# Russia may be about to invade Ukraine. {Russia has invaded as of Feb 24-2022} **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [April 9, 2021, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699 "2021-04-09T20:11:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 30
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2022, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/581 "2022-02-17T15:43:20Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > I’m not going to be focusing on any of it. Clearly, that’s the case. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2022, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/582 "2022-02-17T16:23:44Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > For those insisting that only the US and NATO are beating the war drum ,[Pravda reports Kremlin spokesman stating that Ukraine is intensifying military provocation:](https://english.pravda.ru/news/hotspots/150353-donetsk_ukraine/) > > > [@](#): > > > > Over the past 24 hours, we have heard reports saying that Russia has retained a huge strike potential on the border, but it goes about the territory of our own. Yet, **no one, not a single Western representative** , talks about the huge strike potential of the Ukrainian armed forces on the demarcation line. Coupled with provocative actions that have only intensified in the last day or several days, this is a very, very dangerous situation,” Putin’s official spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. Putin is probably rummaging through the speeches of a former Soviet ally for material to use the day Russia invades Ukraine in the face of “provocation”. I’ve substituted “Ukraine” and “Russia” where necessary. “…there is nothing more modest or loyal than these proposals… These proposals have been refused. Not only were they answered first with mobilization, but with increased terror and pressure against our (Russian) compatriots… (Ukraine) was not prepared to settle the…question in a reasonable way… I made one more final effort to accept a proposal for mediation… For two whole days I sat with my Government and waited to see whether it was convenient for the (Russian) Government to send a plenipotentiary or not…But I am wrongly judged if my love of peace and my patience are mistaken for weakness or even cowardice… These proposals for mediation have failed…” “…This night for the first time (Ukrainian) regular soldiers fired on our territory. Since 5.45 A.M. we have been returning the fire, and from now on bombs will be met by bombs.” - Adolf Hitler, September 1, 1939 ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2022, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/583 "2022-02-17T16:34:15Z")
> [@Jackmannii](#): > > Putin is probably rummaging through the speeches of a former Soviet ally for material to use the day Russia invades Ukraine in the face of “provocation”. You don’t even have to go back that far, they used pretty much the exact same verbiage the _last_ time they invaded Crimea. It’s SouthPark’s old “Uncle Jimbo” defense… before you shoot the protected species, say the magic words “they’re coming right for us!” and then do as you please. ---
**Author:** ![SpacemanSpiff\_II](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e19adc/32.png) [@SpacemanSpiff\_II](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpacemanSpiff_II)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2022, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/584 "2022-02-17T16:49:29Z")
Article from the New Yorker about the limited deterance impact of Western sanctions. [Why the Threat of More Economic Sanctions May Not Deter Vladimir Putin (outline.com)](https://outline.com/kqzczU) ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2022, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/585 "2022-02-17T17:37:30Z")
I, for one, like the idea that ownership be solved by the ability to take and hold. > **[Vladivostok Lures Chinese Tourists (Many Think It’s Theirs) (Published 2016)](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/24/world/asia/vladivostok-china-haishenwai-tourists.html)** > > Nearly all Chinese who visit a city whose Russian name means “master of the East” think Vladivostok should be called Haishenwai, the name it had when China ruled. > **[Dangers Of Building Ultra Patriotism As Chinese Claim Vladivostok As...](https://www.russia-briefing.com/news/dangers-building-ultra-patriotism-chinese-claim-vladivostok-haishenwai.html/)** > > Op/Ed by Chris Devonshire-Ellis The difficulties of instilling a deep rooted “Love China” campaign, and how that can sometimes backfire has come to the fore of the Communist Party of China in recent times. Ultra nationalism, coupled with a large... ---
**Author:** ![Paul\_was\_in\_Saudi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/b77776/32.png) [@Paul\_was\_in\_Saudi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paul_was_in_Saudi)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2022, 10:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/586 "2022-02-18T10:22:53Z")
I have seen footage of the Russian embassy in Ukraine. They are burning documents. ---
**Author:** ![OldOlds](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a3d4f5/32.png) [@OldOlds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldOlds)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2022, 12:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/587 "2022-02-18T12:12:32Z")
I heard the claim made recently that the reason the US and its allies are being so unusually candid about the intelligence they have is that it keeps Putin off-balance. According to this idea, Putin knows its true, and so he can’t “do that thing” and prove the west right. I guess I just wondered whether anyone has any thoughts on that, or is knowledgeable enough about diplomacy to comment on whether that’s likely true/effective. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2022, 12:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/588 "2022-02-18T12:23:40Z")
Really? I don’t see this mentioned anywhere. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2022, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/589 "2022-02-18T13:59:48Z")
> [@OldOlds](#): > > I heard the claim made recently that the reason the US and its allies are being so unusually candid about the intelligence they have is that it keeps Putin off-balance. According to this idea, Putin knows its true, and so he can’t “do that thing” and prove the west right. This is very clearly what has been happening. Russia have now decided to perform some ballistic and cruise missile launches this weekend, to be personally overseen by Putin. A very clear, “don’t forget we are a nuclear power” message. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2022, 2:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/590 "2022-02-18T14:13:23Z")
