# Russia may be about to invade Ukraine. {Russia has invaded as of Feb 24-2022} **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [April 9, 2021, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699 "2021-04-09T20:11:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 50
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/983 "2022-02-26T15:54:19Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > But direct evidence of Kyiv and even Kharkiv still having electricity, and enough comms to upload photos of battle damage, and the Ukranian president being alive… the absence of reports of Russia successfully seizing and holding airfields to use as a beach-head for a deeper attack… to me this is strongly suggestive that Russia isn’t making the gains that were initially anticipated. I get the impression that the planners (a) were counting on the Ukrainians just immediately surrendering if given the chance or going into rout mode the moment they noticed the quantitative and qualitative difference, (b) reasonably don’t want to just put all their power in one place, lest somebody on a different flank get ideas and (c) felt the conquest of leveled smoldering ruins would make it hard to sell that they had “liberated” anyone; so they did not go full blast Operation Uran on this. > [@DSeid](#): > > Holding troops there for weeks sleeping outside their tanks may not have been the best tactic for having troops at their motivated fighting best. Heh, yeah. They seem to have been working a bit too hard at keeping up the bullshit justification that it was the other side that was coming on the offensive any day now. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/984 "2022-02-26T16:31:31Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > Personally, just spitballing, I would say Russia’s chances of winning are still around 3:1 in favor, but falling. So now we have the uncomfortable question: what if Ukraine actually wins? I think 3:1 is still absurdly optimistic. Russia still had vast reserves. That said, if the Russian offensive on Kyiv fails that spectacularly, they can certainly still retain control of the eastern separatist regions and call that a win. Putin started this atrocity by declaring them independent so he can even say that was the whole point. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/985 "2022-02-26T17:07:00Z")
History is rife with camper of vast reserves failing to win wars because the costs are too high and/or for too long. He can call a sea slug a giraffe. And his media will trumpet it. He will create evidence of the genocide he claimed. Trump will agree. But the costs are still incurred. The EU knows they cannot rely on Russia as a primary source of energy and sanctions will continue with that “ victory”. Russia’s economy is not big or strong. I’ve read analyses that such is worth it to Putin for the legacy of bringing Ukraine back as part of Russia, for having that be the capstone of his chapter in Russia’s history books. Two separatist regions? Big price for that. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/986 "2022-02-26T17:08:41Z")
It all hinges on what ‘winning’ is to Russia and Putin. I think he will consider it a ‘win’ if he is able to get away with annexing eastern Ukraine and, as part of the settlement gets the rest of Ukraine to accept punishing terms, including demilitarization and becoming a puppet. He might also negotiate to stop the fighting and simply take the break away territories in exchange for the west lowering sanctions and a promise that the rest of Ukraine will never be allowed in NATO. That could be a ‘win’ for him too. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/987 "2022-02-26T17:21:17Z")
> [@JRDelirious](#): > > (a) were counting on the Ukrainians just immediately surrendering if given the chance or going into rout mode the moment they noticed the quantitative and qualitative difference, Very stupid of them if if this was the case. > (b) reasonably don’t want to just put all their power in one place, lest somebody on a different flank get ideas and Possible. > (c) felt the conquest of leveled smoldering ruins would make it hard to sell that they had “liberated” anyone; so they did not go full blast Operation Uran on this. That and they have lots of cultural and family links with Ukraine, Doing that would be very unpopular at home, this isn’t Grozny. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/988 "2022-02-26T17:33:43Z")
One thing I haven’t seen mentioned a lot is…how does Russia expect to occupy Ukraine with the current forces they have? Even assuming they plan to bring in additional forces, they simply don’t have enough. Unless they plan on decapitating Ukraine and installing in their own puppet government which, while it might play out that way isn’t something one should plan on. I just wonder what it is that Russia does plan on happening in all of this. Because the more this goes on, the shakier it seems to me that Russia’s plan in all this is. It’s almost like Putin’s whole goal was to trick the west into thinking he’d negotiate, then spring the invasion on Ukraine and… … … Profit! There seems to be some steps missing, at least from what I’m seeing so far. ---
**Author:** ![Toxylon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f05b48/32.png) [@Toxylon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Toxylon)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/989 "2022-02-26T17:38:15Z")
I can’t help but feel giddy at the lack of Russian success so far. But a war and Russia expert that I highly respect reminded that this war has just began. Russia has massive reserves, and the expert opined that retreating would be such a loss of face for Putin that it’s not really an option. So, sadly, at this stage I don’t think Ukraine has any chances. They will fight valiantly, but Russia will crush the defenses. It may take time and heavy Russian casualties, but still. I so hope this is not the case, and Ukraine pulls a Winter War miracle. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/990 "2022-02-26T17:41:48Z")
