# Russia may be about to invade Ukraine. {Russia has invaded as of Feb 24-2022} **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [April 9, 2021, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699 "2021-04-09T20:11:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 14
**Author:** ![Slithy\_Tove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slithy_tove/32/18248_2.png) [@Slithy\_Tove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slithy_Tove)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2022, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/261 "2022-01-26T15:32:06Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > Even in the worst case scenario (from the Russian point of view), we’d just be back to the Cold War II. AFAIK we were never considering an invasion of the Soviet Union during the Cold War, for obvious reasons. The West sat on their side of the line while the USSR/Warsaw Pact clobbered Hungary in 1956, and Czechoslovakia in 1968. The West showed it respected that line, and any disputation of that fact only came from the USSR’s “metal-eaters alliance” (their military-industrial complex) as self-serving rhetoric. I predict that Putin will accept a deal whereby Ukraine is blackballed from NATO, but Ukraine stays on the West’s side of the line. The West gets them as their problem, corrupt government and past-due gas bills and all. American factory farm corporations take over, and Ukrainian farmers aren’t allowed to fix their own John Deeres any more than Iowan farmers are. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2022, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/262 "2022-01-26T15:53:03Z")
> [@Chad\_Sudan](#): > > You know, the more I think about how this crisis would be playing out under the last US administration… the less I want to think about it. Here’s a small glimpse of what that might have looked like. > **[Marjorie Taylor Greene on GETTR : Ukraine has the dirt on Joe Biden and he’s...](https://gettr.com/post/pqjhtm76bb)** > > Ukraine has the dirt on Joe Biden and he’s willing to go to war over it. IMPEACH. CONVICT. REMOVE. #ImpeachBiden @WarRoom That’s an interview with MTG in which she talks about why she thinks Biden is siding with Ukraine. Yes, it involves Hunter Biden. The good news is that it seems we’re past the old capitalism vs. communism thing. The bad news is that we’re now in the authoritarianism vs. democracy stage of world conflict. ---
**Author:** ![Chad\_Sudan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chad_sudan/32/4509_2.png) [@Chad\_Sudan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chad_Sudan)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2022, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/263 "2022-01-26T16:18:54Z")
> [@Slithy\_Tove](#): > > I predict that Putin will accept a deal whereby Ukraine is blackballed from NATO, but Ukraine stays on the West’s side of the line. Honestly, if we could defuse this crisis just by pledging to forever exclude Ukraine from NATO… I’d support making that pledge. Because currently, we are **free** to give all kinds of military support to Ukraine, but we are not **obliged** to treat an attack on Ukraine as an attack on the US. And in the specific case of Ukraine, that’s where we should remain. (But I actually don’t think such a concession would be enough for Putin.) ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2022, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/264 "2022-01-26T16:49:16Z")
> [@Chad\_Sudan](#): > > Honestly, if we could defuse this crisis just by pledging to forever exclude Ukraine from NATO… I’d support making that pledge. I really hope there’s a diplomatic solution like that. I don’t care if Ukraine is in NATO. I just don’t want Russia invading independent democracies, but so far, unfortunately NATO seems to be the only successful organ to guarantee that sort of thing. My fear is that Putin knows that in an election year, Biden isn’t going to risk any pre-emptive military action to oppose Russia. Russia is going to roll through, establish naval bases on the Black Sea, and park military formations on the Polish border. We’ll be in a dramatically more dangerous security situation. It will definitely cost Democrats in 2022 and 2024, and Russia is very likely to get a Republican president who is willing to say “you know what, fuck NATO, just help yourself to whatever seems fair.” American politics isn’t the center of everything, but I have to think it’s factoring into this situation to _some_extent. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2022, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/265 "2022-01-26T16:57:11Z")
> [@Chad\_Sudan](#): > > Honestly, if we could defuse this crisis just by pledging to forever exclude Ukraine from NATO… I’d support making that pledge. > > Because currently, we are **free** to give all kinds of military support to Ukraine, but we are not **obliged** to treat an attack on Ukraine as an attack on the US. And in the specific case of Ukraine, that’s where we should remain. > > **(But I actually don’t think such a concession would be enough for Putin.)** I agree that wouldn’t be enough for Putin. From what I understand, wasn’t that pretty much what the situation actually was prior to this recent Russian threat? ---
