# Russia may be about to invade Ukraine. {Russia has invaded as of Feb 24-2022} **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [April 9, 2021, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699 "2021-04-09T20:11:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2021, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/101 "2021-12-01T02:52:50Z")
> [@filmstar-en](#): > > I am sure that combination would meet with some wry smiles in Russia and China if it means the US retreats from alliances tends towards isolationism. Did you mean the combination of Trump and Buttigieg as potentially the two 2024 choices? Here’s Buttigieg: [Where necessary and feasible, we should seek cooperation with Beijing, such as in addressing climate disruption, maintaining strategic stability, combatting terrorism, and managing conflict through international peacekeeping. But the United States must defend our fundamental values, core interests, and critical alliances, and accept that this will often entail friction with China.](https://www.cfr.org/article/pete-buttigieg) For better or worse, he would work well with mainstream U.S. foreign policy experts who abhor isolationism. Trump works so poorly with them they’d try to go around him. Could they? I hate to say yes, because maybe someone will read that and think – deep state! ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2021, 12:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/102 "2021-12-01T12:06:36Z")
Hey, Russia says they are only there because they are concerned by the Ukranian military build-up in the area. Seriously. > **[Putin demands NATO guarantees not to expand eastward](https://apnews.com/article/business-russia-ukraine-moscow-sergey-lavrov-90d7347e8f25bea1ddb2c7b3dc1687c0)** > > MOSCOW (AP) — President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday that Moscow would seek Western guarantees precluding any further NATO expansion and deployment of its weapons near his country's borders, a stern demand that comes amid fears of a Russian invasion... ---
**Author:** ![OldOlds](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a3d4f5/32.png) [@OldOlds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldOlds)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2021, 12:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/103 "2021-12-01T12:13:54Z")
After I pointed my gun in his face, I worried he might hit me, so I had to kill him in self defense. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2021, 12:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/104 "2021-12-01T12:25:42Z")
“Cause & effect… effect & cause… [shrug] what’s the difference?” ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2021, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/105 "2021-12-01T17:01:31Z")
> [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > With Taiwan we need to deter both sides of the conflict. If we appear unwilling to interfere than that will give China the incentive to invade Taiwan. But we we unambiguously say that we will come to Taiwan’s aid no matter what, then that gives them incentive to declare independence which makes things more unstable. So we need to keep strategic ambiguity where neither side feels confident enough to take actions under the assumption that they know what we will/won’t do. Where are you getting that Taiwan is only being held back from declaring independence by the US?? The current government has repeatedly said they aren’t looking to declare independence. It’s only CCP propaganda that seems to be pushing this narrative, so wondering where you are getting it from. I’d say that the only real difference between the Ukraine and Taiwan from the US’s perspective is we care a lot more about Taiwan and need it a lot more wrt trade, and have a lot longer relation with Taiwan than we do with Ukraine. Both are certainly about trying to deter a large power from simply taking a smaller power because they can. So, very similar from the macro perspective, the differences are really in how much the US cares and needs to maintain the status quo. Now EUROPE on the other hand cares a bit more about Ukraine and maintaining the status quo, as they should. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2021, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/106 "2021-12-01T17:03:00Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > Hey, Russia says they are only there because they are concerned by the Ukranian military build-up in the area. That is the kind of doublethink the Russians have always been masters of. 😆 ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2021, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/107 "2021-12-01T17:25:37Z")
So Russia is the Eastern European version of Kyle Rittenhouse? ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2021, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/108 "2021-12-01T17:28:18Z")
From the perspective of spin, yeah…very similar to the spin a few posts up… (I love how even this discussion is a way to bring in the case and spin it the way one wants to…because a Russian invasion of Ukraine is JUST like the case 😛 ) ---
**Author:** ![OldOlds](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a3d4f5/32.png) [@OldOlds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldOlds)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2021, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/109 "2021-12-01T17:40:18Z")
To be fair, I was thinking of Arbery when I made my crack. But even divorced from the allusion, I think the “logic” holds. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2021, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/110 "2021-12-01T17:42:44Z")
Ah, gotcha. It just seems a bit of a tangent to the thread and just a way to take a jab at the whole thing. I mean, I can see the side discussion wrt Taiwan being relevant, as they are similar…plus, Russia still hasn’t invaded (yet), and this thread is like 8 months old now so we are still waiting and have to talk about something. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2021, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/111 "2021-12-01T18:15:50Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > Hey, Russia says they are only there because they are concerned by the Ukranian military build-up in the area. Well Russia has to be prepared for a (very) surprise attack. 😂 ---
**Author:** ![Ann\_Hedonia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ann_hedonia/32/319_2.png) [@Ann\_Hedonia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ann_Hedonia)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2021, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/112 "2021-12-01T19:07:22Z")
At least now we have a US President who wasn’t manipulated into actively helping Russia by withholding congressionally approved military assistance from Ukraine. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2021, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/113 "2021-12-02T01:24:14Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Where are you getting that Taiwan is only being held back from declaring independence by the US?? My comments were mostly based on the historic motivations regarding diplomatic ambiguity as expressed in the article on Wikipedia. > **[Policy of deliberate ambiguity | Taiwan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Policy_of_deliberate_ambiguity#Taiwan)** > > The United States has numerous ambiguous policies relating to its positions on Taiwan. This issue is at the cornerstone of United States–Taiwan relations and a central sticking point in United States–China relations. This policy was intended to discourage both a unilateral declaration of independence by ROC leaders and an invasion of Taiwan by the PRC. The United States seemingly abandoned strategic ambiguity in 2001 after then-President George W. Bush stated that he would "do whatever it tak Pre... I agree that the current political situation makes detering provocative actions from Mainland China much more of an issue than those from Taiwan, so Biden’s leaning on the interventionist side of ambiguity probably makes sense under the current circumstances. My point was that even in theory there is no equivalent diplomatic necessity for ambiguity on our stance with Ukraine. So if Biden came out and unequivocally stated we will defend Ukraine no matter what, it wouldn’t be seen as a major break in long standing policy the way his statements on Taiwan were viewed. ---