> [@Toxylon](#): > > I can’t help but feel giddy at the lack of Russian success so far. But a war and Russian expert that I highly respect reminded that this war has just began. Russia has massive reserves, and the expert opined that retreating would be such a loss of face for Putin that it’s not really an option. Keep in mind that Russia is holding a lot of troops back at this point and also seem to be holding back on artillery and air strikes. There are good reasons for those things. Russian forces are also in the early maneuver phase, and have been trying to break through and cut off Ukrainian forces in the south east who were dug in to oppose the rebel forces. So far they haven’t done that, but if they do it could change quickly. Also, it seems Russia rightfully is hesitant to really go all in on the major cities, probably because of both the heavy losses they could potentially take as well as the bad press they would get for what that would entail on the civilians still in those big cities. Anyway, just keep that stuff in mind. This isn’t to say Ukraine isnt or won’t do well, but they are seriously overmatched in this. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/991 "2022-02-26T18:01:04Z")
This evening (or morning for Americans) Pentagon report is that the Russians forward elements are inside Kyiv while their main body is 30 km away. Very soon they will reach a point from where their field arty (not just the long range stuff) will be able to hit Kyiv city more or less at will. That will be that. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/992 "2022-02-26T18:02:11Z")
One thing I haven’t seen reports on is the status of resupplying Ukrainian forces. Are there convoys coming into Ukraine (presumably across the Polish border) with weapons, medical supplies, fuel, food, etc? ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/993 "2022-02-26T18:26:26Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > Are there convoys coming into Ukraine (presumably across the Polish border) with weapons, medical supplies, fuel, food, etc? I don’t know if they’ve started yet, but that seems to be the plan. [https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-poland-morawiecki-idUSL8N2UC31Q](https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-poland-morawiecki-idUSL8N2UC31Q) ---
**Author:** ![Dan\_ch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a4c791/32.png) [@Dan\_ch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dan_ch)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/994 "2022-02-26T18:38:38Z")
> [@XT](#): > > That’s exactly what he thinks. And, to be honest, from a historical perspective it’s not completely unreasonable or crazy. That said, countries can make their own arrangements for security, and, frankly, the Soviet-era iron boot on their various necks didn’t exactly instill in any of these countries a fondness of Russians or being under said boot. The Baltics in particular, but most of eastern Europe as well definitely ran to the west as soon as they could and with equally valid reasons to Putin wanting a buffer. I’d guess a buffer of friendly countries would have worked better than one made out of resentful vassals, but the Russian Empire/USSR/Russian Federation did not seem interested in pursuing this strategy. The only exception I can think of is Mongolia; IIRC they even asked repeatedly to become part of USSR, and were refused every time. But most modern states in Eastern Europe exist in their current form because they took advantage of Russia’s temporary weakness. Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaidjan, Armenia, the Baltics following the disintegration of USSR (Ukraine had a short life in 1919, before the bolsheviks took over, and the Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania from 1919 to 1940). Finland and Poland got their independence following the WW1 fall of the Russian Empire. Romania appeared on the map after Russia’s defeat in the 1856 Crimean War. And Russia always came back after them. Always. Poland almost got overrun in 1920, and then got wiped out in 1939, together with the Baltics. Romania’s Eastern borders were drawn and re-drawn several times by Russia (even when it was nominally allied with Russia, like in the 1877-1878 Russo-Turkish war, Romania had to accept a swap of territories). Georgia in 2008, now Ukraine, probably Moldova next (which already has a self-proclaimed separatist republic on its territory, including Russian troops stationed there). So, yeah, Russia’s view of the world in general and of its neighbors in particular it is much more likely to make everyone else go to NATO and EU, for military and economic safety. Russia behaves like an abusive father who’s shouting at his family “Look what you made me do!” while bashing their heads. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/995 "2022-02-26T18:56:09Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Unless they plan on decapitating Ukraine and installing in their own puppet government I believe that this is the exact plan. And the rest of the world should make it clear that they will not play along with bullshit like this. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/996 "2022-02-26T18:57:56Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > heir field arty (not just the long range stuff) will be able to hit Kyiv city more or less at will. That will be that. And how will the rest of the world react if/when Russian artillery bombards a civilian city, hospitals, schools, etc, killing massive numbers of regular people? It’s a war crime. ---
