# Russia may be about to invade Ukraine. {Russia has invaded as of Feb 24-2022} **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [April 9, 2021, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699 "2021-04-09T20:11:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2022, 1:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/221 "2022-01-24T13:44:56Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > Just from some stuff I heard on CBC news: Canada has contributed $120 million to help the stability of Ukraine and its defenses. What a stupid, useless gesture, especially if what I read tis morning is true and one of the loan conditions is they not use it for weapons. How does this help? Russia’s invasion may be imminent. Can you stop a tank with a brick of $100 bills? Ukraine needs weapons. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2022, 1:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/222 "2022-01-24T13:52:23Z")
Biden’s misstep at the press conference has been corrected. The administration has made clear that any incursion into Ukraine will be answered with massive economic sanctions. Either Putin is going to invade soon or he’s just testing the resolve of the west. It seems to me he’d have been better off doing it a couple years ago when he controlled the White House. ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2022, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/223 "2022-01-24T14:05:43Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Ukraine needs weapons. And we are supplying them. A shipment of “lethal aid” arrived yesterday, and apparently more is on the way. It’s unclear what exactly is included or planned, but I imagine that’s intentional. > **[Ukraine tension: US 'lethal aid' arrives in Kyiv amid border build-up](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60096261)** > > The first delivery of a security assistance package includes ammunition for "front line defenders". ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2022, 2:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/224 "2022-01-24T14:38:55Z")
Ireland doesn’t care for the Russian presence off their shores; NATO doesn’t care for Russian provocation: > **[US orders 8,500 troops on heightened alert amid Russia worry](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-tensions-live-updates-1c3eee4895926233aa85ad52ef09d102)** > > WASHINGTON (AP) — The Pentagon ordered 8,500 troops on higher alert Monday to potentially deploy to Europe as part of a NATO “response force” amid growing concern that Russia could soon make a military move on Ukraine. ---
**Author:** ![OldOlds](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a3d4f5/32.png) [@OldOlds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldOlds)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2022, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/225 "2022-01-24T14:46:42Z")
A (jaded and cynical) friend of mine used to say “The problem with marriage is that if one person’s an asshole, and the other isn’t, the asshole always wins.” I think that’s the problem with the likes of Putin. Everyone knows it’s wrong, and in a perfect world there’s be 200,000 NATO forces in Ukraine right now. But if one actually cares about the consequences, and the dead people, one knows how dangerous that is. Thus, the asshole will win. (I hope it’s clear that I’m not happy about that) ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2022, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/226 "2022-01-24T19:06:00Z")
Is there any conceivable scenario under which Russia would emerge better off for having invaded Ukraine? In every hypothetical thus far, either 1. Russia wins and takes huge political, military, social, diplomatic, economic losses as a result = Pyrrhic victory, or 2. Russia loses and suffers all those same aforementioned above losses = straight up loss ---
**Author:** ![SpacemanSpiff\_II](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e19adc/32.png) [@SpacemanSpiff\_II](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpacemanSpiff_II)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2022, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/227 "2022-01-24T19:19:32Z")
The other hypothetical is that Russia wins and is now a larger country with a larger population and more resources. In addition, they are still the main energy suppliers to Western Europe, and are also a bigger threat to other Eastern European countries (having demonstrated that they are willing and able to invade other countries), and they also maintain alliances with numerous other countries, large and small, who don’t like Western Superpowers telling them what to do. As a result, everyone grudgingly comes around to accepting the new status quo. Big win for Russia. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2022, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/228 "2022-01-24T19:51:24Z")
If Russia takes Ukraine, it’s far more likely that China goes for Taiwan. The risk of losing Taiwan, from the international market, is too great to allow. It’s not really clear how a war unfolds when nuclear powers decide that it’s free for all season and that it was a mistake all along to believe in borders when, “Hey, we got nukes and they don’t.” The closest thing to an effective response, at that point, is that every country decides which of the three powers they want to become a part of and, after that, it’s mutually assured destruction if anyone attacks the land of one of the other two. That really doesn’t land us in a happy happy sort of existence - not for anyone involved. Stopping the ball in Ukraine is worth doing, I’d say. ---
