Sure, but then Putin is the one calling the shots, and only he really knows what he will or won’t ultimately do. Much of the contention in this thread…at least the rational contention, IMHO…is simply over the ultimate Russian intentions. There is certainly a large area of legitimate debate over what it is Russia actually intends, or intended. Personally, as I’ve said, I think Putin overplayed his hand and now he’s caught in a crack and trying to figure out what his next moves will be on the fly. I think that’s the main reason for Russia to be getting close to China recently…he’s trying to backfill from a fuckup, not because he’s playing 3-D chess (and not because this is some sort of US lead propaganda something something that we are pushing).
The Ukrainians are still dealing with the aftermath of one blown-up Soviet nuclear plant on their territory, they may not be eager to blow up another they might wind up downwind of. Also, I could see the Russians trying to twist “they blew up a nuclear plant on our territory killing/irradiating our citizens” into “we can justify dropping a nuclear bomb on them”,
Can we just say “no” to nuclear anything? Please?
Basically, what they did in Afghanistan to the Soviets. Bleed 'em 'til they go home.
Yes - the massed Russia troops are moving around doing stuff. I think they’re trying to rationalize it as “war games” of some sort with Belarus. Which has some plausibility as an excuse, but not a lot…
Well, it is in fact possible for two different parties to look at the same information and come to different conclusions.
It’s possible that one (or both) governments have propaganda reasons for saying what they say.
But perhaps more importantly - today the President of Ukraine posted on social media that he has been given information that February 16 is the day slated for the invasion so apparently something has come to light very recently.
See the above.
If Ukraine surrenders it won’t be a “sizeable” chunk of land, it will be ALL their land. I’m not taking bets how long Ukraine would or would not last after an invasions.
Beyond what’s already been done there is NOTHING the US can do to prevent it that won’t trigger WWIII, some I would desire even less than an invasion of Ukraine. Consequences? Sure, we can make some severe ones but they’ll likely have some blowback onto the US and Western Europe so brace yourself for that.
I think the initial wave will be a decapitation - targeted strikes on communication, seizing of roads as far as Kiev, dropping airmobile troops on Boryspil airport. Putin will have all of Ukraine by the throat, and then whether Russia pushes past the Dnieper is down to whether any significant partisan resistance materializes.
I think there’s going to be some uncomfortable moments where Putin goes on TV with a fistful of debris that he claims are parts of American cruise missiles, with some dire warnings for NATO to stop meddling. The information space is going to look pretty bonkers here for the foreseeable future, and I’m concerned about the ongoing possibility of major miscalculation.
Hence the prep-work/propaganda already issued cautioning about false-flag operations.
A principal way that Russia has been able to stay more influential on the global stage, than its actual financial and military might would say, is its position as a permanent member on the UN Security Council. If they launch an attack on Ukraine, I think that it would be relatively straightforward to have them booted from the UN entirely.
If you then say that Russia has chosen that internationally accepted borders are no longer relevant to their world view then, so far as the UN is concerned, China or anyone else is free to claim whatever Russian territory that they believe they have an argument for.
China might support UN votes that go against Russian interests.
Really, if Russia does it, they’ve basically put a big Take Me sign on their own back to anyone who has control over Russian bank accounts, Russian contracts, Russian owned property, etc.
There isn’t any way to kick Russia out of the UN. They are a permanent member of the UNSC. They can veto any such attempt, even if the other 4 members vote for it…which they won’t, especially China.
Not a chance, and it’s moot anyway unless you could figure out some way to have Russia not show up for the vote.
I bet the first sign that the invasion is coming will be a cyber attack on Ukrainian utilities- cripple communications and demoralize the public. AIr strikes follow and the tanks roll in. The Ukrainian president is going to be faced with the choice of allowing millions of people to die or capitulation. The terms will be whatever Putin wants. I tend to think he won’t want the entire country as that would entail a lengthy occupation and enduring guerilla attacks. They probably learned something for their own Afghan debacle as well as the US experience.
Even if it were feasible (& I don’t think it is), it would kind of defeat the entire purpose of the UN to have the second most potent nuclear power in the world not be a part of the UN.
I don’t think there’s any precedent for kicking countries out of the UN due to outrage over their military actions, and for this reason.