**Author:** ![Kedikat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed655f/32.png) [@Kedikat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kedikat)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2021, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/114 "2021-12-02T01:39:59Z")
Putin is a very smart person. He absolutely realized why the USSR failed, in all it’s many ways. He is determined not to repeat any of those failures. Number one on his list to avoid those failures, is for Russia to mind it’s own business. It is cheaper. Lessens the number of bad, dangerous roads to travel out on. Much is made of Russia taking over Crimea. Crimea was already Russia. It was almost all Russian people, it did not need to be invaded, as it was already a huge Russian military installation in the midst of a Russian population. They voted to go back to being fully Russian. End of that non conflict. The other portions of Ukraine that are in dispute are also almost all Russian. I do believe there is covert and overt support from both sides to win them over. The Minsk accords are not being adhered to. If they were, I think things would calm down quickly. Then a long term social political battle would ensue. But tensions, violence would be much less. If both sides could back off long enough, I think the areas could return to enough stability and personal prosperity, that the people there would not care too much which side of a border they were technically on. As is often the case, outside players are fanning the flames for their own purposes. The U.S. likes to control everything whatever the costs. To their own people or the people in the foreign region. Having their military forces closer to any perceived threat is always their goal. Be it direct or through proxy. So Ukraine is a valued piece of territory to have direct U.S. forces and material arrayed towards Russia. Or by proxy of Ukraine and or NATO. In spite of the U.S. and NATO having broken the USSR by making it spend itself militarily into collapse, along with it’s doomed overly socialist schemes, devised and continued by nutjobs. It seems only Putin has learned that lesson. He continues to hold back, hold firm. The best offense is a good defense. It is cheaper. Less complicated and expensive both militarily and politically, both at home and with those countries you interact with. Russia continues to grow stronger. By investing in itself. Minding it’s own business. Just check out it’s standings on economic parameters. Most are positive and getting better. It’s debt is very low. It’s reserves in gold and solid investments is top of the world. ---
**Author:** ![OldOlds](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a3d4f5/32.png) [@OldOlds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldOlds)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2021, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/115 "2021-12-02T02:00:07Z")
Here too, I question whether Putin is really all that smart. I can’t claim to know him (of course), but in various interviews with Masha Gessen (well worth the watch), they\* seem to describe Putin as not particularly smart, but thuggish, and self-serving. [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/Kk9igTqTx9s/maxresdefault.jpg "The Putin Files: Masha Gessen") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kk9igTqTx9s) \*I’m not honestly sure what pronoun Gessen uses, but this seems the safest bet. ---
**Author:** ![Kedikat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed655f/32.png) [@Kedikat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kedikat)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2021, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/116 "2021-12-02T03:12:45Z")
Can’t track it down now. I read an article written by someone who lived and worked in Russia when Putin was still working in some bureau at a desk. The writer recalled dealing with Putin. Trying to get some sort of permit or permission. He was told to try and get to Putin by other folks. His experience was that Putin figured out the situation quickly. Gave good advice on how to go about getting the proper permissions. Did not ask for a bribe. The writer felt Putin was very competent and honest. Can’t figure out a good search phrase to find it again. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2021, 4:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/117 "2021-12-02T04:02:47Z")
“some bureau”? You mean the KGB? ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2021, 12:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/118 "2021-12-02T12:23:08Z")
Here’s the latest: > **[Tensions grow over Ukraine with the trading of threats](https://apnews.com/article/business-europe-russia-ukraine-moscow-aae934e3b73e428da957e9b1b6ddc4f1)** > > WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met face-to-face with his Russian counterpart on Thursday to demand Russia pull back troops from the border with Ukraine, as tensions and suspicions grow in a confrontation over Ukraine's... ---
**Author:** ![Bootb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e19b73/32.png) [@Bootb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bootb)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2021, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/119 "2021-12-03T02:18:57Z")
> [@Kedikat](#): > > Putin is a very smart person. He absolutely realized why the USSR failed, in all it’s many ways. He is determined not to repeat any of those failures. Number one on his list to avoid those failures, is for Russia to mind it’s own business. It is cheaper. Lessens the number of bad, dangerous roads to travel out on. > Much is made of Russia taking over Crimea. Crimea was already Russia. It was almost all Russian people, it did not need to be invaded, as it was already a huge Russian military installation in the midst of a Russian population. They voted to go back to being fully Russian. End of that non conflict. > The other portions of Ukraine that are in dispute are also almost all Russian. There are a LOT of Russian immigrants in the US. Would you be ok with Putin attacking the US because of that fact? ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2021, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/120 "2021-12-03T03:09:15Z")
Those [politicians, journalists and businessmen](https://www.businessinsider.com/list-of-people-putin-is-suspected-of-assassinating-2016-3) who criticized Putin and suddenly find themselves dead in creative and interesting ways were just wacky coincidences? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699.md?page=7)