraine. > **[U.S. and Dutch Pilots Allegedly Flying Ukrainian F-16s in Combat, Sources Say](https://theaviationist.com/2026/02/17/us-and-dutch-pilots-allegedly-flying-ukrainian-f-16s/)** > > Newly emerged reports claim a mixed squadron with Ukrainian, U.S. and Dutch pilots is flying combat missions on Ukrainian F-16s. New reports which are ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2026, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1606 "2026-02-19T22:05:43Z")
To clarify slightly, the alleged non-Ukrainians are supposedly working as mercenaries. They are said to not be current regular members of other NATO air forces. Interesting if true. And makes for some murky legalities. Especially if one of the mercs gets shot down over Russian-held territory. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2026, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1607 "2026-02-19T22:13:21Z")
You misunderstand me. I was suggesting that the Russians are quite possibly already using cheap consumer-grade 2-way radios, from which cellphones running Signal or Telegram would be a step up. ---
**Author:** ![Calder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e99b99/32.png) [@Calder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Calder)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2026, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1608 "2026-02-20T00:05:35Z")
The problem is those are not very helpful solutions. Using a radio to tell someone where to attack a newly discovered enemy position is hard. Sending a picture or video with an arrow is so much more effective. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2026, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1609 "2026-02-20T00:16:22Z")
So how do military coms work in (modern, competently-led, well-equipped) militaries? Do they actually have secure cell/satellite phones, with Signal-like apps installed on them? ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2026, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1610 "2026-02-20T00:43:56Z")
[Link 16 - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Link_16) would be a good page to start. Also [Blue force tracking - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_force_tracking). ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2026, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1611 "2026-02-22T02:03:28Z")
Long article. It’s well researched and written. Zelenskyy didn’t take the intelligence warnings aeriously until it was too late. > **[A war foretold: how the CIA and MI6 got hold of Putin’s Ukraine plans and why...](https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2026/feb/20/a-war-foretold-cia-mi6-putin-ukraine-plans-russia)** > > Drawing on more than 100 interviews with senior intelligence officials and other insiders in multiple countries, this exclusive account details how the US and Britain uncovered Vladimir Putin’s plans to invade, and why most of Europe – including the... ---
**Author:** ![ParallelLines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/parallellines/32/3575_2.png) [@ParallelLines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParallelLines)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2026, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1612 "2026-02-22T02:55:51Z")
For the record, I don’t think _anyone_ took the warnings seriously, because the past Putin efforts of posture, demand, threaten, possible concessions and then repeat were so _typical_ at the time. Based on past evidence, it seemed far more likely and, in hindsight, if he _had_ just fully recognized the breakaway provinces pushed his military to them, and just dared the west to do anything it would have _worked_ IMHO. He thought he could instead get the whole ball of wax, got closer to succeeding that anyone wants to think about, and it’s almost entirely due to pre-intervention Ukraine grit and willingness to fight hard that he _still_ didn’t succeed. Granted, western grants of funding and equipment have been huge in keeping that going, but while I feel that no matter how well written, it’s 20/20 hindsight to say “this time it’s going to be different”. Or, to be _more_ critical, Zelenskyy was in a terrible situation if British and American intelligence proved correct with very few options to improve the situation (not none, granted), and may well have engaged in some hopeful/wishful thinking. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2026, 8:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1613 "2026-02-22T08:57:44Z")
Be that as it may, Putin’s buildup of forces along the Ukrainian border in January 2022 was, IIRC, much bigger and more substantial than anything he’d ever done previously in terms of buildup or threats. It also included things with a short shelf life, like blood for wounded troops. There was good reason to believe this was a serious threat in a way that no prior bluffs were. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2026, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1614 "2026-02-22T22:49:13Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > Zelenskyy didn’t take the intelligence warnings aeriously until it was too late. > > [A war foretold: how the CIA and MI6 got hold of Putin’s Ukraine plans and why nobody believed them | Ukraine | The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2026/feb/20/a-war-foretold-cia-mi6-putin-ukraine-plans-russia) Except that it wasn’t too late. Zelenskyy did, in fact, stop the Russian advance. ---
