I know nothing about sports, but …
I feel like Putin is leading off from first base in an effort to let the other team, and – moreso – his fans (Russian citizens) know that he’s prepared to steal second base.
And Ukraine probably looks like the best risk/reward equation.
But my concern is that it’s mostly a political/nationalism play – something the Soviet Union survived on for decades.
Very little else alloyed Nazi Germany like the renewed sense of nationalism of a dog badly beaten in WWI. Giving everybody a common enemy can solidify fractured segments of Russian society, create the famous Bush 43 “you’re either with us or you’re with the terrorists” sense of ultranationalism, squash the dissent that so rankles Putin (if not actually threatening his rule), and allow the Russian equivalent of Emergency Powers (a/ka: if you thought I was robbing you blind before, …).
The question is how far toward that next base he has to go before he sees turning back as no longer being an option. How can we make the risk intolerable for the perceived reward ?
I’d be for doing nearly whatever I could to bolster the Ukraine’s ability to defend itself and ensure that the risk/reward looks worse and worse for Putin.
I do remember that Russia has been more and more food INdependent over the last decade. Finding other places to tighten the screws may be difficult, but – in conjunction with other nations – may be critical.