# Russia invades Ukraine -- The regional situation **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [December 30, 2023, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349 "2023-12-30T18:43:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 93
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2026, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1843 "2026-07-25T01:53:32Z")
> [@Odesio](#): > > some officials have proposed allowing criminals to enlist in the Russian army, I mean that’s just a slight expansion of pre-existing policies. They’ve been steadily expanding their convict legions for years now. First it was the Wagner Group, then [Storm-Z](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm-Z). Followed recently by [Storm-V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm-V), who in the final apotheosis of the common Russian trooper back to their 18th century status as essentially military slaves, get the fantastic award of no pardons after serving. Assuming they survive, which considering how they are used seems mighty unlikely for most. They’re also scraping deeper into the barrel in the search for warm bodies. Convicted sociopathic murderers make the best soldiers don’t you know. All wartime armies are variably bad at human rights at the end of the day - it’s the sad nature of war. But the motto of the Russian army has long been “it could always be worse - here, we’ll show you how.” ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2026, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1844 "2026-07-25T02:12:18Z")
I might have objected to targeting Russia’s civilian small business early in the war. But, Russia’s targeting of electricity and gas in Ukraine hurts civilians much more. People can get sick with pneumonia and freeze to death in unheated buildings. The strategies are similar. Russian civilians lives are made more difficult and they know it’s because of Putin’s war a thousand miles away. > **[Ukraine strikes on Russia’s ‘Amazon’ warehouses bring war closer to ordinary...](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jul/24/ukraine-warehouse-strikes-wildberries-war-closer-ordinary-russians)** > > Kyiv’s attacks on Wildberries destroy billions of dollars worth of goods made, sold and bought by everyday Russians > [@](#): > > Kyiv is turning its attention to logistics networks in an attempt to erode the sense of normality that has insulated many urban Russians from the realities of the war. _Hey, what happened to my order? Why hasn’t it shipped?_ > [@](#): > > Mikhailova is one of hundreds, perhaps thousands, of Russian entrepreneurs whose small businesses have been devastated by a wave of Ukrainian drone strikes targeting warehouses belonging to Wildberries, Russia’s largest e-commerce company and the country’s answer to Amazon. > > Ukrainian drones have hit at least nine Wildberries warehouses on four of the past seven days, striking logistics centres from southern Russia to the outskirts of St Petersburg, killing at least nine people and destroying inventory worth billions of dollars. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2026, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1845 "2026-07-25T16:07:26Z")
I’m sure the warm bodies coming out of Russian prisons are the peak of health and physical strength. Struggling against malnutrition and tuberculosis makes one stronger. ---
**Author:** ![smithsb](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smithsb/32/12107_2.png) [@smithsb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smithsb)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2026, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1846 "2026-07-25T19:07:28Z")
It’s the old, "throw the infected blankets/ prisoners/ carcasses) over the wall, into the fray gambit. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2026, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1847 "2026-07-25T19:38:35Z")
Isn’t Ukraine’s kill ratio currently enough to depopulate Russia? ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2026, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1848 "2026-07-25T20:02:40Z")
The current casualty rate is 1,300 per week killed or seriously wounded. Full mobilization might yield 1 to 2 million troops. That would last almost 30 years at the current rate. But that would impose serious effects on the economy as well as popular support for continuing the war. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2026, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1849 "2026-07-25T20:07:59Z")
Do you have a cite for that? Earlier this year the claimed causality rate was[30k per month](https://www.csis.org/analysis/russian-blood-and-treasure-ballooning-costs-putins-war). > [@](#): > > In addition, Russia’s monthly casualty rates of over 30,000 per month in 2026 have likely exceeded Russia’s recruitment rates of roughly 27,000 new recruits per month. The Russia-Ukraine casualty rate has likely risen to nearly 8:1 in the first half of 2026, up from between 2:1 and 3:1 for much of the war, in large part due to Ukraine’s use of drones—including AI-enabled drones—as part of its aggressive air interdiction campaign. Definition of casualty might vary, things might have slowed, and different places are going to have different estimates, but that’s a big difference. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2026, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1850 "2026-07-25T20:14:44Z")
That’s at current recruitment rates, which are still largely volunteers and young draftees (18-30). Full mobilization would tap into a much larger pool of conscriptees. Putin has avoided this because of economic and social consequences. > **[Lawmakers move to extend Russia's compulsory military draft to a year-round...](https://apnews.com/article/russia-military-conscription-draft-ukraine-war-9849511e45f7b7db596103fd71e69bae)** > > Russian lawmakers have endorsed a bill mandating year-round military conscription, rather than just in the spring and fall, as authorities seek to fill the ranks as fighting in Ukraine grinds through a fourth year. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2026, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1851 "2026-07-25T20:26:47Z")
