I have no problem cutting China off from sales to the US. We can call it Operation Australia.
Is that, in fact, a common Chinese strategy? They haven’t actually fought many wars recently, anyway.
You cannot just throw men across the sea. They need landing craft, amphibious support, a way to establish beachheads, and would have to so so in the fact of a very well armed and determined foe. I honestly don’t think Ukraine will put up that much of a fight.
I knew Shit’s Gettin’ Real when I heard that SWEDEN is getting their military involved.
This really worries me, and not just because I found out recently that one of my HS teachers lives there.
Yeah, but invading Taiwan is a D-Day level assault, and would require similar levels of preparation and logistical support across the Taiwan Strait, and while the Chinese have plenty of men to throw at it, color me skeptical that they have the naval and logistical expertise and equipment to actually supply and maintain a force that size in the field across the strait, with the Taiwanese navy and air force trying their best to disrupt it.
Top story at the AP right now:
Video here:
I hope nothing bad happens with this. Irish fishermen plan to fish in the same area Russia is planning military exercise.
From the article:
Meanwhile, Mr Murphy said he spoke to an official of the Russian Embassy on Tuesday afternoon.
He said the official told him “it would be reckless” for the fishing organisation to send boats out to intervene with the exercise.
Mr Murphy said he assured the official that the fishermen’s organisation would not be sending boats out to specifically engage with the Russian Navy.
“We are letting them know that we will be fishing in our traditional fishing areas and if this has an impact on their exercise this would be considered a peaceful protest,” Mr Murphy added.
Is it? The West / NATO don’t really do wars of territorial conquest anymore. When was the last time the US went to war for purposes of annexing territory? How about any of the other members of NATO (Nazi Germany and the Ottoman Empire don’t count)? You’d have to go back to the 19th century. With Russia you only have to back as far as 2014. I don’t think Putin has any legitimate reason to fear any of the NATO countries invading Russia, even in an alternate world in which Ukraine had joined NATO.
Are you serious? 
Okay, not directly annexing, but invasion, military conquest and attempting to install a US-friendly government by force. Based on propaganda about weapons of mass destruction.
I was never a supporter of the invasion of Iraq. But that said, I don’t think Russia has to worry about a similar event.
Something rarely mentioned in the press coverage on this topic:
Russia signed the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, guaranteeing Ukraine’s territory and sovereignty. This was the same agreement in which Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons.
If Russia now invades Ukraine, what lesson does that send to small states that have, or want, nuclear weapons? “Never ever let the Great Powers try to de-nuclearize you.”
Even in the worst case scenario (from the Russian point of view), we’d just be back to the Cold War II. AFAIK we were never considering an invasion of the Soviet Union during the Cold War, for obvious reasons. I don’t see how the current situation is any different. In the event of a war between the US and Russia, it wouldn’t make a difference if the American tanks are starting their invasion from Paris, Berlin, Warsaw, Riga, or Kiev, just like it wouldn’t have made a difference in the 1960s if invading Soviet troops started their journey in Samarkand or Havana. In the end it would come down to MAD, no different in 2022 than it would have been in 1962.
I was a young adult in the final stages of the cold war. And even then, I never really understood the hysteria. Because as you point out, there are two options there: Nobody dies, everybody dies. I always assumed the latter was the preferred option.
Or: “North Korea is right!”
Not a role model that we want to encourage, IMO.
This. Putin is a smart guy. He knows that “the west” has no interest in trying to use armed forces to invade Russia and overthrow his government. He’s just being an asshole and trying to impose authoritarian rule in a place where people are enjoying Democracy, because it pisses him off that Ukrainians rejected his brand of authoritarianism. This situation is like an abusive husband whose wife left and is hiding at the neighbors house going over to that house to drag her back. The only question is how much, if any, support is the neighbor willing to offer the abused wife.
Russia: “Look what you’re making us do!”
I assume you mean the FORMER?
This is kind of a red herring. Russia knows NATO doesn’t want to annex anything. But there’s an enormous military advantage from NATO having assets parked right on the border of Russian territory. Shostka to Moscow is only about 300 miles. You could set up weapons stores and logistics lines there, perform surveillance and spying, set up missile early warning systems, and Russia couldn’t do a thing about it.
If Russia decided they ever wanted/needed to roll into Finland or Poland or the Baltics, Ukraine is a gun pointed at the back of their head. You might say “they shouldn’t do that”, but military planners live and breathe contingencies. The US once had a plan to invade Canada, broadly considered an ally.
I don’t agree with anything Russia does, it’s highly irresponsible bordering on lunacy. It’s never justifiable to start a war. But I do agree that having NATO parked on their border seems excessively destabilizing to me. (No I don’t have a good answer, I don’t know that there are any).
Oops. Yes. I meant former.
Or did I?
If they went into Poland or the Baltics, it would likely become a nuclear war fairly quickly, probably as soon as Russia starts getting its ass kicked. That would happen quickly, regardless of whether Ukraine is pro-Russia or not. In a war against NATO they’re already surrounded. There’s Canada across the Artic, Turkey to the southwest, all the various European powers to their west, US forces in Japan to their southeast and all over Europe, with the capacity to mobilize from our mainland as well. They would have no chance in a conventional war against NATO.
Fortunately for Russia, NATO has no interest in invading Russia. The only scenarios they have to fear is one in which they are the initial aggressors, just like an abusive husband has nothing to fear from the police as long as he avoids beating his wife.
(bolded for truth)
You know, the more I think about how this crisis would be playing out under the last US administration… the less I want to think about it.