**Author:** ![Chad\_Sudan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chad_sudan/32/4509_2.png) [@Chad\_Sudan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chad_Sudan)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2022, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/266 "2022-01-26T17:04:51Z")
Well, in 2008, Ukraine started moving toward membership in NATO. The process was interrupted in 2010 when a more Russian-leaning politician became president. NATO has an “open door policy” that any European democracy has the right to apply for membership and that no outside country should have a veto on that. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2022, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/267 "2022-01-26T17:05:30Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > That’s an interview with MTG in which she talks about why she thinks Biden is siding with Ukraine. She’ll have to step up her sedition and lunacy games if she wants to keep up with Tuckyo Rose’s show. ---
**Author:** ![SpacemanSpiff\_II](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e19adc/32.png) [@SpacemanSpiff\_II](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpacemanSpiff_II)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2022, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/268 "2022-01-26T17:24:22Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > I agree that wouldn’t be enough for Putin. From what I understand, wasn’t that pretty much what the situation actually was prior to this recent Russian threat? No, it wasn’t. In fact, the refusal of NATO to pledge that Ukraine never joins is actually a key point of disagreement at this time. [Russia digs in on Ukraine never joining NATO, on a day of talks with the U.S. : NPR](https://www.npr.org/2022/01/10/1071880010/russia-us-ukraine-nato-join) ETA: one problem NATO has at this time is that by agreeing to ban Ukraine now would be effectively giving Russia veto power over NATO membership. So even if NATO was unlikely to take Ukraine in anyway, they are reluctant to commit to it in the face of Russian saber-rattling. Meanwhile, the Russians view this from the opposite perspective. ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2022, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/269 "2022-01-26T17:26:06Z")
“We pledge that Ukraine will never be a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.” (two days later) “We have dissolved the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and formed the New Antiauthoritarian Treaty Alliance and we welcome Ukraine’s membership.” ---
**Author:** ![SpacemanSpiff\_II](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e19adc/32.png) [@SpacemanSpiff\_II](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpacemanSpiff_II)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2022, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/270 "2022-01-26T17:28:53Z")
(two days later): Russia invades Ukraine … I don’t think you can accomplish anything realistic with that type of semantics. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2022, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/271 "2022-01-26T17:32:54Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > I don’t agree with anything Russia does, it’s highly irresponsible bordering on lunacy. It’s never justifiable to start a war. But I do agree that having NATO parked on their border seems excessively destabilizing to me. (No I don’t have a good answer, I don’t know that there are any). Russia was participating in NATO operations and training sessions, and was a co-head of a subgroup within the organization. NATO stopped being an anti-Russia force after the collapse of the Soviet Union. It only resumed that status when Russia decided that it liked being the enemy of the world, rather than a friend. I suspect that, if Putin had simply continued to increase trade, visa acceptance, etc. between his country and Ukraine, the two countries would have progressively gotten closer and inseparable. Instead, his approach was like a guy who likes a girl, so he pushes her against the wall and tries to stick his tongue down her throat. He completely destroyed his future prospects. Russia could have continued to climb higher in NATO and continued to join on, helping to keep peace across the planet. None of Russia’s fall from grace had anything to do with anyone else. Putin just flushed it all down the toilet because he prefers to be the only guy in power. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2022, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/272 "2022-01-26T17:37:19Z")
> [@Chad\_Sudan](#): > > If Russia now invades Ukraine, what lesson does that send to small states that have, or want, nuclear weapons? “Never ever let the Great Powers try to de-nuclearize you.” As your cite mentions, that ship sailed in 2014. Russia’s response was “It’s a different country now and therefore the agreement doesn’t count, and also No U.” > [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > Russia: “Look what you’re making us do!” Also a popular tactic by Russia. Because they know that it doesn’t matter if anyone likes them, as long as they get what they want. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2022, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/273 "2022-01-26T17:39:22Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > Putin just flushed it all down the toilet because he prefers to be the only guy in power. It’s probably to do with his continued desire to enrich himself and his buddies. ---
