# Russia may be about to invade Ukraine. {Russia has invaded as of Feb 24-2022} **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [April 9, 2021, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699 "2021-04-09T20:11:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 54
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2022, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/1063 "2022-02-27T21:24:15Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > No kidding. IMO, this has blown up in Putin’s face. It’s still early days for this thing, though it does appear that Putin et al badly miscalculated both their ability to win this thing on the cheap (Russia still hasn’t sent in most of its forces) and western response. There is a lot of potential here for this thing to go sideways on Putin and he and his top leadership posing for gunfire…or shipped off to stand trial for war crimes. That would be the extreme of the unintended consequences, but on the other side of the scale, even if Russia manages to get Ukraine to surrender and is able to put in their own puppet I think Russia is going to be badly hurt, economically by all of this. Much worse than Putin thought would be the case. Somewhere in the middle is where we will probably end up, and while Putin probably doesn’t get deposed, Russia and he come out of this in much, much worse shape in all categories. The one scary thing in all of this is Putin is already reaching for the nuclear card. Sure, it’s a threat that he’s trying to use to intimidate, but that he’s reaching for it already to try and bludgeon western nations into backing off of the sanctions and probably to pressure Ukraine to surrender (or some other loopy idea he’s got) is troubling at this stage. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2022, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/1064 "2022-02-27T21:29:36Z")
> [@XT](#): > > The one scary thing in all of this is Putin is already reaching for the nuclear card. Sure, it’s a threat that he’s trying to use to intimidate, but that he’s reaching for it already to try and bludgeon western nations into backing off of the sanctions and probably to pressure Ukraine to surrender (or some other loopy idea he’s got) is troubling at this stage. His biggest danger at the moment is losing power, under internal pressure. I expect that the “nuclear deterrence” talk is addressed to those in his immediate vicinity more than it is to those outside the border. It’s like a guy with a live grenade, holding the clip in and daring someone to come at him. Putin’s going to need to be cautious about the food he’s eating, I would say. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2022, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/1065 "2022-02-27T21:34:24Z")
It’s possible that one of his folks will stab him in the back…literally…but I wouldn’t count on it, at least not yet. But things are definitely not going as Putin planned, and I think one of the things that I’ve heard that should be most troubling is that Russian soldiers don’t seem to be that into this whole campaign. If that’s true and were I Putin…I’d be seriously concerned about that. As well as some of the reports I’ve seen about some of his billionaire buddies having more than a little cold feet about all of this. As the pressure goes up on those guys, especially if they are sanctions and cut off from access to western Europe or anywhere else they would actually want to go, that’s going to increase the pressure on Putin and his regime. Easy victory where Ukraine just rolls over and the west does nothing, allowing Putin to look like the master and humiliate the west…that’s what they want and probably what they were told would happen. This? Not so much… ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2022, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/1066 "2022-02-27T21:49:36Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > His biggest danger at the moment is losing power, under internal pressure. I expect that the “nuclear deterrence” talk is addressed to those in his immediate vicinity more than it is to those outside the border. It’s like a guy with a live grenade, holding the clip in and daring someone to come at him. > > Putin’s going to need to be cautious about the food he’s eating, I would say It seems to me that threatening a course that may lead to mutually assured destruction makes those in the immediate vicinity more acutely consider taking him out quickly than to deter them. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2022, 4:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/1067 "2022-02-28T04:26:07Z")
I sure am glad that Pekin has no plans on Formosa then! ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2022, 4:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/1068 "2022-02-28T04:29:31Z")
I sure hope they don’t! We would be hard pressed to defend it > **[Formosa Province](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formosa_Province)** > > Pages for logged out editors learn more > > Formosa Province (Spanish pronunciation: \[foɾˈmosa\]) is a province in northeastern Argentina, part of the Gran Chaco Region. Formosa's northeast end touches Asunción, Paraguay, and the province borders the provinces of Chaco and Salta to its south and west, respectively. The capital is Formosa. > The name of the city (and the province) comes from the archaic Spanish word fermosa (currently hermosa) meaning "beautiful". The name Vuelta Fermosa or Vu... ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2022, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/1069 "2022-02-28T17:49:26Z")
On a slightly lighter note, [a Ukrainian man tries to sink his Russian boss’ boat](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60553124). I didn’t intend the rhyme but WTH. ---
**Author:** ![Bonum\_Legatum](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bonum_legatum/32/6183_2.png) [@Bonum\_Legatum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bonum_Legatum)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2022, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/1070 "2022-02-28T19:10:40Z")
On a side issue, I wish that the press would STOP referring to banking restrictions as the “financial nuclear weapon” or similar phrase. They are in NO way equivalent. > **[What is SWIFT and why it's being called the 'nuclear' option for Russian...](https://abcnews.go.com/International/swift-called-nuclear-option-russian-sanctions/story?id=83131068)** > > As Western allies levy increasingly harsher economic sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, the latest target involves Russia's access to SWIFT. > **[Explainer: Russian banks face exclusion as allies deploy 'financial nuclear...](https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russian-banks-face-exclusion-allies-deploy-financial-nuclear-weapon-2022-02-26/)** > > The United States, Britain and European Union ratcheted up sanctions against Moscow on Saturday as Russia continued its assault against Ukraine, saying they would block access to the SWIFT international payment system. