# Russia may be about to invade Ukraine. {Russia has invaded as of Feb 24-2022} **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [April 9, 2021, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699 "2021-04-09T20:11:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 23
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2022, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/441 "2022-02-14T14:23:41Z")
> [@GreenWyvern](#): > > Um… you still haven’t realised that most of the population of Crimea is ethnically and culturally Russian, and strongly _wants_ to be part of Russia, not Ukraine? Umm, you realize that large portions of the Donbass region are similar, right? Or do you consider that insignificant if Russia decides to take it? ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2022, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/442 "2022-02-14T14:25:30Z")
> [@GreenWyvern](#): > > I see both Russian propaganda and American propaganda. Ah, so we’re at “both sides” now. Brilliant piece of analysis there. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2022, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/443 "2022-02-14T14:25:56Z")
I was replying to your point that ‘Russia took Crimea with 20-30K troops’, and explaining why that was the case. It was an entirely different situation from a major invasion of Ukraine. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2022, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/444 "2022-02-14T14:29:14Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > Ah, so we’re at “both sides” now. Brilliant piece of analysis there. Do you seriously believe that America never uses propaganda and false information? What about the WMD in Iraq? What about the Gulf of Tonkin incident that was used to justify the war in Vietnam, that Robert McNamara eventually admitted never happened? ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2022, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/445 "2022-02-14T14:31:57Z")
Ok, so now you’re only saying they won’t have a “major” invasion? You believe a smaller invasion is any less bad? I’d say it would be worse, since he actually does seem to enough troops in the area to grab the Donbass and possibly go so far as getting land access to Crimea. I’m not saying Russia doing that is a certainty, but they seem to have plenty of troops in the area to accomplish that if they decided that was their goal. They took Crimea with far less, and the population of most of the area seems to be of a similar political bent. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2022, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/446 "2022-02-14T14:34:24Z")
> [@scabpicker](#): > > Ok, so now you’re only saying they won’t have a “major” invasion? You believe a smaller invasion is any less bad? Kindly don’t put words in my mouth or distort what I’m saying to suit yourself. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2022, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/447 "2022-02-14T14:35:14Z")
> [@GreenWyvern](#): > > Do you seriously believe that America never uses propaganda and false information? What about the WMD in Iraq? …and now you’ve slipped from “both sides” to “whatabout” while challenging me to defend a strawman. Very weak tea. ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2022, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/448 "2022-02-14T14:36:57Z")
> [@GreenWyvern](#): > > Kindly don’t put words in my mouth or distort what I’m saying to suit yourself. If you use the word, I can hardly be accused of putting it there. Additionally, it was a question. > [@GreenWyvern](#): > > It was an entirely different situation from a major invasion of Ukraine. ---
**Author:** ![SpacemanSpiff\_II](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e19adc/32.png) [@SpacemanSpiff\_II](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpacemanSpiff_II)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2022, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/449 "2022-02-14T15:16:26Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > Russia has a lot of land already. I’m not sure if adding a tiny bit of land is the actual goal. Not all land is equally valuable. Huge amounts of land in Siberia don’t equal much smaller amounts in Europe. Location, location, location. > [@Dinsdale](#): > > I’m trying to figure how bad it would be for the West to actually launch missiles/drop bombs. And should the engagement occur within Ukraine or in Russia? Russia would have to attack a NATO country before that happens. > [@RickJay](#): > > The Soviet occupation of Eastern Europe went pretty smoothly, to be honest. The flareups in Hungary and Czechoslovakia were swiftly contained. There was, otherwise, no significant resistance at all. Fundamental difference is that Communism as an ideology had considerable appeal in Eastern Europe, and people looking to the SU as the leaders of the Cummunist world might favor them. In this case, there are no ideological reasons for anyone to favor being invaded by Russia. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2022, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/450 "2022-02-14T15:23:36Z")
> [@GreenWyvern](#): > > Do you seriously believe that America never uses propaganda and false information? What about the WMD in Iraq? What about the Gulf of Tonkin incident that was used to justify the war in Vietnam, that Robert McNamara eventually admitted never happened? These are very different things than the Russian military buildup near Ukraine. The “WMDs in Iraq” were based off of extremely flimsy evidence. But the Russian buildup is plain as day. Satellite images show massive concentrations of Russian troops, tanks, fuel, artillery, supplies, etc. on Ukraine’s borders. None of that is imaginary or made-up. It’s seen plainly with the eyes. And it’s not just U.S. intelligence saying this. All other nations’ intel agencies - France, Sweden, UK, Poland, etc. - show the exact same thing: Russia is massing a large army for a possible invasion. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2022, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/451 "2022-02-14T15:25:52Z")
> [@SpacemanSpiff\_II](#): > > Not all land is equally valuable. Huge amounts of land in Siberia don’t equal much smaller amounts in Europe. Location, location, location. Russia has more land in Europe than any other European country. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2022, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/452 "2022-02-14T15:34:32Z")
