# Russia may be about to invade Ukraine. {Russia has invaded as of Feb 24-2022} **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [April 9, 2021, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699 "2021-04-09T20:11:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 47
**Author:** ![DavidNRockies](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidnrockies/32/6279_2.png) [@DavidNRockies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DavidNRockies)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/923 "2022-02-24T18:11:14Z")
CNN is reporting that the Russians have taken Chernobyl. ---
**Author:** ![filmstar-en](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/50afbb/32.png) [@filmstar-en](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmstar-en)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/924 "2022-02-24T20:12:09Z")
So the US is a major supplier of LNG. Can the US increase production sufficiently to supply Europe should the Russian supply be cut off? I am pretty sure there have been a lot of discussions about this in the past few months between the EU, US and other major LNG suppliers. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/925 "2022-02-24T20:13:50Z")
We might be able to but LNG has its own issues. Keep in mind a very large amount of it comes from Fracking. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/926 "2022-02-24T20:14:19Z")
In the short term, I don’t think so. I’d say definitively ‘no’, but I’m not that well versed on the LGN trade, so not sure what contracts could or would be shifted to redirect gas to Europe, or the logistics aspects that would have to be changed or redirected. My WAG is that it’s not something we could do quickly or easily, though eventually we probably could. There are other medium or long term solutions to this in North Africa, IIRC, which would probably be better. Again, would take quite a bit of time though. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/927 "2022-02-24T20:20:43Z")
Gamma World style mutant soldiers is the long game. With regards to what Ukraine can do? Against artillery which Russian army is a huge fan of? Nothing. What stops the US from annihilating opposition is TV cameras and a fear of public opinion. I’m not sure Russia has the same ideological constraints. ---
**Author:** ![SpacemanSpiff\_II](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e19adc/32.png) [@SpacemanSpiff\_II](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpacemanSpiff_II)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/928 "2022-02-24T20:34:20Z")
> [@XT](#): > > In the short term, I don’t think so. I’d say definitively ‘no’, but I’m not that well versed on the LGN trade, so not sure what contracts could or would be shifted to redirect gas to Europe, or the logistics aspects that would have to be changed or redirected. My WAG is that it’s not something we could do quickly or easily, though eventually we probably could. There are other medium or long term solutions to this in North Africa, IIRC, which would probably be better. Again, would take quite a bit of time though. And the problem with that is the volatility of energy pricing and of the geopolitical situation generally. Right now, oil is up over $90 and other forms of energy are similarly up there, but a mere few years ago oil was in the $20s and energy producers were going bankrupt right and left. Once bitten twice shy, and the energy producers are very wary of investing a lot of money to up production when the price might plummet again and leave them more indebted and hung out to dry. [US oil companies are in no rush to solve Biden’s gas price problem - CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/10/energy/oil-gas-prices-joe-biden/index.html) Of course, if there was some way to ensure that Russian supply was permanently removed from the market, that would be a different situation. But between uncertainty over how Russia might evade sanctions, and uncertainty over what type of deals might eventually ease them, it’s a very speculative situation. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/929 "2022-02-24T20:36:19Z")
Yeah, I see no reason why oil companies should do anything but lay back and put their feet up and enjoy the high demand/crunch/high oil prices. Wiggle their toes while it goes past $110/barrel. Unless they calculated that by a slight increase in production - slight, but no more - they could maximize profit. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/930 "2022-02-24T21:13:45Z")
_Great. Goodbye Russian-made electric guitar amp tubes. Thanks Putin!_ … those are way better to begin with 😉 … > **[JJ Electronic - Vacuum tubes, Capacitors, Amplifiers](https://www.jj-electronic.com/en/)** > > JJ Electronic - Vacuum tubes, Capacitors, Amplifiers ---
**Author:** ![OldOlds](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a3d4f5/32.png) [@OldOlds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldOlds)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/931 "2022-02-24T21:22:16Z")
> [@YamatoTwinkie](#): > > The shortest route to Kyiv from Belarus is through the Chernobyl area, it may not be much more than that. That was the take on NPR at midday. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/932 "2022-02-24T21:25:53Z")