The only country ever expelled from the UN and the UN Security Council is Taiwan (Republic of China), which wasn’t so much kicked out as replaced by the other much larger and more powerful country calling itself China (People’s Republic of China).
China will support any and all UN votes that they believe will benefit them, regardless of whose interest they may or may not otherwise involve.
Currently, getting cozy with Russia benefits China by playing Russia and the US against each other, but their government is no one’s friend. I’d think Putin would know better (he’s no one’s friend, either). Russia and China will be cozy only so long as it’s mutually beneficial but as soon as expedient (and profitable) either will thrown the other under the bus.
The rumor now is that the Russians will attack on Wednesday. In the poll, I voted for today.
If the West does absolutely nothing other nations that are nuclear powers are going to see that historical claims of territory are ripe for the picking.
You do realize that Russia could veto that.
No. Russia is almost completely dependent on China today, but the converse isn’t true. I think Russia is barely in the top 10 of China’s trade partners, and even with the expanded energy agreements, China only gets about 10% of its gas from Russia today and I doubt it will go up all that much. Russia won’t be throwing China under any buses, they are going to eventually become a client state and are certainly the junior partner in this relationship.
For whatever reason, Putin doesn’t seem to realize this and has let his antipathy towards the West and NATO to move Russia further and further into China’s sphere…and they have nearly reached the Roche limit wrt the mass of China verse that of Russia.
I agree with you that China will vote for whatever they think will be in their interests, however. And China almost certainly sees this dust-up in Ukraine as a perfect distraction for the US, who had been pivoting to Asia. They also see the benefit in putting more ties on Russia and getting more concessions out of them going forward.
The only reason Russia has any status on the global stage is because of their nuclear armament. Putin is blustering because his popularity at home with the Russian people is dependent on keeping their country in the global news cycle. There is a lot of nationalistic pride among the Russian people and they miss being a superpower. If Russia’s prominence were to fall to their real economic relevance, the Russian people would ditch Putin in a second and find some other demagogue to take his place.
For Putin to invade Ukraine now, he would need certainty that China would have their back against the Western nations. And if that were the case, then all bets would be off…I personally don’t think China’s got enough at stake with Russia to back them in this play with Ukraine.
Hell, China might help goad Russia to invade then leave them to hang in the breeze because that might benefit China.
China will not oppose Russia. Remember that China has its own territorial designs on Taiwan and the South China Sea. If they side against Russia in the Ukraine matter, they can expect Russia to side against them when the time comes. Also, Chinese opposition to Russian expansion would make it easier for other countries to oppose Chinese expansion.
Xi Jinping is watching the Ukraine situation. How the rest of the world responds will affect his own plans.
I don’t see what would be the benefit…but, of course, a lot of what the CCP does is, to me irrational, so I wouldn’t be surprised. That said, Russia is their only real heavyweight ally…sort of kind of. Look at the other countries that align with China and you’ll see they are pretty weak, and not all that fond of China, but more dislike the US (sort of the same way Russia does).
They like money. They also need a distraction for the US, which is perfect from their perspective. And ‘back’ is nebulous…my WAG is that IF Russia pulls the trigger, the backing the CCP will give them will simply be economic and political support. The economic parts are already going in place in fact, as there is a big, juicy new agreement for new energy pipelines and the like between China and Russia. China will also probably help them with their short-term economic woes when/if the EU sanctions Russia over the invasion and Germany cancels or curtails Nord Stream II (assuming they do).
If they did do that my guess would be a perception that whatever weakens/destabilizes other nations would be to China’s benefit. Making nice with Putin distracts/weakens the US. Goading Russia to invade then leaving them to hang in the breeze weakens Russia. Rinse and repeat.
Exactly. I’m sure this was all part of Xi’s calculation with the recent meeting between himself and Putin and their joint statements and agreements. There is no way that China is going to oppose whatever Russia decides to do.
What will be interesting in all of this is…what will India do? One of their main allies and partners has always been Russia, and they continue to get a lot of their most advanced weapons from Russia. They are also close politically. That said, China has increasingly become a threat. And the US has become more of an…well, not ally, but partner maybe. They seem to be sitting this one out, so far, but the time will come when India has to make a choice…stick with Russia and perhaps compromise with China (and Pakistan), or move more into the western/US sphere.