# Russia may be about to invade Ukraine. {Russia has invaded as of Feb 24-2022} **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [April 9, 2021, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699 "2021-04-09T20:11:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![SpacemanSpiff\_II](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e19adc/32.png) [@SpacemanSpiff\_II](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpacemanSpiff_II)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2021, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/161 "2021-12-10T14:43:02Z")
> [@filmstar-en](#): > > Ukraine has a population of 43Million, somewhat similar in size to Iraq at 41Million. > > The US reaped a world of pain from the Iraq adventure at huge cost to the US taxpayer. Ukraine has a long history of being part of Russia. Iraq does not have any history at all of being part of the US (let alone being ruled by the US as an occupied territory). There would be much much less resistance in the Ukraine to Russia reabsorbing it than there was to the US occupying Iraq. ---
**Author:** ![filmstar-en](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/50afbb/32.png) [@filmstar-en](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmstar-en)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2021, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/162 "2021-12-10T20:30:53Z")
It would be interesting to know the balance of public opinion in the Ukraine regarding this. Somehow I don’t think they would be very keen unless Putin came bearing the same sort of prosperity that has been the experience of the former Soviet states that joined the EU. They just want to live in a normal country with a fuctioning economy rather than some nasty brutish regime run by a thuggish Putin loyalist like Lukashenko in Belarus. Ukraine has been there before, during the Viktor Yanukovych years before he was kicked out in 2014. Perhaps he will be back? > **[Viktor Yanukovych](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Yanukovych)** > > Pages for logged out editors learn more > > > > Viktor Fedorovych Yanukovych (Ukrainian: Віктор Федорович Янукович, pronounced \[ˈwiktor ˈfɛdorowɪtʃ jɐnʊˈkɔwɪtʃ\] (listen); Russian: Виктор Фёдорович Янукович, romanized: Viktor Fyodorovich Yanukovich; born 9 July 1950) is a former politician who served as the fourth president of Ukraine from 2010 until he was removed from office in the Revolution of Dignity in 2014, after a long series of protests in support of closer ties with the European Un... ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2021, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/163 "2021-12-10T21:11:12Z")
> [@SpacemanSpiff\_II](#): > > Ukraine has a long history of being part of Russia Not a very good history, though. There are probably quite a number who still remember the oppression that came with being under Soviet rule. I doubt they will feel that Russia will be any better. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2021, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/164 "2021-12-10T21:15:51Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > Not a very good history, though. There are probably quite a number who still remember the oppression that came with being under Soviet rule. I doubt they will feel that Russia will be any better. Yeah, it wasn’t exactly a happy history, though most of the original inhabitants (well, at the time of the Soviet Union) of the region had been either purged or shipped out, with Russian nationals shipped in. Even for them, it wasn’t all vodka and borscht though. I mean, we are talking about the region where Chernobyl happened after all, and there are several huge dumps for irradiated materials and vehicles in Ukraine. That doesn’t even get into the myriad ecological disasters in the region that the folks there are still paying for, courtesy of the USSR. ---
**Author:** ![filmstar-en](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/50afbb/32.png) [@filmstar-en](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmstar-en)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2021, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/165 "2021-12-11T01:57:11Z")
> **[‘Nobody wants to be Putin’s slave’: on the Ukraine frontline as tensions rise](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/nobody-wants-to-be-putins-slave-on-the-ukraine-frontline-as-tensions-rise)** > > Soldiers and residents living in the shadow of Russia’s military buildup describe the toll of the long, unresolved conflict They make the point that the Ukraine, after eight years of war has, a 300,000 veterans that could form a partisan army to resist a Russian occupation and make it ungovernable. Ukraine also now has much better weapons that in 2014. It would be bloody. Ukraine is a signficant arms manufacturer, there are no doubt large caches of arms all over the country as a consequence of the 2014. Turkey is in an interesting and contradicitory position, buying missiles from Russia and selling drones to Ukraine. Arguments over missiles are very Cold War. But drones are much cheaper and can deal with artillery and tanks and Turkey seems to have developed a significant market share of these battle tested weapons. I wonder if their performance in this is what is worrying Putin and account for the modifications seen on top of Russian tanks? [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/S_X_9oWLmfU/hqdefault.jpg "All eyes on Turkish drones after Azerbaijan’s victory") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_X_9oWLmfU) Those combined with the Javelin anti-tank missiles from the US? If Russia experienced significant losses during an invasion of Ukraine fighting against a nation that very similar in culture to Russians and that plunges the country into an economic war with the West? That is a lot of risk for not much gain. It would not be a smart move. Influential Russians have lots of money salted away in Western financial institutions. If that came under threat and a few luxury yachts were impounded, Putin would come under a lot of internal pressure. I am sure that if the West wanted to seriously damage the Russian economy, it could be done with a few phone calls. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2021, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/166 "2021-12-11T21:05:52Z")
ISTM that having thousands and thousands of Ukrainian **snipers** would be an ideal asymmetric approach. Snipers have a disproportionate effect on the enemy; one or a few snipers can greatly bog down the movement of Russian infantry, especially in the city, and it is very demoralizing and unnerving to face one or multiple snipers who can kill you without you even spotting them. Many Ukrainian snipers perched outside and inside the outskirts of every town and city could make it extremely difficult for Russian infantry to advance into the city. They couldn’t stop Russian armor, true, but that would be someone else’s job. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2021, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/167 "2021-12-11T22:26:19Z")
That depends on whether the enemy you are fighting cares about the human shields you are using. Not that hard to bomb down an entire building to take out a sniper. ---