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2022, 2:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/1071 "2022-03-04T02:09:47Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > The Ukrainians are still dealing with the aftermath of one blown-up Soviet nuclear plant on their territory, they may not be eager to blow up another they might wind up downwind of. Also, I could see the Russians trying to twist “they blew up a nuclear plant on our territory killing/irradiating our citizens” into “we can justify dropping a nuclear bomb on them”, > > Can we just say “no” to nuclear anything? Please? Russia has just shelled the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, and it is on fire. Does this mean we must drop a nuke on Putin? [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/russia-firing-on-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-ukraine-says](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/russia-firing-on-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-ukraine-says) ---
**Author:** ![Eva\_Luna](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e495f1/32.png) [@Eva\_Luna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eva_Luna)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2022, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/1072 "2022-03-04T03:48:04Z")
I’d settle for Putin dropping dead of a stroke, like his ostensible heroes, Lenin and Stalin. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2022, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/1073 "2022-03-04T03:51:20Z")
Well, he’s now admitting his plan is simply conquering the whole country, so yeah. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2022, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/1074 "2022-03-04T03:54:23Z")
Putin: “If I can’t have her, _nobody_ can!!” ---
**Author:** ![Seanette](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/seanette/32/9139_2.png) [@Seanette](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Seanette)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2022, 7:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/1075 "2022-03-04T07:26:17Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/russia-firing-on-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-ukraine-says](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/russia-firing-on-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-ukraine-says) This is paywalled. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2022, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/1076 "2022-03-07T14:55:38Z")
It looks like Moscow has laid out conditions for withdrawal. I don’t see Ukraine agreeing to many of them. > **[Latest Ukraine updates: UN urges safe passage for civilians](https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2022/3/6/russia-ukraine-us-mulls-oil-ban-liveblog)** > > Russia-Ukraine news from March 7: Kyiv says Russian shelling is preventing evacuation of civilians and delivery of aid. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2022, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/1077 "2022-03-07T15:28:33Z")
> [@Love\_Rhombus](#): > > I don’t see Ukraine agreeing to many of them. Crimea is a done deal - that’s the easy one. Donetsk and Luhansk is tough but in the face of comprehensive defeat, I’d expect Ukraine to eventually cave. They haven’t occupied half of that territory since 2014 anyway and had no real prospects of regaining it in the face of Russian support for the separatists. Those folks really don’t want to be part of Ukraine. But “enshrining neutrality” and any sort of demilitarization should be a deal killer. That’s functionally surrendering sovereignty. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2022, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/1078 "2022-03-07T15:30:57Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > But “enshrining neutrality” and any sort of demilitarization should be a deal killer. That’s functionally surrendering sovereignty. Yeah, this would be a red line for Ukraine. Even the first 3 you mentioned would be tough for Ukraine to ratify, but I agree that faced with mounting civilian casualties and costs, they might consider them. But demilitarizing and forced ‘neutrality’ (which would really mean going fully into Russia’s sphere) just don’t seem like something the Ukrainians could do and remain a sovereign, independent state. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2022, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/1079 "2022-03-07T15:46:30Z")
Do we think the “No NATO” demand is serious, or a pretext to keep fighting? “See, we gave them an out. Not our fault they didn’t accept!” ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2022, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/1080 "2022-03-07T15:48:32Z")
Counter proposal: Russia to leave the entirety of Ukraine. Ukraine joins NATO. Putin is surrendered to international court for war crimes. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2022, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/1081 "2022-03-07T15:54:04Z")
> [@Love\_Rhombus](#): > > Do we think the “No NATO” demand is serious, or a pretext to keep fighting? “See, we gave them an out. Not our fault they didn’t accept!” It’s a serious demand by Russia and might be one of their red lines. I don’t think it’s a staged demand just so they can claim they tried…I think Putin et al really thought they could pressure Ukraine and even NATO into this before the conflict started. Now? I seriously doubt anyone thinks this will happen short of a full military collapse and surrender in Ukraine. This could actually still happen, but would render it mainly a moot point, as Russia will almost certainly be trying to install a puppet state in that will be completely in Russia’s orbit from here on out (well, for as long as they last anyway). ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2022, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/1082 "2022-03-07T15:54:59Z")
> [@Love\_Rhombus](#): > > Do we think the “No NATO” demand is serious, or a pretext to keep fighting? I think it is serious AND it might be a pretext to keep fighting. Russia really does seem to be paranoid as fuck about being encircled. That this is partially predicated on Russia not being as able to pull their 800 lb bully act on their neighbors is sorta neither here nor there from a Russian POV. Far as they are concerned they are the natural regional hegemons as successors to the USSR as well the Russian Empire and woe to those that impede that impulse. But they also worry defensively as well. But if Ukraine is going to be “unreasonable” they might as well take out that problem the old-fashioned way. No more Ukraine and that southern border becomes the Black Sea. Much more comforting. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699.md?page=53) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699.md?page=55)