**Author:** ![SpacemanSpiff\_II](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e19adc/32.png) [@SpacemanSpiff\_II](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpacemanSpiff_II)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2022, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/229 "2022-01-24T20:04:22Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > Stopping the ball in Ukraine is worth doing, I’d say. You started off with “far more likely” and ended up with “stopping the ball”. Point being that even if you’re correct that if Russia takes Ukraine it’s far more likely that China goes for Taiwan, it’s far from clear that the West maintaining severe (and self-harming) sanctions would change this likelihood much, or in which direction. It’s very difficult to sanction a whole bunch of major powers, especially since that entices them to join a new axis of opponents. So if the West maintains severe sanctions against Russia, that might itself make it _more_ likely that China goes for Taiwan, since they may well gamble that the West won’t have the stomach for more sanctions against another major world power. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2022, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/230 "2022-01-24T20:12:11Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Is there any conceivable scenario under which Russia would emerge better off for having invaded Ukraine? Sure. Russia does its ‘limited incursion’, and the chaos causes the Ukranian government to fall and be replaced by Putin stooges. The west shrugs and decides it’s not worth a war to unwind what just happened. Putin now controls Ukraine, and the ease with which he pulled it off has him eyeing the rest of the old Soviet Union. Eventually most of the troops go home or move on to the next conquest, and Putin is a big hero in Russia. Or, Putin invades Ukraine, the west does nothing, so China goes after Taiwan and the world forgets about Ukraine. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2022, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/231 "2022-01-24T20:15:18Z")
Here’s some news: > **[US orders 8,500 troops on heightened alert amid Russia worry](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-tensions-live-updates-1c3eee4895926233aa85ad52ef09d102)** > > The Pentagon says Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered about 8,500 U.S. troops on heightened alert, preparing for possible deployment to Europe, if needed, to reassure NATO allies in the face of Russian aggression on the border of Ukraine. > [@](#): > > The Pentagon said Monday that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has put up to 8,500 troops on heightened alert, so they will be prepared to deploy if needed to reassure NATO allies in the face of ongoing Russian aggression on the border of Ukraine. > > Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said no final decisions have been made on deployments. He said the order is about ensuring that the U.S. is ready to respond if NATO decides to deploy its response force. > > “What this is about is reassurance to our NATO allies,” Kirby said. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2022, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/232 "2022-01-24T21:18:55Z")
> [@SpacemanSpiff\_II](#): > > You started off with “far more likely” and ended up with “stopping the ball”. Point being that even if you’re correct that if Russia takes Ukraine it’s far more likely that China goes for Taiwan, it’s far from clear that the West maintaining severe (and self-harming) sanctions would change this likelihood much, or in which direction. > > It’s very difficult to sanction a whole bunch of major powers, especially since that entices them to join a new axis of opponents. So if the West maintains severe sanctions against Russia, that might itself make it _more_ likely that China goes for Taiwan, since they may well gamble that the West won’t have the stomach for more sanctions against another major world power. In terms of not becoming the trigger for everything to go sideways, threatening sanctions is pretty well the only thing we can do at this point in the equation. Biden and/or NATO seem to be increasing on that by stationing troops in non-Ukrainian lands near Russia, but I’m not sure that that’s prudent to do. To me it seems like the sort of provocation that Putin might be looking for, to justify an attack to the average Russian. And, if there’s no plan to send them into Ukraine then what’s the point? ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2022, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/233 "2022-01-24T21:22:11Z")
New news: > **[DHS warns Russia could launch cyberattack on US](https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/591074-dhs-warn-russia-could-launch-cyberattack-on-us/)** > > The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is warning that Russia may pursue a cyberattack against the U.S. as tensions escalate over Moscow’s buildup of forces near the border with Ukraine.Th… It might be a good time for everyone in the West to update their passwords. ---