**Author:** ![filmstar-en](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/50afbb/32.png) [@filmstar-en](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmstar-en)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2021, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/168 "2021-12-13T00:37:24Z")
Putins timing is all wrong. The noises coming from the West and NATO are consistent and show solidarity. A year ago that would not have been the case. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2021, 1:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/169 "2021-12-16T13:30:58Z")
From the AP: > **[Jittery Ukrainian villagers 'fear that a big war will start'](https://apnews.com/article/business-europe-russia-ukraine-57128337f35c21976933463c3b5cdd7f)** > > NEVELSKE, Ukraine (AP) — Liudmyla Momot wipes away tears as she searches for clothes and household items to salvage from the ruins of her home that was shelled by Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2021, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/170 "2021-12-16T22:17:04Z")
That ‘leaked’ document may have been a trial balloon to test reaction to a potential invasion. Or it may be a smoke screen, hoping to make us think nothing will happen until February. I hope that immediately after that letter ‘leaked’, western militaries started wargaming what happens if Russia invades before Christmas. Because I would assume that a leak from the Kremlin was intentional, and would start thinking about the purpose of the leak. It may have been a true leak and not disinformation, but I’d hedge my bets. ‘Leaking’ fake plans is a tactic as old as warfare. ---
**Author:** ![Chad\_Sudan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chad_sudan/32/4509_2.png) [@Chad\_Sudan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chad_Sudan)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2022, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/171 "2022-01-14T17:47:28Z")
Some thought that Putin would use the US-Russia talks to de-escalate the Ukraine crisis and then declare “victory.” Instead, Russia said the talks had failed. Now there’s news today of a cyberattack on the websites of Ukrainian government ministries. And the US thinks Russia is planning a [false-flag attack on Ukraine](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/14/us-russia-false-flag-ukraine-attack-claim) in the coming weeks. Watch this thread – it could spring to life again soon. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2022, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/172 "2022-01-14T20:20:24Z")
Let’s hope not. Personally, I’m hoping Russia and Putin are simply playing mind games or these are trial balloons to just see what the West will do…or won’t do. I think there are a lot of stresses on the US’s political and economic system right now, let alone Europe…but that there are a lot on Russia too. The wrong move could produce a tumbling house of cards globally. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2022, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/173 "2022-01-14T21:06:41Z")
AP story just posted: > **[White House: Russia prepping pretext for Ukraine invasion](https://apnews.com/article/europe-russia-media-ukraine-vladimir-putin-f24e6bd400e20d7890daff371cd80eb2)** > > WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. intelligence officials have determined a Russian effort is underway to create a pretext for its troops to further invade Ukraine, and Moscow has already prepositioned operatives to conduct “a false-flag operation” in eastern... ---
**Author:** ![The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_stainless_steel_rat/32/5727_2.png) [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Stainless_Steel_Rat)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2022, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/174 "2022-01-17T21:24:40Z")
Interesting data point (well, interesting to me). I just heard a loud aircraft take off from Huntsville Intl. airport. As I sometimes do, I went to planefinder.net–and it’s showing as an Antonov A-124 (a heavy-lift aircraft much like the C-5A Galaxy) just took off heading for Kiev…and Redstone Arsenal, home of the Aviation and Missile Command, is right next to the airport. Now albeit, if it was something moderately secret, they’d be using the airfield at Redstone, but it’s still mildly interesting, considering the tensions around that area. Ok, end of conspiracy-mongering. If you’re curious/skeptical, it’s on [https://planefinder.net/](https://planefinder.net/) with no flight number listed. Right now it should be just south of Chattanooga (1524 hrs CST) ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2022, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/175 "2022-01-18T02:41:05Z")
And it’s now well north of Kiev, headed towards Iceland. Here’s the link I’m using to track it: [https://planefinder.net/flight/ADB323F](https://planefinder.net/flight/ADB323F) ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2022, 3:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/176 "2022-01-18T03:15:00Z")
Time to test out the BONUS sensor-fuzed munitions as well. Would like to see Germany donate a couple thousand to Ukraine so that Ukrainian howitzers can put the smart shells to the test. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2022, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/177 "2022-01-18T03:32:15Z")
Apparently diplomats were quietly called back from Ukraine. Blah. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2022, 12:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/178 "2022-01-18T12:50:52Z")
The AP just posted this: > **[Blinken to meet with senior Russian as Ukraine tensions soar](https://apnews.com/article/congress-antony-blinken-kyiv-ukraine-europe-92e8c36e486afe5a46950df98042336e)** > > WASHINGTON (AP) — Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet with his Russian counterpart in Switzerland this week as tensions between the U.S. and Russia escalate over a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine, the State Department said Tuesday. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2022, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/179 "2022-01-18T16:58:07Z")
If Russia wants to invade, it has a limited time window. By March, the spring thaw will make Ukraine muddy enough to greatly hamper the movement of heavy tanks and armored vehicles. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2022, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699/180 "2022-01-18T21:41:39Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > [https://apnews.com/article/congress-antony-blinken-kyiv-ukraine-europe-92e8c36e486afe5a46950df98042336e](https://apnews.com/article/congress-antony-blinken-kyiv-ukraine-europe-92e8c36e486afe5a46950df98042336e) In terms of responding to this in a way that’s more liable to get Putin to back down, I feel like we’re doing it wrong. If you’re going to send people to tell Russia to back down, you want it to be a show of how many countries Russia will be dealing with. You should have the UK, France, Germany, etc. all in there giving the same message. But, better than that, you just tell them what the consequences are if they go ahead and leave it at that. The more you send in people to try and talk it through - when there really is nothing to talk through - the weaker you make yourself and the more you convince the enemy that you’re going to quietly pretend that nothing ever happened, after the invasion actually begins. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-may-be-about-to-invade-ukraine-russia-has-invaded-as-of-feb-24-2022/939699.md?page=10)