# Russia invades Ukraine -- The regional situation **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [December 30, 2023, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349 "2023-12-30T18:43:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 96
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2026, 12:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1903 "2026-08-27T12:35:32Z")
Would that still convince Putin, though? Putin may be inclined to think that the _messenger_ (CIA Director Ratcliffe) personally supports NATO, but have legit reason to doubt the support of Trump himself. By this point, Trump has shown such a long track record of anti-NATO, pro-Putin behavior, and such a penchant for changing his mind on a topic every 3 days, that this Ratcliffe message is like pre-Holocaust Hitler sending an envoy to assure people, “I have no intention of doing bad thing to Jews.” Everyone’s response would be to raise eyebrows, “Really…?” ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2026, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1904 "2026-08-27T15:16:11Z")
The presumption is that a high-ranking enough envoy couldn’t go there and say such things without the full backing of the administration. It isn’t like the director of the CIA can just go on his own initiative. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2026, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1905 "2026-08-27T15:17:09Z")
> [@Lumpy](#): > > It isn’t like the director of the CIA can just go on his own initiative. Perhaps not, but it’s certainly possible that Trump is completely unaware of this trip. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2026, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1906 "2026-08-27T15:19:31Z")
If I had to make a completely blind guess, I’d say that the grownups in the room found a way to get Trump to sign off on the visit without his really understanding what Ratcliffe was planning to do. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2026, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1907 "2026-08-27T15:21:00Z")
> [@Lumpy](#): > > If I had to make a completely blind guess, I’d say that the grownups in the room found a way to get Trump to sign off on the visit without his really understanding what Ratcliffe was planning to do I agree, this seems likely. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2026, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1908 "2026-08-27T15:43:04Z")
If so, then this means Putin still has reason to doubt Trump will defend NATO with Article 5. After all, Putin will (quite understandably) reason, _“If Trump didn’t truly understand and agree with Ratcliffe’s message to me, or Ratcliffe’s purpose for visiting me, then this visit doesn’t convince me Trump will support NATO. After all, in a war, Trump will be commander-in-chief, not Ratcliffe.”_ ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2026, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1909 "2026-08-27T16:38:19Z")
If Article 5 is triggered and Congress passes a law approving a military response, Trump would have to veto it. There’s a possible scenario after that where two thirds of the house overrides his veto, and then you’d have a constitutional crisis. That’s when the Dems will start talking about impeachment. ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2026, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1910 "2026-08-27T19:38:12Z")
How would Putin know that this maneuver was conducted to get Trump’s sign off? ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2026, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1911 "2026-08-27T20:10:04Z")
I’m pretty sure Putin knows everything that occurs with the Trump administration within minutes of it actually happening. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2026, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1912 "2026-08-27T20:41:08Z")
Before, most likely. He knows what he told them to do before they do it. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2026, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1913 "2026-08-28T15:14:52Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > (Hypothetical Putin musing) “_After all, in a war, Trump will be commander-in-chief, not Ratcliffe._” _(my clarification in parentheses above)_ I could never prove it, of course … but I believe there are many probable scenarios in which Trump’s “commander-in-chief” status would be _de facto_ kneecapped. By direct insubordination of several parties simultaneously, should it come to that – meaning that not only might Trump’s direct order to “do” or “not do” X be subverted, but also that the party responsible for physically enforcing the order (e.g. arresting the insubordinate party) will ALSO ignore their order. And then turtles all the way down. “_But what if we didn’t?_” can flow both ways. Putin must understand that Trump does not have Putinian control over the Unites States of America. He has power of a kind, yes, and even plenty of it. But Trump is not now a direct analog of Vladimir Putin. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2026, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1914 "2026-08-28T15:52:46Z")
OK, but ISTM that defiance of a commander-in-chief is much easier to do when it takes the form of refusing to carry out an attack he has ordered. It would be much harder, and more unprecedented, for the defiance to take the form of _fighting_ against Russia (as a response to Russia attack on NATO) when the president has ordered the military to _stand down._ ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2026, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1915 "2026-08-28T17:42:45Z")
Yes, there’s no doubt the form of an eventual “push comes to shove” scenario will be novel in execution and, in its own way, historically fascinating. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2026, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1916 "2026-09-01T02:29:48Z")
Drone tech keeps advancing. It won’t be long before similar drones appear in other conflicts. The production capacity is shocking. 800 drones used in 4 days? I wonder what percentage returns back to home base after a mission? Are all the drones crashed into targets? > **[Kyiv suffers hours of daytime air raids as Russia deploys new jet-powered drones](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/aug/31/russia-fires-jet-powered-drones-ukraine)** > > Volodymyr Zelenskyy says about 800 Shahed drones fired into Ukraine in four days in effort to ‘wear down’ country > [@](#): > > Kyiv is enduring hours of daytime air raids and air raid warnings as Russia has fired 800 jet-powered drones into [Ukraine](https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) in four days, using the faster weapons to sustain prolonged waves of attacks > > The new-model Shahed drones have a cruising speed of 200mph to 250mph , about double the 115mph achieved by the piston-engine version and beyond the speed of Ukraine’s cheap interceptors, making them harder to stop. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2026, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1917 "2026-09-01T02:40:26Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > The production capacity is shocking. 800 drones used in 4 days? You don’t know how long they were stockpiling for before the attack. > [@aceplace57](#): > > I wonder what percentage returns back to home base after a mission? Are all the drones crashed into targets? > > [Kyiv suffers hours of daytime air raids as Russia deploys new jet-powered drones | Ukraine | The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/aug/31/russia-fires-jet-powered-drones-ukraine) 0, these are OWA drones. “Drones” is a very overloaded term at the moment. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2026, 12:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1918 "2026-09-01T12:36:56Z")
These are just low(er) speed smart(er) cruise missiles. Flying bombs with a terminal guidance system. it is way past time to retire the term “drone” as utterly useless. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2026, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1919 "2026-09-01T13:26:46Z")
The quantity of drones makes me wonder who’s supplying the circuit boards and other components. I doubt Russia has the ability to produce the microprocessors and other IC’s. They’re probably buying fully assembled circuit boards. ---
**Author:** ![Bookkeeper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bookkeeper/32/281_2.png) [@Bookkeeper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bookkeeper)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2026, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1920 "2026-09-01T17:28:24Z")
This is one of the ways that China is aiding Russia in the war. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1921 "2026-09-02T03:49:20Z")
I’m not a munitions expert, but it’s my understanding these are lower speed and much dumber cruise missiles. Basically the weapons that have this mission have to trade off: - Cost - Manufacturability - Range - Payload - Speed - Programming / path sophistication - Stealth OWAs max out the top 2 and then trade off range and warhead size. If they’re cheap enough and you can built enough some will still get through even though they’re slower and easier to see than a JASSM. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2026, 9:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1922 "2026-09-02T09:48:02Z")
'Zactly. I’m mostly poking back at the widespread use of the word “drone” to describe anything unmanned which travels through the air and hurts people and is not an artillery shell. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=95) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=97)