# Russia invades Ukraine -- The regional situation **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [December 30, 2023, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349 "2023-12-30T18:43:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 84
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2026, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1663 "2026-03-26T19:30:14Z")
I believe that simply means that Ukraine has not claimed autorship for this attack and the investigators have no proof. Probably because Ukraine does not want the publicity (because of Trump, I imagine, who is ready and willing to “ease”, i.e. lift sanctions on Russia - of course he is - but also even on Iran, where he is having a war excursion, because he is so frightened of gas price increases. So better not anger him, Ukraine seems to think, and we know why they do). And Russia has not granted access to the damaged ship for reasons I can imagine, including denyability of the shadow fleet, working and living conditions of the crew, real extent of the damage, and a general and pervasive culture of secrecy and lying. The relevant people will find out who it was and find proof, eventually. Until then a serious newspaper states: it is unclear. But yes, we know who it was. Good. Keep it up! ---
**Author:** ![DWMarch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dwmarch/32/1010_2.png) [@DWMarch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DWMarch)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2026, 4:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1664 "2026-03-29T04:17:40Z")
Give a Russian soldier a pair of shoes with heated insoles and his feet will be warm for a day. Give a Russian soldier a pair of shoes with heated insoles _and 1.5 grams of TNT_ and his feet will be warm forever: > **[Booby-Trapped Insoles Allegedly Reached Russian Troops](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/booby-trapped-insoles-allegedly-reached-034649404.html)** > > Heated insoles rigged with explosives by Ukrainian intellgience and sent to Russian troops as aid highlight the vulnerability of informal supply channels. ---
**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2026, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1665 "2026-03-30T13:36:36Z")
Ukraine made the decision to launch multiple attacks on both Baltic and Black Sea port facilities in recent days. These facilities are critical to Russia’s ability to ship oil and gas - their principle means of generating tax revenues to fund their war. [Fire Reported After Ukrainian Strike on Ust-Luga Port - The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/03/29/fire-reported-after-ukrainian-strike-on-ust-luga-port-a92365) It can’t be a coincidence they’re doing this during a time when Trump’s actions have caused the Straits of Hormuz to be closed by Iran. Ukraine isn’t screwing up the global oil supply. Or rather, the US-Iran conflict is impacting world oil prices far more so. ---
**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2026, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1666 "2026-03-30T13:41:52Z")
> [@Cardigan](#): > > Ukraine isn’t screwing up the global oil supply. Or rather, the US-Iran conflict is impacting world oil prices far more so. It seems to me that Ukraine wants to deny Russia the opportunity to profiteer on the current world oil market by selling and shipping their product when much of the rest of the world can’t. Sound strategy, although it will contribute to the world market tightening up further. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2026, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1667 "2026-03-31T02:16:40Z")
Yup, Russia isn’t cashing in on the oil boom like the way it hoped it would. > **[Russia was expecting a windfall from soaring oil prices, but relentless...](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/russia-expecting-windfall-soaring-oil-170124167.html)** > > Ukraine launched a series of drone attacks on Russia’s top export hubs, including Novorossiysk on the Black Sea as well as Primorsk and Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2026, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1668 "2026-04-01T18:58:33Z")
Trump is now threatening to pull the USA out of NATO. Fortunately, Congress passed legislation in 2023 specifically to prevent him from being able to do such a thing, but there may still be loopholes he can use. > **[Trump faces major hurdle to pull US out of NATO](https://www.newsweek.com/trump-major-hurdle-pull-us-out-of-nato-11768249)** > > U.S. president told the Daily Telegraph exiting the alliance was “beyond reconsideration.” ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2026, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1669 "2026-04-01T19:26:10Z")
The biggest loophole is simply him doing it, law or no, and daring Congress to stop him. ---
**Author:** ![Folacin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/folacin/32/3195_2.png) [@Folacin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Folacin)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2026, 1:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1670 "2026-04-02T13:04:10Z")
I don’t think the law can force him to attend meetings or joint exercises, so he can like _de facto_ pull out? ---
**Author:** ![JacobSwan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a6a055/32.png) [@JacobSwan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JacobSwan)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2026, 1:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1671 "2026-04-02T13:12:29Z")
A lot of other NATO countries buy American equipment to ensure compatability. If America is no longer in NATO what’s to stop them spending their NATO money on French or Swedish Jets etc? Will the American arms companies be happy about that? ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2026, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1672 "2026-04-02T13:29:33Z")
Quite, if things got that far. Increasing our expenditure on defence inevitably gives rise to pressure to expand our own productive capacity, whether individually by nation, or in various collective arrangements. As a factual footnote, France withdrew from the NATO military command structure 60 years ago, while remaining a member politically. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2026, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1673 "2026-04-02T14:56:40Z")
> [@JacobSwan](#): > > If America is no longer in NATO what’s to stop them spending their NATO money on French or Swedish Jets etc? I think more NATO countries are going to do just that anyway, whether the US stays in or not. ---