If Russia launches a wholesale invasion, I wonder if Ukraine would consider responding with a suicide mission to punch Russia in the mouth a la Doolittle’s raid on Tokyo. If Russia goes all out, Ukraine will be decimated anyway; why not send all of their air forces against a vulnerable target in Russia like a nuclear power plant? Even if 95% of their aircraft were shot down, a large enough strike force might be able to penetrate air defenses to deliver a smart bomb on a reactor. It beats letting their air force be destroyed on the ground. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2022, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/453 "2022-02-14T15:50:46Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > Russia has more land in Europe than any other European country. Everybody should stop with the specious arguments about whether Russia does or doesn’t need “land”. It’s like saying that 9/11 was about denying the use of commercial real estate. Though it did have that effect, that’s was never the primary intent. The Ukraine conflict isn’t about agriculture or habitable area. This is about Russia’s desire for a certain security footprint, but more importantly, the settlement of historical revanchist grievances. Ukraine is a non-fungible goal here, there is no substitute. That’s why Russia deployed over half their maneuver forces to the border, and when asked to back down, gave a list of utterly unserious demands. ---
**Author:** ![Chad\_Sudan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chad_sudan/32/4509_2.png) [@Chad\_Sudan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chad_Sudan)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2022, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/454 "2022-02-14T15:55:45Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > If Russia launches a wholesale invasion, I wonder if Ukraine would consider responding with a suicide mission to punch Russia in the mouth a la Doolittle’s raid on Tokyo. If Russia goes all out, Ukraine will be decimated anyway; why not send all of their air forces against a vulnerable target in Russia like a nuclear power plant? I’ve also been wondering about the Ukrainians’ last-resort options. In the end, it seems to me that “suicide missions” are just not worth it. If Ukraine bombs Russia or goes after Putin personally, they will only get hit 10 times harder. But you raise a good point – how _should_ the Ukrainians best fight a war they cannot win? ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2022, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/455 "2022-02-14T16:14:04Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > The “WMDs in Iraq” were based off of extremely flimsy evidence. But the Russian buildup is plain as day. Satellite images show massive concentrations of Russian troops, tanks, fuel, artillery, supplies, etc. on Ukraine’s borders. None of that is imaginary or made-up. It’s seen plainly with the eyes. The one thing that I’m curious about - that no one seems to be interested in reporting on - is that the troops are there “officially” for the purpose of running some fake, practice campaigns for training purposes. Well so…are they practicing? Are they just sitting there, staring at the border? Are they building rocket launchers, pointed at Ukraine? This seems like something that the news should be able to tell us. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2022, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/456 "2022-02-14T16:21:11Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > Well so…are they practicing? Are they just sitting there, staring at the border? That’s what about 99% of the soldiers in the world actually do, anyway, so, yeah, time well spent. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2022, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/457 "2022-02-14T16:30:35Z")
Well, if that’s the case then invasion is inevitable. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2022, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/458 "2022-02-14T16:31:28Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > Russia does or doesn’t need “land”. It’s like saying that 9/11 was about denying the use of commercial real estate. Though it did have that effect, that’s was never the primary intent. > > The Ukraine conflict isn’t about agriculture or habitable area. This is about Russia’s desire for a certain security footprint, but more importantly, the settlement of historical revanchist grievances. Ukraine is a non-fungible goal here, there is no substitute. Well so, let’s say that there’s a big oil deposit just below Mongolia. Do you think that Russia would want to take ownership of that land or no? Or, let’s say that North-East Turkey was rich in uranium. Think that Russia would be sending them messages, “Hey man, we just want the uranium, but you can keep the land”? Or they’d try to take ownership of the land on top of the uranium? A military takes land. If you just want a particular material, you can buy the right to it, through a contract. If you want to give your citizens an easy trip to the beaches of the Black Sea, you can form visa pacts for easy travel; you can get permission to build a bridge from the other government; and you can form strong political ties of trust and mutual support. A military takes land. You use the military when what you want is occupation of that particular piece of dirt, because you’re not willing to share. You’re not willing to just have the uranium, you’re not willing to just be able to go there, freely. You want to own it all. ---
**Author:** ![SpacemanSpiff\_II](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e19adc/32.png) [@SpacemanSpiff\_II](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpacemanSpiff_II)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2022, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/459 "2022-02-14T16:34:48Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > Russia has more land in Europe than any other European country. Technically. But Ukraine is a lot closer to the heart of things and has coastline etc. I believe there are strategic reasons for Ukrainian land to be valuable to Russia. Which is not to say that’s necessarily the primary Putin goal here. My point was just that saying “Russia has an enormous amount of land already” doesn’t even begin to address the land angle. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2022, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/460 "2022-02-14T16:51:26Z")
> [@GreenWyvern](#): > > Meanwhile Ukraine is saying, ‘If you really think they’re going to invade in few days, perhaps you could share some your intelligence with us, because we don’t know anything about it’. Not share it with them? It’s all over the place and very public. We’re here discussing the numbers of troops Russia has deployed, their location, how they’re getting ready to go on maneuvers in the next few days, and so on. We got that information from CNN, the BBC, the New York Times, our local paper, etc, not because some hacker released top secret Pentagon intelligence. I assume the Ukrainian generals have access to the same information. > [@GreenWyvern](#): > > Do you seriously believe that America never uses propaganda and false information? What about the WMD in Iraq? What about the Gulf of Tonkin incident that was used to justify the war in Vietnam, that Robert McNamara eventually admitted never happened? I’m not old enough to remember the Gulf of Tonkin. The WMD in Iraq was an obvious lie, even at that time. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699.md?page=22) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699.md?page=24)