> [@Paul\_was\_in\_Saudi](#): > > > [@What\_Exit](#): > > > > Do you mean the hacker group? > > Yep. They seem oddly quiet. Nothing I noticed about China from them either of late. I wonder why. My understanding is that Anonymous was a group of youngish people who either went to jail for hacking or grew out of it sometime over a decade ago. I wouldn’t expect any response on Ukraine now since it’s no longer a group. I’m unaware of any new version of it worth calling the real deal. > **[What happened to anonymous and why haven't they been doing much?](https://www.quora.com/What-happened-to-anonymous-and-why-havent-they-been-doing-much)** > > Answer (1 of 9): The original hackers involved have moved on. Even if they still hack, the name Anonymous is toxic. > > The original group had good intentions and made up that whole “we are legion” and “everyone is Anonymous” thing with good intents.... It sounds like one of them made a BLM post back in 2020 - so they certainly could do similar now - but, if they’re still hacking, I expect that they’re doing it under the employ of a government agency. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/933 "2022-02-24T22:04:27Z")
> [@FoieGrasIsEvil](#): > > Great. Goodbye Russian-made electric guitar amp tubes. Thanks Putin! > > _Putin is so fucking ruthless he poisoned a former Russian spy AND his daughter in England with polonium in their freaking TEA, man_ Well… not exactly. Sergei and Yulia Skripal were killed by a nerve toxin, more specifically a [novichok nerve agent.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novichok) applied to the door of their home. Alexander Litvinenko was polonium in the tea. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/934 "2022-02-24T22:14:45Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > Why is Russia the only country in the world with any sort of cyberattack capabilities? It seems like something other countries should have looked into, too. It’s not. They’re just the most sloppy about using it and thus the most well-known. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/935 "2022-02-24T22:29:12Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > It’s not. They’re just the most sloppy about using it and thus the most well-known. So why aren’t they being attacked right now? ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/936 "2022-02-24T22:30:46Z")
Are you sure they’re not? ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/937 "2022-02-24T22:30:51Z")
How do you know they’re not? ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/938 "2022-02-24T22:35:46Z")
Russians, with their state-controlled media, are pretty good at hiding when bad things happen. Like the Chinese or North Koreans. So, we don’t actually know this, though my WAG is they aren’t being attacked via cyber methods currently because countries with good counter cyber are waiting to see if Putin’s threats translate into actual attacks. I would guess that Russia, like China, can be hurt just as badly as the US and western countries have been. The difference is that those countries do a lot more attacking, especially of our companies, than we do against them. That doesn’t mean, however, that they can’t be attacked. ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/939 "2022-02-24T22:36:30Z")
To add: the absolute worst hacks are the one that no one notices. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/940 "2022-02-24T22:38:56Z")
For almost minute-by-minute coverage, I follow this Twitter list, curated by Josh Marshall from Talking Points Memo, which combines tweets from multiple journalists and experts based in or around Ukraine: [https://twitter.com/i/lists/1494877848087187461](https://twitter.com/i/lists/1494877848087187461) From following it, the fighting appears relatively fierce and even back and forth; at one point (according to these Twitter sources) an airfield near Kiev was taken by Russian paratroopers, and then shortly after _retaken_ by Ukrainian forces, who drove the Russians into the woods. ---
**Author:** ![Paul\_was\_in\_Saudi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/b77776/32.png) [@Paul\_was\_in\_Saudi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paul_was_in_Saudi)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/941 "2022-02-24T22:48:03Z")
[Anonymous is now claiming strikes against Russian targets.](https://twitter.com/youranonnews) Go get them you basement-dwelling Klingon-speakers! " [#Anonymous](https://twitter.com/hashtag/Anonymous?src=hashtag_click) is currently involved in operations against the Russian Federation. Our operations are targeting the Russian government. There is an inevitability that the private sector will most likely be affected too. While this account cannot claim to speak for the whole (con)" ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2022, 5:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/942 "2022-02-25T05:27:43Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > From following it, the fighting appears relatively fierce and even back and forth; at one point (according to these Twitter sources) an airfield near Kiev was taken by Russian paratroopers, and then shortly after _retaken_ by Ukrainian forces, who drove the Russians into the woods. It is interesting how often the efficacy of Javelin antitank missiles has been mentioned in various feeds, which suggest the Ukrainians are at least taking some Russian vehicles and troops down with them. That said, it’s being reported Russia has achieved air supremacy, and their numbers are overwhelming. Ukraine is ideal ground for fast maneuver warfare. Russian victory is inevitable; the only question is whether they plan to consume the entire country or just part of it. The iron curtain descends again. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699.md?page=46) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699.md?page=48)