# Russia invades Ukraine -- The regional situation **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [December 30, 2023, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349 "2023-12-30T18:43:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 98
**Author:** ![Calder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e99b99/32.png) [@Calder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Calder)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2026, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1943 "2026-09-14T19:44:54Z")
> [@Lumpy](#): > > Indeed, no country that can make its own nukes could ever need or want to sell them for mere money; Pakistan, however, did transfer key nuclear weapons–related technology through the A.Q. Khan network. Khan provided North Korea with P‑1 and P‑2 centrifuge designs, more than twenty complete centrifuges, thousands of components, and even uranium hexafluoride (UF6) feedstock — in exchange for North Korea’s Nodong missile technology, which Pakistan developed into the Ghauri, a nuclear‑capable medium‑range ballistic missile. Khan’s network also supplied Iran and Libya with centrifuge designs, components, and technical assistance. Libya even received a complete nuclear weapons design. These transfers were not finished bombs, but they unquestionably count as the sale of nuclear weapons capability. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2026, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1944 "2026-09-14T19:46:58Z")
I think the Brits would consider Killing Boris Johnson a major incident. He used to be popular and had supporters. Would it provoke a war with Russia? I’m not sure. I can’t see any one country acting without NATO. ---
**Author:** ![JacobSwan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a6a055/32.png) [@JacobSwan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JacobSwan)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2026, 10:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1945 "2026-09-15T10:55:24Z")
> [@Pardel-Lux](#): > > France once gave critical atomic plans to Israel Israel and South Africa did a lot of trading in material and knowledge in the 70s and 80s. Again, not sure if money changed hands. It’s believed that the material went back to Israel when SA dismantled their nukes in the late 80s. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2026, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1946 "2026-09-25T14:50:56Z")
This article in the defense trade press is free for the next week > **[Denmark Warns Of Growing Russian Military Strike Risk On NATO Members |...](https://aviationweek.com/defense/missile-defense-weapons/denmark-warns-growing-russian-military-strike-risk-nato-members)** > > Denmark's intelligence service says the risk of Russian attacks on NATO countries is growing, though it still assesses the likelihood of such attacks as limited. Here’s the lede for posterity & searchability: > Denmark’s intelligence service warns that the risk of Russian attacks on NATO countries—including strikes with long-range missiles—is growing, though it still assesses the actual likelihood of such attacks as limited. ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2026, 4:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1947 "2026-09-26T04:37:00Z")
One thing that kind of confused me about the claims that larger scale Russian attacks against eastern NATO members were imminent was the lack of a visible build up on their borders. If Russia was going to attack there, it seems we’d see the build up coming, as we did in Ukraine. My blind spot seems to be that I hadn’t really accounted for how close St. Petersburg is to that area, where a lot of Russian military power is already concentrated. This report from the (pretty neoconservative) Atlantic Council back in February lays out what they think the different attack plans Russia could have in that area. They don’t really have any speculation on what else would happen afterward, but they all seem like fairly plausible first attacks that would go beyond hybrid warfare and provocation. So, I suppose that the message is if you see any of these start to happen, things are probably going to get extra nasty. > **[Putin’s next move? Five Russian attack scenarios Europe must prepare for](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/putins-next-move-five-russian-attack-scenarios-europe-must-prepare-for/)** > > Whether emboldened by victory in Ukraine or motivated by a loss to pursue success elsewhere, Russian president Vladimir Putin is likely to continue his campaign of aggression. ---
**Author:** ![Askance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askance/32/8281_2.png) [@Askance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askance)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2026, 4:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1948 "2026-09-26T04:53:06Z")
Not to mention that attacks don’t really need buildups of conventional forces near the border any more. Preparing waves of drones in warehouses tens of km from the border would be pretty much undetectable. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2026, 6:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1949 "2026-09-26T06:51:57Z")
The implication of the article **LSLGuy** linked to suggests that Russia’s goal in attacking NATO isn’t to harm NATO itself, it’s to sow seeds of NATO distrust or dislike of Ukraine, to hopefully sever any further NATO support to Ukraine. By causing explosions on NATO soil, and saying “Oh, it’s because Ukraine’s actions made our drones and missiles hit you by going off-path,” or “Ukrainian drones hit you,” it would false-flag things. ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2026, 7:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1950 "2026-09-26T07:15:26Z")
It could be massive cyber-attacks on transport and delivery systems. ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2026, 1:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1951 "2026-09-26T13:04:08Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > The implication of the article **LSLGuy** linked to suggests that Russia’s goal in attacking NATO isn’t to harm NATO itself, it’s to sow seeds of NATO distrust or dislike of Ukraine, to hopefully sever any further NATO support to Ukraine. Yeah, that’s why my reply to the thread wasn’t really a reply to LSLGuy. I was made curious about the possibility of conventional war in the area by the Polish president saying that Poland might give up land recently. There didn’t seem to be any reports of troop buildups in the area that would make that possible. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2026, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1952 "2026-09-26T17:44:34Z")
