# Russia invades Ukraine -- The regional situation **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [December 30, 2023, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349 "2023-12-30T18:43:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 92
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2026, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1823 "2026-07-11T15:50:14Z")
I’m not sure if the explosives on the drones are powerful enough to sink the ships. But striking the helms does the job of disrupting shipping, preventing ecological fall out, and forces Russia to spend resources rescuing and repairing the ships. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2026, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1824 "2026-07-11T15:56:38Z")
True, I hadn’t considered the ecological angle. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2026, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1825 "2026-07-17T13:57:27Z")
Here’s a link that’ll be free to read for a month-ish from now. **[NATO Leader Sees Industrial Capacity Needed For Credible Deterrent | Aviation Week](https://aviationweek.com/defense/supply-chain/nato-leader-sees-industrial-capacity-needed-credible-deterrent)**. Nothing much surprising. More like ~~Captain~~ General Obvious giving a briefing. But still nice to see somebody talking about the disconnect between peacetime production rates and wartime expenditure rates. I’ll quote the lede here so this post will still have meaningful content after the free link expires. > [@Aviation Week - Jul 16 2026](#): > > LONDON—The conflicts in Ukraine and Iran have underscored how industrial capacity and the ability to replenish expended munitions stocks are critical to future war planning, NATO’s Deputy Supreme Allied Commander argues. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2026, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1826 "2026-07-17T14:35:59Z")
Logistics, logistics, logistics! War is a contest of logistics and morale. And much of morale is based on logistics (i.e. are the fighters well supplied with what they need to be as comfortable, healthy, and entertained as possible when they’re not fighting). ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2026, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1827 "2026-07-17T15:56:07Z")
And of course being adequately supplied w ammo & operational machinery. Nothing ruins morale more than being an unarmed sitting duck. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2026, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1828 "2026-07-17T16:39:26Z")
That’s logistics! ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2026, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1829 "2026-07-17T16:43:55Z")
Well I would believe that technology and aptitude are also important, a hundred Roman Legions with the best logistics in the universe leaded by Paulus and Varrus would probably lose against a modern combined arms brigade with some supply problems but good leadership. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2026, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1830 "2026-07-17T16:51:10Z")
**Moderating** Yes, that is accurate, but moving a little too far off topic. If anyone wants to continue this what-if, take it to a new thread. > **How to Reply as a linked Topic** > > Click Reply, in the upper left corner of the reply window is the reply type button, _looks like a curving arrow point to the right_. > > Choose **Reply as linked topic** and it starts a new thread. As an example, you can choose GD, IMHO or The Pit for it. > > That is actually the best method. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2026, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1831 "2026-07-17T18:00:16Z")
No one expected that Russia, supposedly a first-rate military power, could be held off this long. The war was expected to be long over (presumably by Ukraine’s defeat). ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2026, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1832 "2026-07-17T18:28:40Z")
Especially Putin. It did show that long term corruption and being run by a Dictator, can ruin a top military. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2026, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1833 "2026-07-17T18:52:24Z")
Have they ever had an actual top military that hasn’t relied on having thousands of nukes to justify that top ranking? Just look at Afghanistan as an example. They spent several years and had the advantage of being right next door, yet they couldn’t win a war in Afghanistan. The US won the war with them (though obviously not the peace) from halfway around the world in a matter of a month or so. That doesn’t sound like top level to me. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2026, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1834 "2026-07-17T19:08:31Z")
At least judging by the number of planes and armor they had, the Soviet Union/ Warsaw Pact was stupendous. Yet between WW2 and Afghanistan the USSR didn’t actually do much other than Hungary, Czechoslovakia and some border skirmishes with China. How well Soviet troops would actually do against a determined peer enemy probably kept Kremlin planners awake at night. ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2026, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1835 "2026-07-17T21:03:04Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > Have they ever had an actual top military that hasn’t relied on having thousands of nukes to justify that top ranking? Just look at Afghanistan as an example. They spent several years and had the advantage of being right next door, yet they couldn’t win a war in Afghanistan. The Soviet Union managed to retain control over the eastern half of Europe following the end of the Second World War, which I think is good evidence that they were a top tier military force at the time. As the years rolled on by, the Warsaw Pact’s strategy against NATO forces was to overwhelm them with numbers in a short period of time ideally with a surprise attack. It sure sounds like that’s what Russia tried with Ukraine. Russia’s a lot weaker than the Soviet Union was back in the 80s, so it’s hard to make direct comparisons. I think NATO expected the Soviets to penetrate pretty far into Europe if they launched an attack, but who knows? Maybe they would have screwed that up too. I do remember reading a paper written in the 1950s arguing the Soviet Union would never start a war with the United States. The author posited the Soviet Union lacked the political stability to engage in a long, costly war, and would avoid such a situation if possible. I wish I could remember the author’s name. ---
**Author:** ![DWMarch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dwmarch/32/1010_2.png) [@DWMarch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DWMarch)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2026, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1836 "2026-07-17T22:03:29Z")
> [@Odesio](#): > > I wish I could remember the author’s name. This could be “Pravda Means Truth” by Robert A. Heinlein. I don’t have a copy of it handy but the Google AI summary sounds like it’s close to what you are thinking of. ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2026, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1837 "2026-07-17T22:12:24Z")
> [@DWMarch](#): > > This could be “Pravda Means Truth” by Robert A. Heinlein. I don’t have a copy of it handy but the Google AI summary sounds like it’s close to what you are thinking of. It definitely wasn’t Heinlein. The author either ran in academic circles or government (though he wasn’t an elected official). I imagine other authors, Heinlein included, came to similar conclusions. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2026, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1838 "2026-07-24T23:52:09Z")
Putin is preparing the groundwork for mass mobilization and there is some discussion online that the Kremlin is considering enforcing martial law because they are worried about civil unrest. Severe gas/petrol shortages and the destruction of billions of dollars of businesses stock in Wildberries warehouses are already affecting the mood of the average Russian. Putin’s popularity could be put to the ultimate test soon. ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2026, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1839 "2026-07-25T01:31:03Z")
So we have a possible shift from referring to a the war as a special operation and actually refer to it as a war, some officials have proposed allowing criminals to enlist in the Russian army, and officials are allegedly strong arming businesses to have some of their employees enlist with an aim to possibly mobilize forces against Ukraine sometime this fall? I wonder what Putin expects to accomplish that he hasn’t been able to accomplish in the last four years. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2026, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1840 "2026-07-25T01:36:52Z")
Delay the inevitable another 6 months. Same as the last 6 months. And the 6 months before that. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2026, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1841 "2026-07-25T01:49:37Z")
> [@Odesio](#): > > some officials have proposed allowing criminals to enlist in the Russian army I thought they’d already done this a couple years ago. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2026, 1:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1842 "2026-07-25T01:52:25Z")
Putin still has faith in the Russian antlike ability to crush an enemy under a tsunami of bodies. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=91) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=93)