I meant the casualty rate. You’re claiming 5k per month while CSIS is claiming 30k. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2026, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1852 "2026-08-05T13:57:27Z")
[Patriot manufacturing license Talks](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/81275) between Ukraine and the US looked promising. It looked like Ukraine would get a manufacturing license. [Then Trump changes his mind.](https://abcnews.com/Politics/reversal-trump-agreed-grant-ukraine-licenses-produce-patriot/story?id=135266819) That’s all too typical for this President. I’m a bit confused about the importance of the Patriot missiles? I thought the Patriot’s brains were the Ground Control radar? [I quoted from Wikipedia.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIM-104_Patriot) The physical missiles have to “talk” to the guidance & radar components. But, IMHO it seems like a good design should be adaptable to many types of smart missiles. The **Patriot System** shouldn’t be useless without a consumable part like the missile. The expended missile falls to the ground. Any foreign agent could salvage the electronics and reverse engineer how they work. **What am I missing? Why does Ukraine and many other countries have billion dollar defensive weapon systems and no bullets? The reported cost of each Patriot missile is staggering.** > [@](#): > > The Patriot system is modular and highly mobile. A [battery](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIM-104_Patriot#Patriot_battalion)-sized element can be installed in less than an hour. All components, consisting of the fire control section (radar set, engagement control station, antenna mast group, electric power plant) and launchers, are truck- or trailer-mounted. The radar set and launchers with missiles are mounted on M860 semi-trailers, which are towed by [Oshkosh](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oshkosh_Corporation "Oshkosh Corporation") M983 [HEMTTs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heavy_Expanded_Mobility_Tactical_Truck "Heavy Expanded Mobility Tactical Truck"). > [@](#): > > The heart of the Patriot battery is the fire control section, consisting of the AN/MPQ-53 or −65/65A Radar Set (RS), the AN/MSQ-104 or −132 Engagement Control Station (ECS), the OE-349 Antenna Mast Group (AMG), and the EPP-III Electric Power Plant (EPP). The system’s missiles are transported on and launched from either the M901 Launching Station (LS), which can carry up to four PAC-2 missiles; the M902 LS, with sixteen PAC-3 missiles; or the M903 LS, which can be configured to carry PAC-2, PAC-3, and MSE/SkyCeptor missiles in various combinations. A Patriot [battalion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battalion "Battalion") is also equipped with the Information Coordination Central (ICC), a command station designed to coordinate the launches of a battalion and uplink Patriot to the [JTIDS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Tactical_Information_Distribution_System "Joint Tactical Information Distribution System") or [MIDS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multifunctional_Information_Distribution_System "Multifunctional Information Distribution System") network. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2026, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1853 "2026-08-05T14:16:13Z")
4 [million for one damn missile is ridiculous.](https://militarymachine.com/patriot-missile-system-cost) How can any country fire 4 million dollar bullets? **It’s about time!** Link [Lockheed Martin says it will build new, half-price Patriot missile | Stars and Stripes](https://www.stripes.com/theaters/us/2026-07-23/patriot-missile-reduced-cost-lockheed-22348089.html) **This sounds like war profiteering to me.** > [@](#): > > A newly produced Patriot battery costs about $1.1 billion, a figure the Congressional Research Service breaks down as roughly $400 million for the hardware and about $690 million for a full load of missiles. Each interceptor costs around $4 million, with the Army’s own budget documents putting the flyaway cost of the latest PAC-3 MSE at about $3.9 million per round. ---
**Author:** ![Mops](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mops/32/16494_2.png) [@Mops](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mops)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2026, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1854 "2026-08-05T15:11:40Z")
A drone was seen by a Leipzig airport employee on Tuesday 4 August evening. Police explosive experts defused an apparent bomb. > **[Germany news: Explosive drone defused at Leipzig airport](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-news-explosive-drone-defused-at-leipzig-airport/live-78241747)** > > A German airport was disrupted for hours after an explosive-laden drone was discovered near one of the runways. Investigators are examining a possible political motive. DW has the latest. Other media reports mentioned that Ukrainian freight aircraft were parked in the vicinity, and that a DHL freight aircraft due to land that had to go around due to the airport’s emergency closure reported a collision with an unknown object, suspected to be another drone that had been detected previously. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2026, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1855 "2026-08-05T17:51:38Z")
That sounds to me like a printers-and-ink business model. The missiles are expensive because the company that makes the missile wants to make a lot of money selling it. ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2026, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1856 "2026-08-05T19:14:33Z")
