I didn’t say it was a valid argument……
The enemy is under no obligation to do what you think is rational.
Assuming invasion is the only way, then, sure…‘most rational’ would be taking southeastern Ukraine and perhaps threatening Kyiv to force Ukraine to make concessions and give up everything east of the Dnieper…which was probably Putin’s original goal, assuming he had a master plan for all this.
I don’t think this is the most rational course for Russia, but as AK84 noted, that doesn’t mean Putin et al agree. I’d say the most rational course would have been to back down about 2 or 3 weeks ago. Not having done so, NATO is now moving troops into Eastern Europe, something that Putin definitely didn’t want, and are talking about making these deployments permanent…a nightmare for Russia, if they were really concerned about Eastern Europe and their supposed security concerns about a NATO invasion or whatever. Leaving aside the most rational has come and gone, today it would still be for Russia to basically handwave this all away, saying it was just a drill or maybe something along those lines and backing down, perhaps after wringing the best concessions they could out of NATO and the US. It’s almost certain at this point that unless he does, NATO will probably bring Ukraine into the alliance, Russia having proven why the Ukrainians are so adamant about wanting to join. This, ironically, will be all of the things Russia really, really didn’t want to happen all in one package…and it’s pretty much Putin’s fault, something I’m sure that will occur to many in Russia at some point.
Somehow I don’t think Russia and Putin plan to be all that rational, though I’m hoping he’s just holding out for the best deal he can still get out of this cluster fuck for Russia. He probably still could get at least some sort of back-channel agreement for NATO to continue to vacillate on bringing Ukraine into the alliance if he acts soon, but I think even that window is closing.
I disagree. To the contrary, it’s far less likely that Ukraine becomes part of NATO than it was before this situation developed.
I don’t think many people in NATO countries are willing to go to war over having Ukraine in the alliance. But a lot of people now believe that would be the price of having it. (And they are most likely correct.)
We will have to see, but I respect the opinion you have here even if I don’t share it. I think that this stunt by Putin will make it more likely Ukraine is (finally…it’s been years after all) admitted to NATO if nothing else as punishment for this whole thing but also because it’s apparent that Ukraine has serious security concerns wrt Russia. Though IMHO it will hinge on Ukraine dealing with, in one way or another, the rebellious provinces.
As I’ve said upthread, Putin’s actions over the last few years have only turned Ukrainian necks westwards. He annexed away 1.1m voters who would vote for closer Russian ties and alienated large numbers of ordinary Ukrainians. If he wants Ukraine within Russia’s sphere of influence now he has only the military option left to him.
Definitely, he’s changed the entire voting dynamic in the country with his actions and certainly moved them even more towards the west. I agree…if he wanted them in the Russian sphere he’d have to do it through military action, at least the eastern part of the country. But, of course, that would cause even more issues, even assuming he could just do that because there will be a lot of Ukrainians who are going to rebel against anything like that.
I doubt that he really cares. He’s not planning to go to war with NATO and he can be fairly confident that we’re not going to attack him, without a direct attack on NATO land. Why give a damn about where we’re hanging out?
He just wants land. Unless NATO is going to fight for that land, who cares where they are?
I’m not sure of the effectiveness of sanctions but that is the sort of thing where Putin might actually take note. If there are enough people in power, in the country, to get supremely hurt by sanctions then he might just take Belarus and call it a day. If not then he’ll go in, take Donbas, and shrug as NATO builds bases in all the land that he never planned to take anyways.
You are correct, he doesn’t think NATO is an offensive threat, and you are correct, he’s not worried about them actually attacking Russia. Why does he care? Because he’s built this up in the Russian peoples minds as an issue, as a threat, and NATO moving forces into Poland and other Eastern European nations is something that he has built up alarm about…so, he has to care when they actually do it. He’s hoist on his own petard, so to speak.