**Author:** ![SpacemanSpiff\_II](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e19adc/32.png) [@SpacemanSpiff\_II](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpacemanSpiff_II)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2022, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/234 "2022-01-24T21:26:36Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > In terms of not becoming the trigger for everything to go sideways, threatening sanctions is pretty well the only thing we can do at this point in the equation. Agreed. The point is that there aren’t a lot of good options. > [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > Biden and/or NATO seem to be increasing on that by stationing troops in non-Ukrainian lands near Russia, but I’m not sure that that’s prudent to do. To me it seems like the sort of provocation that Putin might be looking for, to justify an attack to the average Russian. And, if there’s no plan to send them into Ukraine then what’s the point? To show that we Really Mean Business. Countries do this all the time. If you ask me, it’s not just that it’s a provocation that Putin might be looking for. I think Putin is genuinely threatened by the Ukraine cozying up with the West, and were it not for that, we wouldn’t be in this situation. So in that sense, the more the US helps Ukraine, the more motivated Putin is to undo that. I believe this dynamic is why the Obama administration was reluctant to send lethal weapons to Ukraine (until reversed under Trump) and why Ukraine is not currently a member of NATO. ---
**Author:** ![DavidNRockies](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidnrockies/32/6279_2.png) [@DavidNRockies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DavidNRockies)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2022, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/235 "2022-01-24T21:33:43Z")
Rather than re-state a position from last April, I think I still feel exactly this way: > [@Russia may be about to invade Ukraine. {Russia has invaded as of Feb 24-2022}](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine/939699/60): > > I know nothing about sports, but … I feel like Putin is leading off from first base in an effort to let the other team, and – moreso – his fans (Russian citizens) know that he’s prepared to steal second base. And Ukraine probably looks like the best risk/reward equation. But my concern is that it’s mostly a political/nationalism play – something the Soviet Union survived on for decades. Very little else alloyed Nazi Germany like the renewed sense of nationalism of a dog badly beaten in WWI. … ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2022, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/236 "2022-01-24T22:24:33Z")
> [@scabpicker](#): > > And we are supplying them. A shipment of “lethal aid” arrived yesterday, and apparently more is on the way. It’s unclear what exactly is included or planned, but I imagine that’s intentional. Not Canada, though. We’re sending thoughts and prayers. > [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > If Russia takes Ukraine, it’s far more likely that China goes for Taiwan. Perhaps more likely. I would not say FAR more likely. Taking Taiwan is way, way harder a task. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2022, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/237 "2022-01-24T23:08:31Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Perhaps more likely. I would not say FAR more likely. Taking Taiwan is way, way harder a task. China has no shortage of manpower to throw on the pyre and thousands of years of history of seeing that as a legitimate strategy. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2022, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/238 "2022-01-24T23:49:30Z")
Interesting map showing estimated positions of Russian forces. After Putin helped dampen the Belarusian protests it looks like he was quick to call in the favour. [![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FJ28XtuXMAQ8HIN?format=jpg&name=large) ](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FJ28XtuXMAQ8HIN?format=jpg&name=large) ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2022, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/239 "2022-01-25T00:42:06Z")
> [@Drsunflower1](#): > > Except they won’t. China won’t stand for that. Vote China off the island too. ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2022, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/240 "2022-01-25T00:47:22Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > > [@scabpicker](#): > > > > And we are supplying them. A shipment of “lethal aid” arrived yesterday, and apparently more is on the way. It’s unclear what exactly is included or planned, but I imagine that’s intentional. > > Not Canada, though. We’re sending thoughts and prayers. Dangit, I knew you were Canadian but it somehow slipped my mind. Sorry about that. In regard to what Putin’s potential goals are and how each scenario might play out, the Center For Strategic and International studies has the most thorough treatment I’ve seen. Even though none of their scenarios match up with what I think is the most likely goal (access to Crimea), it does consider the options if Russia is willing to commit more troops to the conflict. > **[Russia’s Possible Invasion of Ukraine](https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-possible-invasion-ukraine)** > > If peace talks fail, the Russian military has several options to invade Ukraine through northern, central, and southern routes, raising critical questions for the United States and its NATO allies according to analysis by the CSIS International... [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699.md?page=13)