**Author:** ![Dan\_ch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a4c791/32.png) [@Dan\_ch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dan_ch)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/997 "2022-02-26T19:09:25Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Not to be unsympathetic, but the words/behavior of Zelensky and many Ukrainians all the way up until 24 hours ago was a prime example of denial and sticking one’s head in the sand. Meh, I think he knew what was coming, but tried to downplay it as long as possible. I heard on a podcast (by a Romanian journalist familiar with Ukraine, who was actually in Mariupol when the invasion started) that over the last few weeks the Ukrainian populace was rather optimistic. Understandable to some degree, they are actually at war since 2014; they expected some troubles, but more along the lines of increased activity in Donbass, not a full scale invasion. But, according to the podcast, this changed dramatically in the days prior to the invasion. They knew something big was going to happen. I don’t think it would have made any practical difference if they would have started worrying earlier. My impression is that the Ukrainian government knew and prepared for what was coming, very likely with consistent (and ongoing) help from US. For the last few days there’s a couple of KC-135 tankers on station in eastern Romania and Poland, a Boeing E-8 hovering above eastern Poland, and an RQ-4 drone skirting the Russian/Ukrainian territorial waters south of Crimea. All these are visible on Flightradar (so US wants everyone to see them), but surely there must be more flying stuff over there, those KC-135s must refuel something. Maybe that’s why Russia doesn’t have full control of the Ukrainian airspace (not yet, at least). I hope Zelensky makes it out of Kiiv eventually. I don’t know how good a president he was in peace time; I heard mixed stories about his performance, but in a country like Ukraine, with an ongoing war inside its borders, plenty of Eastern Euroeapan-style corruption and after two decades of being ruled by Putin’s kleptocratic stooges, I don’t know if anyone could have done better. But right now he seems the best placed to negotiate some sort of peace with Russia and the post-war future of Ukraine (however that “peace” will look like). I’d guess Ukrainians trust him now, after the last few days, and he must have gotten the respect of everyone else (maybe except Putin’s). It appears that Russia committed about 1/3 of its forces in the last few days, and now its pouring reinforcements in. Doesn’t look good. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/998 "2022-02-26T19:19:34Z")
Yeah, it’s a war crime. Russia has been committing war crimes for a decade in both Ukraine and Syria. What of it? They won’t answer for them if they win. What’ll happen is they’ll supply Ukraine, sanction Russia, and stay out of direct military action. The only chance for a positive outcome is to impose enough cost on Russia, that they withdraw and maybe get rid of Putin. This can be through: sanctions; seizing London/NYC apartments; revoking visas for oligarchs and their children; or helping Ukraine to send their children home in boxes. But you’re not going to see NATO troops intervening to stop war crimes. I have two big concerns. First is Russia outright winning and looking at their next target. If Ukraine proves tough enough, perhaps they’re too hesitant to do anything. Second is what Putin will do if things turn and he feels backed into a corner. Maybe he quietly retires to the countryside. Maybe he nukes Tallinn. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/999 "2022-02-26T19:23:10Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > > [@XT](#): > > > > Unless they plan on decapitating Ukraine and installing in their own puppet government > > I believe that this is the exact plan. If that was the plan, I don’t understand the last minute recognition of the breakaway regions. That action (along with the annexation of Crimea) effectively de-Russified Ukraine to a point where a puppet government would be almost impossible to maintain. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/1000 "2022-02-26T19:25:39Z")
The recognition of DNR/LNR was so that they could request Russian assistance and give Russia their casus belli. Could be difficult to maintain, but it would hardly be the only country in the world that was ruled by an unpopular tyrant. Many propped up by Russia currently. ---
**Author:** ![Bonum\_Legatum](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bonum_legatum/32/6183_2.png) [@Bonum\_Legatum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bonum_Legatum)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/1001 "2022-02-26T19:34:12Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > The most effective “sanctions” probably wouldn’t be economic, but rather, NATO-ish: Invite Sweden and Finland to join immediately, and give them fast-track membership. > [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#): > > But he might get more NATO in Scandinavia and other parts of eastern Europe. Could Moscow be monitoring this board? [https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/finland-sweden-brush-off-moscows-warning-joining-nato-83126927](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/finland-sweden-brush-off-moscows-warning-joining-nato-83126927) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/1002 "2022-02-26T19:48:59Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > And how will the rest of the world react if/when Russian artillery bombards a civilian city, hospitals, schools, etc, killing massive numbers of regular people? The world? Even in a totalitarian autocracy like Russia you have to consider: how will his own populus react? These are people that many Russians have strong connections with, not people with completely different cultures and complexions. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699.md?page=49) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699.md?page=51)