**Author:** ![SpacemanSpiff\_II](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e19adc/32.png) [@SpacemanSpiff\_II](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpacemanSpiff_II)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2022, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/274 "2022-01-26T18:15:28Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > NATO stopped being an anti-Russia force after the collapse of the Soviet Union. > > It only resumed that status when Russia decided that it liked being the enemy of the world, rather than a friend. I’m not sure this is true. NATO is dominated by countries who have viewpoints which can be antithetical to Russian views and interests. One major example of this is the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia, a conflict in which the Russians were allied with their ethnic Slavic kinsmen, the Serbs, and which post-dated the collapse of the Soviet Union. NATO’s attitude was not especially interested with Russian concerns and they proceeded to crush and flatten the Serbs. From the perspective of a Westerner who thinks “hey, the Serbs were _wrong_”, well that might not seem like much of anything. But from the perspective of Russians who viewed that conflict differently, that could be very threatening. ---
**Author:** ![OldOlds](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a3d4f5/32.png) [@OldOlds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldOlds)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2022, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/275 "2022-01-26T18:47:30Z")
And something that seems lost on Putin, but certainly is in play here: All those nations in eastern Europe didn’t run to the EU and NATO’s arms because of the decades of respect shown them by the Soviet Union. You spend 40 years with your boot on Hungary’s neck and big surprise, they run into the arms of another. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2022, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/276 "2022-01-26T19:15:11Z")
> [@SpacemanSpiff\_II](#): > > I’m not sure this is true. NATO is dominated by countries who have viewpoints which can be antithetical to Russian views and interests. > > One major example of this is the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia, a conflict in which the Russians were allied with their ethnic Slavic kinsmen, the Serbs, and which post-dated the collapse of the Soviet Union. NATO’s attitude was not especially interested with Russian concerns and they proceeded to crush and flatten the Serbs. It is possible that Clinton made a poor choice, there. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2022, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/277 "2022-01-26T19:43:00Z")
> [@SpacemanSpiff\_II](#): > > No, it wasn’t. In fact, the refusal of NATO to pledge that Ukraine never joins is actually a key point of disagreement at this time. I thought the bigger issue is that Russia is demanding that NATO kick out Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Poland, which of course NATO isn’t going to do. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2022, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/278 "2022-01-26T19:52:10Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > I thought the bigger issue is that Russia is demanding that NATO kick out Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Poland, which of course NATO isn’t going to do. Russia knows that isn’t happening. All that stuff is just going through the motions of “diplomacy”, however laughably transparent it may be. ---
**Author:** ![SpacemanSpiff\_II](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e19adc/32.png) [@SpacemanSpiff\_II](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpacemanSpiff_II)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2022, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/279 "2022-01-26T19:59:06Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > I thought the bigger issue is that Russia is demanding that NATO kick out Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Poland, which of course NATO isn’t going to do. I am not aware of this supposed Russian demand. Perhaps you have some sort of cite for this. But in any event, the NPR article that I linked said that guaranteeing that Ukraine never joins NATO was a key Russian demand, and one that NATO refused to accede to. This contradicts your claim that “that [was] pretty much what the situation actually was prior to this recent Russian threat”. (Unless your claim is that NATO changed its stance on this in response to the Russian threat?) ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2022, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/280 "2022-01-26T20:14:24Z")
Not a cite for ejecting the former Soviet states, but effectively neutering NATO in them: > [@](#): > > It’s also - wants a ban on troop deployments to Eastern Europe without Russian consent, with an additional caveat that the alliance would be prohibited from increasing troop numbers past those of 1997. That’s before NATO expanded into Eastern Europe - so in effect, bans NATO from deploying forces in former communist member states like Poland, the Czech Republic and the Baltic States. And I suppose if you’re looking for a positive note here, the proposals call for both sides to agree that neither considers the other an adversary or would consider use of military force. But that’s an awfully hard idea to swallow given the demands before it, as well as the fact that we have a hundred thousand Russian troops near Ukraine’s border as we speak. > **[Russia demands Ukraine and other ex-Soviet republics be barred from joining NATO](https://www.npr.org/2021/12/17/1065111430/russia-demands-ukraine-and-other-ex-soviet-republics-be-barred-from-joining-nato)** > > Russia's government has released demands regarding security guarantees for Europe. The list, handed to a U.S. envoy in Moscow, amounts to a do-over of European history since the end of the Cold War. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699.md?page=13) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699.md?page=15)