> [@OldOlds](#): > > I heard the claim made recently that the reason the US and its allies are being so unusually candid about the intelligence they have is that it keeps Putin off-balance. According to this idea, Putin knows its true, and so he can’t “do that thing” and prove the west right. > > I guess I just wondered whether anyone has any thoughts on that, or is knowledgeable enough about diplomacy to comment on whether that’s likely true/effective. That’s plausible, but it’s also possible that at a certain point Putin will just say screw it and go ahead and do whatever it is he plans to do. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2022, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/591 "2022-02-18T14:51:05Z")
From the BBC: > People in the rebel-held city of Donetsk, in eastern Ukraine, will be evacuated to Russia, the area’s leader has said. > > Denis Pushilin, who is head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR), announced on social media that Russia had agreed to provide accommodation for people leaving. > … > > The US and its allies have raised concerns that rising violence in the Donbas region could form part of a Russian pretext to invade Ukraine. > > Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that he has seen a “deterioration of the situation” in eastern Ukraine. > > Speaking at a news conference in the Kremlin, Putin made unsubstantiated accusations of “mass and systematic violation of human rights” and enshrining in law “discrimination of the Russian speaking population” in Ukraine. Looks like Russia is setting up the pretext of human rights violations and this looks like part of it. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2022, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/592 "2022-02-18T15:24:23Z")
> [@OldOlds](#): > > I guess I just wondered whether anyone has any thoughts on that, or is knowledgeable enough about diplomacy to comment on whether that’s likely true/effective. Not sure how effective it is or will be, but clearly that’s what we are doing. Basically, you have a general idea…we publish intel data to the media, and Putin et al see that we see what they are doing. It’s also going to make any attempt at Russia trying a surprise attack because of ‘genocide’ or whatever to fall flat. At this point, if Russia attacks everyone will have seen it coming and will know they have deliberately caused this situation. Whether that will give Putin pause is another question. Personally, I’d say something has stopped them…so far…and this is as plausible a reason as any (I think the possibility of sanctions before Russia got alternatives in place also helped). Putin only has a small window to do this effectively. If he waits until spring then Europe is likely to go all-in on energy sanctions, the ones that would hurt Russia the most. All of this assumes this hasn’t been some sort of elaborate fake-out or game, though I have to say if that was the original plan that, too, failed as it doesn’t seem to have had the effect Russia was looking for, at least IMHO. I can’t see how they gained anything with this, not since maybe January or even December when the impact was greatest and the chance of real concessions highest. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2022, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/593 "2022-02-18T15:26:45Z")
> [@Frodo](#): > > Really? I don’t see this mentioned anywhere. I was actually almost a week ago now, but there are tons of articles on it. This was the first hit I got on Google from [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/international/594193-us-embassy-in-kyiv-destroy-documents-as-drawdown-underway) if you want to read a bit about it. I’ll just quote the headline so as not to bring down Mod wrath: # US Embassy in Kyiv destroying documents as drawdown underway ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2022, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/594 "2022-02-18T15:29:40Z")
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#): > > Looks like Russia is setting up the pretext of human rights violations and this looks like part of it. Yeah, this has been his tact for a while now, but he’s really been hitting hard on the human rights violations and ‘genocide’ angle in the past week or so. There is still fighting going on in the breakaway areas, and I saw a report that Russian-backed rebels hit a town this week (I can’t recall if it was a nursing home or a school for nurses…it was something like that). ---
**Author:** ![Chingon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chingon/32/17645_2.png) [@Chingon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chingon)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2022, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/595 "2022-02-18T16:16:54Z")
Well shit ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2022, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/596 "2022-02-18T16:29:56Z")
Thanks! I thought it was happening right now and didn’t see it mentioned in “current events” headlines anywhere. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2022, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/597 "2022-02-18T16:31:07Z")
On second thought, that’s for the _US_ embassy, **Paul** said it was the _Russian_ embassy. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2022, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/598 "2022-02-18T17:05:18Z")
lol, you are right. And all of the articles are on that, so…no idea where the Russians destroying documents thingy is coming from. Sorry about that. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2022, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/599 "2022-02-18T17:20:53Z")
The US embassy doing it is worrying, the _Russian_ embassy doing it would be down right terrifying. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2022, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/600 "2022-02-18T17:32:39Z")
I’m assuming any country shutting down/pulling out of it’s Ukrainian embassy would be burning/destroying stuff. It’s SOP. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699.md?page=29) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699.md?page=31)