Ehh, sounds like a missile system designed in the 1970s that was designed to attack manned aircraft, later pressed into attacking other things that travel through the air. Adding capability costs money, after all. And really, that price isn’t crazy. The more advanced missiles for the S-400 system range from 1 million to 2 million dollars each, and those are made with Russian labor costs. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2026, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1857 "2026-08-05T22:06:00Z")
Nonetheless, the “best at any price” gold standard for Western weapons systems isn’t a good fit for Ukraine, which has survived by using cheap\* and fecund means. ∗“cheap” of course being relative when modern weapons are the subject. ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2026, 8:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1858 "2026-08-06T08:26:50Z")
> [@Mops](#): > > Other media reports mentioned that Ukrainian freight aircraft were parked in the vicinity The **[Handelsblatt](https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/sicherheit-drohnen-vorfall-dobrindt-sieht-neue-gefahrenqualitaet/100245262.html)** [in German and paywalled, I fear) reports: > The drone is reported to have been found near a Ukrainian Antonov An-124 aircraft. This is one of the largest commercial transport aircraft in the world. The German Armed Forces have also chartered such aircraft in the past to transport particularly heavy loads. > Given the presence of the Ukrainian aircraft, it seems likely that Russia is behind the incident. However, Dobrindt [Federal Minister of the Interior, P-L], who had specifically cut short his holiday in Italy to travel to Saxony, did not explicitly name Russia. He did, however, suggest that the masterminds behind the incident could be “foreign powers” seeking to stir up unrest. > In addition, the authorities are searching for parts of a suspected second drone that may have collided with a DHL cargo aircraft. The aircraft had taken off after a runway was closed and was struck by an object in the process, resulting in minor damage. Germany is not prepared at all to deal with drones. Almost nobody is, it seems. This will have to change fast or disaster is unavoidable. ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2026, 9:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1859 "2026-08-06T09:54:24Z")
> **[Head of drone manufacturer critically injured in car bomb in Russia](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/aug/05/head-drone-manufacturer-critically-injured-car-bomb-russia-ukraine)** > > Assassination attempt demonstrates Ukraine’s ability to continue clandestine operations deep inside Russian territory > **[Lithuanian minister warns against Russia's 'false flag' strike on the Baltics -...](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/aug/06/ukraine-volodymyr-zelenskyy-russia-nato-germany-leipzig-wildfires-heatwaves-europe-live-news?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-6a7450048f0851f2bc6ecbdd#block-6a7450048f0851f2bc6ecbdd)** > > Lithuania’s defence minister Robertas Kaunas warned that Russia could be considering possible “false flag” provocations against Nato countries in the Baltic region. | Lithuania’s defence minister says they are ‘monitoring’ Russia’s plans and... ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2026, 5:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1860 "2026-08-07T05:53:48Z")
More information on the drone at Leipzig airport. This wasn’t a joker playing a prank. > [@](#): > > It had apparently been modified to help avoid detection by the airport’s drone defense sensors, said Alexander Dobrindt, federal minister of the interior for Germany, during a press conference. and > [@](#): > > Dobrindt described the drone as carrying a fist-sized package of a substance believed to be the plastic explosive Semtex. Only a failed detonator prevented the drone from exploding near the Ukrainian cargo aircraft, he said. > **[Explosive drone found hovering near Ukrainian cargo aircraft at German airport](https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2026/08/germany-disarms-explosive-drone-found-at-airport-hunts-possible-second-drone/)** > > Russian attack? Explosive drone targeted parked aircraft at Leipzig airport. ---
**Author:** ![Mops](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mops/32/16494_2.png) [@Mops](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mops)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2026, 12:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1861 "2026-08-07T12:01:03Z")
Other German reports now say that a driver of one of Leipzig Airport‘s buses happened to pass by the low flying drone, got out, fished it out of the air and got it to the ground. I presume he now reconsiders this course of action knowing it had ~ 800 g of Semtex on board. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2026, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1862 "2026-08-15T20:40:09Z")
This news is a couple days old. An Italian munitions factory blew up. AIUI, this factory was a source of munitions sent to Ukraine. Fortunately, there were no casualties, since the factory was closed for summer holidays. Investigation is still going on, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the cause was either Russian saboteurs or drones. If so, we may expect more drone attacks against European munitions factories. > **[Huge explosion rocks Italian munitions factory south of Rome](https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/8/13/huge-explosion-rocks-italian-munitions-factory-south-of-rome#flips-6403356171112:0)** > > A powerful explosion tore through a munitions faction south of the Italian capital Rome on Thursday. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=92) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=94)