Oh, he’s certainly aware of it and taking note. However, he’s spent some time building up his reserves, and the fact that oil (and gas) is now going through the roof means he’s actually got more money to work with. Then there is the Chinese angle. All that said, IF he invades and IF we actually push through the sanctions and IF we manage to get the Germans on board with stopping Nord Stream II, there is no doubt the Russian economy will be in serious trouble. A lot of ifs in all that, however.
Again, I don’t think so, but obviously YMMV. I think his plan was to get NATO to make concessions, the biggest one being stopping Ukraine (and Georgia from going into the EU, though that’s only tangentially related) from joining and maybe making Eastern Europe some sort of a no NATO militarized zone. If he rolls into the disputed territories in the Ukraine then he’s going to have a permanent NATO presence in Eastern Europe and, IMHO anyway, whatever is left of Ukraine in NATO along with several other countries who have either been on the fence or neutral…or basically been hanging, waiting for NATO to do something. And actual invasion though? NATO will get off the fence and stop screwing around, and I think he knows it. It’s why I think he realizes he’s overplayed his hand.
The wild card, IMHO is China. It’s possible that the CCP and Putin are in talks to coordinate attacks…Russia takes on the Ukraine while China invades Taiwan, with the intent of stretching the US beyond its limits and shattering its alliances. I doubt that will happen or even that this is some sort of master plan, but it’s plausible and it might even work, at least for some definitions of ‘work’.
Well it seems the word on the newswires is that the Russian invasion of Ukraine may be on.
A very sad day for the world if this is true.
I was thinking the other day that since everybody expects Russia to invade right after the Olympics, then to preserve what remains of the element of surprise, Russia should invade during the Olympics. And the signs seem to be pointing in that direction.
Russian forces will probably be in Kyiv by month’s end, and they’ll catch some brutal sanctions, and that’ll be that. Maybe a lingering partisan campaign. Much like when Russia invaded Georgia and the Donbas, in other words.
- When Will They Invade?
- Saturday 12 February
- Sunday 13 February
- Monday 14 February
- Tuesday 15 February
- Wednesday 16 February
- Thursday 17 February
- Friday 18 February
- No Invasion
- A complex, confused Invasion on no one day
0 voters
Sounds like someone jumped the gun on that one. Yes, the situation is tense, but there are no reports from major media that any attack is occurring.
Well, you didn’t include a “No one but Putin knows, and I’m not Putin” option. So I can’t really vote, now can I? 
I don’t know that this is jumping the gun. You want to evacuate your nationals before the invasion starts, not during the invasion. My take on this is that it means that Russia has all its pieces in play and so can invade without warming. So if you wait any longer you might be too late for an orderly withdrawl.
The pieces are in place and intelligence analysis of various things such as Russian chatter indicate an invasion is imminent. However Putin is still talking so I still reckon it’s all bluster.
List of countries evacuating their nationals grows: US, UK, Netherlands, Iraq, Lithuania, Germany… probably a bunch more, those are just the ones I’ve seen in headlines today.
A part of me wonders if Putin will launch this during the Superbowl, thinking the Americans will be distracted, but who really knows? Only Putin, and that’s assuming he’s actually made a decision.
I’m sure there’s a lot of grousing about the “don’t expect a rescue” line from the US government but I find the honesty refreshing.
Russians identified a USN submarine inside their waters.
Fairly certain a Russian submarine will be “found” inside American waters soon.
Russia has a lot of land already. I’m not sure if adding a tiny bit of land is the actual goal. My bet is looking for yet another fracture plane to exploit among the Western democracies in order to adjust the balance of global power is the more likely rationale. As XT conjectures with regards to working with China, if the #2 and #3 military powers want to shake things up this and pressure on Taiwan may be the way to do it.
Let’s say Russia does invade. What NATO reaction - if any - do you think appropriate response to what degree of incursion?
I’m trying to figure how bad it would be for the West to actually launch missiles/drop bombs. And should the engagement occur within Ukraine or in Russia?