# Russia may be about to invade Ukraine. {Russia has invaded as of Feb 24-2022} **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [April 9, 2021, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699 "2021-04-09T20:11:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 34
**Author:** ![KidCharlemagne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed8c4c/32.png) [@KidCharlemagne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KidCharlemagne)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2022, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/661 "2022-02-20T17:39:17Z")
While I think the Five Eyes could tell if Putin is bluffing, I don’t think they could accurately determine whether he’s not. Putin is wily enough to know that if the West needs to believe it’s not a bluff to cry uncle on NATO concessions, then he’s going to do everything to make it look like an imminent invasion, including making his own generals possibly believe it. Having said that, one group of Russia analysts did a semantic analysis of state media now vs before the invasion of Crimea. Prior to invasion of Crimea, state media was swamped with hostile coverage of Crimea, but that is not happening with Ukraine now. Instead the vitriol has recently shifted to NATO. They seem to think it means he’s bluffing, but I would think it supports the pretext that this isn’t a war against the Ukrainian people, but a war against western incursion. Another analyst has noted that Putin was unusually isolated during Covid and has recently made a number of uncharacteristic moves. They conclude his mental state is deteriorating. I’m reminded of the time he stole Robert Kraft’s super bowl ring and a glass Kalishnikov from a US museum. I’m wondering if this is his kelptomania writ large. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lantern2/32/3010_2.png) [@Lantern2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern2)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2022, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/662 "2022-02-20T18:22:22Z")
> [@KidCharlemagne](#): > > . I’m reminded of the time he stole Robert Kraft’s super bowl ring and a glass Kalishnikov from a US museum. I’m wondering if this is his kelptomania writ large. Man, I didn’t know about these stories. Maybe I have overestimated his rationality… Although you could interpret them as him being thuggish but rational since he knows he can get away with it. ---
**Author:** ![Paul\_was\_in\_Saudi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/b77776/32.png) [@Paul\_was\_in\_Saudi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paul_was_in_Saudi)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2022, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/663 "2022-02-20T19:28:10Z")
We need to let it slip that our source on Russian plans is a person in the Kremlin. Much excitement would result. Of course if we do have a spy in the Kremlin, we ought to let it slip we are reading their internal transmissions because of a Chinese bug in the software. Either way would be fun. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2022, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/664 "2022-02-20T20:54:12Z")
> [@Chad\_Sudan](#): > > Think for a moment what it means to try to force **700,000** people out of their settled lives and make them refugees. Think of the elderly with their infirmities. Doctors and others with vital jobs. Those with pets. > > A [photo in the New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/19/world/europe/ukraine-russia-missiles-putin.html) shows some of these refugees now in Russia, living on crammed-together army bunk beds in Quonset huts. Well, heck, they evacuated 49,000 out of one city back in 1986, it’s not like they have no practice at this sort of thing. I wonder if the current refugees, like the people of Pripyat, have been promised they can return home one day? ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2022, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/665 "2022-02-20T22:43:16Z")
Biden convenes NSC in rare Sunday meeting, believes Putin has already given the “go” order. Russian motor pools empty of armor, many Russian vessels in the Black Sea off of Odessa. It really appears like Putin’s just going to repeat his obvious historical pattern of invading immediately after the Olympics. It’s a tragic, sad, alarming situation all around. I’m still hoping for a last minute miracle, but as I’ve been saying all along, that’s very unlikely. Putin’s mobilization here was too costly & conspicuous for him to do anything else than invade. This action was all but predetermined from the beginning. ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2022, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/666 "2022-02-20T23:24:17Z")
> [@KidCharlemagne](#): > > Prior to invasion of Crimea, state media was swamped with hostile coverage of Crimea, but that is not happening with Ukraine now. Unfortunately, I’ve heard the opposite. Putin is pushing the narrative that ethnic Russians are being killed in Ukraine in a “genocide”. > **[Russia, in report to U.N., again accuses Ukraine of 'genocide' amid shelling...](https://theweek.com/russia/1010313/russia-in-report-to-un-again-accuses-ukraine-of-genocide-amid-shelling-in-donbas)** > > The latest Speed Read,/speed-reads,,speed-reads, breaking news, comment, reviews and features from the experts at The Week ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2022, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/667 "2022-02-21T01:48:08Z")
That’s what I’ve been thinking all along, that given the state of the Russian economy right now, the uncertainty about the Nordstream, the reliance of Europe on Russian natural gas for heat, etc that just mobilizing all this men and materiel would be astonishingly expensive for a brinksmanship charade with NATO. The narrative that Putin, a former USSR intel man himself, is trying to reshape his immediate surroundings into some sort of loosely united, buffer puppet states resembling the former USSR is fairly compelling. Whatever the case, yet another war in Europe is a disastrous outcome for the world in so many ways, not to mention the Chinese watching our response(s) with great interest as they eye a similar plan for Taiwan. We could literally be close to fighting a war on two fronts, and that’s super scary for the USA and it’s allies. ---
**Author:** ![Paul\_was\_in\_Saudi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/b77776/32.png) [@Paul\_was\_in\_Saudi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paul_was_in_Saudi)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2022, 12:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/668 "2022-02-21T12:19:26Z")
> [@Frodo](#): > > On second thought, that’s for the _US_ embassy, **Paul** said it was the _Russian_ embassy. Mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2022, 12:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/669 "2022-02-21T12:39:18Z")
You scared me man! 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Paul\_was\_in\_Saudi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/b77776/32.png) [@Paul\_was\_in\_Saudi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paul_was_in_Saudi)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2022, 1:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/670 "2022-02-21T13:00:28Z")
[Russia Today has reported](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/21/russia-says-border-facility-near-ukraine-destroyed-in-shell-attack-a76487) that a Russian border post has been shelled. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2022, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/671 "2022-02-21T18:19:35Z")
So Putin is going to announce something “of international relevance” very soon, apparently he’s going to recognize the independence of the breakaway "people’s republics’ from Ukraine. Prediction: This is what he wanted, no invasion of Ukraine, the USA and European nations protest, throw some middling sanctions in and everybody calls it a day. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2022, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/672 "2022-02-21T18:22:31Z")
That is a very optimistic prediction. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2022, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/673 "2022-02-21T18:22:41Z")
I know. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2022, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/674 "2022-02-21T18:39:39Z")
Before his address I’ll make a prediction. Putin will recognize the DNR\LNR. In the next week they will request military aid because of the false flag shit Russia has been pushing. Russia will invade Ukraine militarily simultaneously supporting a political coup. Both may or may not succeed, but we’ll have tens of thousands dead and hundreds of thousands of refugees. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2022, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/675 "2022-02-21T18:44:50Z")
I bet it won’t even take a week - I wouldn’t be surprised if the military walked in tomorrow. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2022, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/676 "2022-02-21T18:50:48Z")
During Putin’s meeting with the Duma someone messed up their script and said Russia should annex the Donbas instead of just supporting independence. ---
**Author:** ![OldOlds](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a3d4f5/32.png) [@OldOlds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldOlds)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2022, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/677 "2022-02-21T18:54:31Z")
You took the words right out of my mouth. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2022, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/678 "2022-02-21T18:58:06Z")
That’s the pessimistic alternative to my optimistic prediction. We shall see which alternative is (closer to) the correct one soon I think. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2022, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/679 "2022-02-21T19:00:43Z")
That’s not even the most pessimistic. I didn’t predict NATO getting overtly involved or China pushing for reunification. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2022, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/680 "2022-02-21T19:01:20Z")
Nor is mine the most optimistic either. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699.md?page=33) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699.md?page=35)