Unrelated to my specifics of my recently cited article, here’s another vote that Russian attacks on NATO, if / when they occur will be anything but a conventional land incursion across the current agreed land borders. The choices of attack vector can be nearly anything. Just not tanks and artillery & infantry streaming across a border. That was the last war. And by that definition, it’s pretty clear Russia has already been directly attacking NATO for a couple years now. And indirectly attacking the entire West for coming up on 30 years. (Putin has been in charge for 27 years now). ---
**Author:** ![smithsb](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smithsb/32/12107_2.png) [@smithsb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smithsb)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2026, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1953 "2026-09-27T21:15:55Z")
Some logistics development. Belarus has restored an abandoned 1934 railway line near Porechye that ends close to the Lithuanian border, the Latežeris crossing, and the strategically sensitive Suwałki Gap. While the Lithuanian section toward Druskininkai was dismantled in 2000, Belarus recently renovated its tracks and built a connecting road toward the border. This development has drawn regional security concern amid the closure of the Latežeris crossing and Lithuania’s installation of anti-tank defenses along the area. ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2026, 7:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1954 "2026-10-05T07:21:33Z")
Meanwhile, deep in Siberia: The Pest! > **[US Monitors Suspected Plague Case In Russia As Calls Grow For Travel...](https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-plague-warning-siberia-irkutsk-laboratory/33870385.html)** > > The United States is monitoring reports of a suspected case of pneumonic plague in Russia after the death of a 28-year-old laboratory worker in the Siberian region of Irkutsk, as some US political figures call for sweeping travel restrictions... It is probably not as bad as it sounds, but having whished it or something like that on both their houses and dumas it seems worth mentioning. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2026, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1955 "2026-10-05T15:47:51Z")
Good thing the USA has a robust public vaccination program w high compliance. Oh … wait. As I recently commented in another thread … Truly we live in accursed times ---
**Author:** ![Chelonaut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e9a140/32.png) [@Chelonaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chelonaut)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2026, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1956 "2026-10-05T16:30:34Z")
> [@Pardel-Lux](#): > > Meanwhile, deep in Siberia: The Pest! It’s quite ironic thinking about all the screeching about “Ukrainian biolabs” there was (and still is probably) from pro-russian trolls. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2026, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1957 "2026-10-05T17:14:56Z")
In 2001 just before the 9-11 terrorist attacks, Mike Wallace of _60 Minutes_ investigated the former Soviet Union’s covert bioweapons program to weaponize smallpox. The Soviet Union was among the leaders of the global program to eradicate smallpox– apparently, so their stocks of smallpox would be that much more lethal if released. > **[The Smallpox Threat: How Serious?](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-smallpox-threat-how-serious/)** > > Mike Wallace Talks To The Expert ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2026, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1958 "2026-10-05T19:11:31Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Good thing the USA has a robust public vaccination program w high compliance. No vaccine for pneumonic plague. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2026, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1959 "2026-10-05T20:11:42Z")
Though being bacterial it does respond to antibiotics. ---
**Author:** ![smithsb](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smithsb/32/12107_2.png) [@smithsb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smithsb)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2026, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1960 "2026-10-05T20:14:25Z")
Hence the possible bioengineering. ---
**Author:** ![Mollie\_Magill](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mollie_magill/32/20882_2.png) [@Mollie\_Magill](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mollie_Magill)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2026, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1961 "2026-10-05T20:19:23Z")
Are you saying the Russians are planning on violating the Geneva Conventions? It’s a good thing we have the Canadians and Poles on our side. Oh, wait. ---
**Author:** ![DWMarch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dwmarch/32/1010_2.png) [@DWMarch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DWMarch)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2026, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349/1962 "2026-10-10T00:26:37Z")
Apparently Trump has made a deal with Putin for Russian diesel to be delivered to the US, just in time for the midterms: > **[Trump strikes deal with Putin to get diesel in sharp reversal of US policy...](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-says-us-obtain-diesel-185740965.html)** > > WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump said he has struck a deal to obtain diesel from Russia, a stunning reversal of years of U. pressure on Moscow over its war with Ukraine and an attempt to addre... I am curious how Russia is going to come up with spare fuel when they don’t have enough for themselves although I suppose Putin doesn’t care if regular folks in Russia suffer. I also wonder how much money Russia is getting for this. I would imagine Putin knows well enough to demand payment in advance. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=97) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-the-regional-situation/995349.md?page=99)