**Author:** ![Calder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e99b99/32.png) [@Calder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Calder)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2026, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1615 "2026-02-23T19:47:26Z")
Pretty much everything in that article is correct. I think we can recognize that no leader is perfect and everybody makes mistakes. Just because Zelenskyy made mistakes before the invasion doesn’t lessen how great of a war time leader he has been. I don’t think Ukraine survives without his courageous stand in the capital and the whole, “Mr. President, I need ammunition not a ride”. One key piece of information that the article missed was the role of military hospitals in the build up. It wasn’t just the size of the April 2021 exercises and military buildup that alarmed Washington and London. It was the fact that they included military hospitals. (Doctors are in very short supply in Russia so they a normally not included in exercises.) As I understand it one of the things that convinced the CIA that the February 2022 invasion wasn’t a feint was not only were there many more military hospitals than the April exercises but that huge amounts of whole blood and been included during this exercise. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2026, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1616 "2026-02-23T19:57:55Z")
Really, this whole war has basically been a screw-up by all 4 parties involved. It’s just that the Ukrainians screwed up the least. Russia = massive overconfidence, hubris, lack of preparation, cluster-fucked up early in the war Ukraine = failed to take warnings seriously, but then recovered very ably and capably once the invasion started. USA = gave decent support during Biden years (although still not enough,) then went full vatnik-Trump once Trump was reelected, and not only gives no support now but even is outright pro-Putin Europe = despite a GDP vastly larger than Russia’s, and given 4 years to get its act together, still gives insufficient aid to Ukraine, and still bickers among itself. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2026, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1617 "2026-02-23T21:17:16Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > USA = gave decent support during Biden years (although still not enough,) then went full vatnik-Trump once Trump was reelected, and not only gives no support now but even is outright pro-Putin > **[Here’s How Much Aid the United States Has Sent Ukraine | Council on Foreign...](https://www.cfr.org/articles/how-much-us-aid-going-ukraine)** > > Ten charts illustrate the extraordinary level of support the United States has provided Ukraine in its war against Russian invaders. In 2025 the US gave Ukraine a $20B loan. also some military aid- altho admittedly not enough. > **[Trump Sends Weapons to Ukraine: By the Numbers](https://www.csis.org/analysis/trump-sends-weapons-ukraine-numbers)** > > Since President Trump took office, military aid to Ukraine has been on and off, then partially on, then on again, and then increased further. A series of visuals explains the history, the status of aid deliveries, and the recent U.S.-NATO deal. ---
**Author:** ![Calder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e99b99/32.png) [@Calder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Calder)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2026, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1618 "2026-02-23T22:44:48Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > In 2025 the US gave Ukraine a $20B loan. > > also some military aid- altho admittedly not enough. You might want to read the article instead of just reading the headline. The article notes that the 20B loan against russian assets was provided by Biden in December of 2024 not Trump. Some of that was delivered during Trump’s time in office but it seems pretty perverse to give Trump credit for Something Biden did. Trump hasn’t provided any new aid for Ukraine in 2025. The only thing he has done is allowed Europe to purchase American weapons and then donate them to Ukraine and allowed Biden era initiatives to finish delivering after Biden left office. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2026, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1619 "2026-02-23T22:54:34Z")
> [@Calder](#): > > Pretty much everything in that article is correct. The article might be correct, but @aceplace57 's statement that it was “too late” is not. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2026, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1620 "2026-02-23T23:44:05Z")
I meant too late to take any steps to stop the invasion or be better prepared to fight. Zelenskyy has done well as a war time leader. ---
**Author:** ![Calder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e99b99/32.png) [@Calder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Calder)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2026, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1621 "2026-02-24T21:36:37Z")
Russia is very close to not being able to produce any more T-80 tanks. Arguably they have already reached that point as the very few T-80 tanks left in storage are in such a bad condition that the vast majority of vehicles produced are support vehicles using the T-80 hull. They already have exhausted their supply of some types of mobile artillery. My hot take is we will see Ukraine go on several limited offensives this year as the Russia state can’t continue to prosecute the war at it’s current level. Covert Cobal has a video on this. [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/mZY3A2Lb6EM/maxresdefault.jpg "Russia Has Now Reached the End of an Entire Tank Family: The T-80") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZY3A2Lb6EM) ---
**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2026, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1622 "2026-02-24T22:01:40Z")
The tank stage of this conflict is drawing to a close. Largely because Russia has lost most of theirs that were either part of their initial forces or that have been recovered/repaired from storage. Russia can produce _at most_ maybe a couple hundred new tanks per year. Not enough to play a critical role in the war going forward. We’re finding tanks are not particularly cost effective as weapons platforms since the advent of drone warfare. $300 drones are just too good at knocking out $60k tanks. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=80) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=82)