**Author:** ![Mops](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mops/32/16494_2.png) [@Mops](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mops)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2026, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1674 "2026-04-02T15:06:39Z")
> [@Mops](#): > > On a lighter note: Russian prosecutors are moving to trying one Jacques Tilly, one of the designers of the carnival floats on the Rose Monday (Carnival Monday) parade in Düsseldorf, in absentia for “defamation of the Russian armed forces”. > > That will probably mean that German carnival parades will address still more loving attention to Putin in 2026. Most of the floats usually roast German institutions and politicians, but Putin is asking for it. > > … Tilly has now been sentenced in absentia to 8 1/2 years of prison. German language report: > **[Bissig-satirische Mottowagen: Karnevalist Tilly in Moskau verurteilt](https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asien/tilly-urteil-moskau-100.html)** > > Die russische Justiz hat den deutschen Karnevalisten Jacques Tilly zu achteinhalb Jahren Haft verurteilt - wegen bissig-satirischer Mottowagen. Er war nicht anwesend. Which only forces him not to travel to countries who might extradite to Russia, e.g. a cruise down the Danube touching at Belgrade would be inadvisable. An example of Tilly’s carnival floats: [![](https://images.tagesschau.de/image/21f6474f-4d40-407d-9318-ab0a5c8dca75/AAABnAOi34E/AAABnSSvrFg/16x9-big/mottowagen-putin-tilly-100.webp?width=768) ](https://images.tagesschau.de/image/21f6474f-4d40-407d-9318-ab0a5c8dca75/AAABnAOi34E/AAABnSSvrFg/16x9-big/mottowagen-putin-tilly-100.webp?width=768) ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2026, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1675 "2026-04-02T15:09:29Z")
> [@Mops](#): > > Rose Monday (Carnival Monday) And you learn something new every day. I didn’t know there were any nations where carnival was celebrated on Monday, rather than Tuesday. ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2026, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1676 "2026-04-02T16:33:48Z")
In Cologne they celebrate, for lack of a better word, a whole week: > Street carnival, a week-long street festival, also called “[the crazy days](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mardi_Gras)”, takes place between [Fat Thursday](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fat_Thursday) ( **Weiberfastnacht** ) and [Ash Wednesday](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ash_Wednesday) ( **Aschermittwoch** ). The highlight of carnival is [Rose Monday](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rose_Monday) ( **Rosenmontag** ), two days before Ash Wednesday. That is from the English wikiarticle on **[Cologne Carnival](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cologne_Carnival)**, and it falls way short of reality. Crazy days, they claim is the correct translation of tolle Tage? Berserk bonkers round the clock comatose drinking with libidinous desinhibition crancked to eleven comes closer. I was there once, when I was young. Never again, I tell you. That was too much even for young, fit me. ---
**Author:** ![Folacin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/folacin/32/3195_2.png) [@Folacin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Folacin)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2026, 1:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1677 "2026-04-03T13:12:19Z")
> [@JacobSwan](#): > > what’s to stop them spending their NATO money on French or Swedish Jets etc? Pretty sure that is already happening. Boosted by rumors that the US controls kill switches in various military hardware we’ve sold to other countries. ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2026, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1678 "2026-04-11T14:06:20Z")
Meanwhile, there’s a crucial general election in Hungary tomorrow. Will that unblock relations within the EU and free up more support for Ukraine? > **[Zebras, wealth and power: Hungary’s election tests Orbán’s grip on power](https://www.theguardian.com/news/ng-interactive/2026/apr/11/zebras-wealth-and-power-hungarys-election-tests-orbans-grip-on-power)** > > Corruption scandals and a surging opposition have turned the vote into the biggest test yet for the long-serving populist leader > **[Even if Victor Orbán is ousted on Sunday, Hungary’s return to liberal...](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/apr/10/victor-orban-hungary-peter-magyar-liberal-democracy-fidesz)** > > Challenger Péter Magyar is no progressive – and after 16 years of creeping authoritarianism, the PM has embedded Fidesz in the Hungarian state, say Gabriela Greilinger and Cas Mudde of the University of Georgia ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2026, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1679 "2026-04-11T18:22:16Z")
It was disgusting to see Vance campaigning for Orban. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2026, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1680 "2026-04-11T23:46:52Z")
The IDU sticks together in their quest to bring fascism and dictators to every corner of the world. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2026, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1681 "2026-04-12T00:24:34Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > It was disgusting to see Vance campaigning for Orban. Yes, although I don’t know enough about Hungary to know if Vance’s presence could backfire. I believe that in the majority of countries, most voters dislike foreigners telling them who to vote for. Maybe even more disgusting and concerning is Trump essentially promising to send Hungary some of my tax dollars if Orban wins: [Trump promises economic support to Orbán](https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-economic-support-viktor-orban-hungarian-election/) > [@](#): > > "My Administration stands ready to use the full Economic Might of the United States to strengthen Hungary’s Economy, as we have done for our Great Allies in the past, if Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and the Hungarian People ever need it,” Trump wrote in a [post on Truth Social](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116382335330123013) ahead of Sunday’s vote. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2026, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1682 "2026-04-12T01:16:39Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > It was disgusting to see Vance campaigning for Orban. Extremely disgusting. I should have thrown in this link in my last post: See: [Trump and Vance happily smearing Ukraine to save Orbán](https://twogrumpyoldmenonukraine.substack.com/cp/193925277) > [@](#): > > Budapest is plastered with [posters of Zelensky](https://www.irishtimes.com/world/europe/2026/03/31/election-posters-plaster-budapest-but-orban-is-nowhere-to-be-seen/?utm_source=chatgpt.com). One of the most widely circulated campaign slogans reads: > > “Let’s not let Zelensky have the last laugh.” . . . > > Vance – seemingly without getting the irony of his own presence in Budapest - accused the EU of interfering in Hungary’s elections and claimed that Ukraine was trying to influence the vote. > > He claimed that “Viktor [Orbán] told me himself that Zelensky had threatened to send his military to Orbán’s private house. > > “It’s completely scandalous,” Vance said. “You should never have a foreign head of government … threatening the head of government of an allied nation.” > > Do I need to add that as he was talking, his boss was publishing his infamous social media post about annihilating Iran? No joke. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=83) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=85)