# Russia - Ukraine: end of war predictions **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [May 11, 2026, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-ukraine-end-of-war-predictions/1030002 "2026-05-11T16:30:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2026, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-ukraine-end-of-war-predictions/1030002/81 "2026-06-12T19:31:28Z")
AIUI, one of the main differences is that this is a war where both sides hold no genuine advantage over the other. It’s not like the USA vs Iran, for instance, where America _could_ wipe out all of Iran’s non-drone military capability but simply lacks the political will and desire to really do so. Russia genuinely lacks air superiority over Ukraine, neither side has much in the way of true long-range strike (although Ukraine’s making some missiles that may soon hit Moscow,) both sides have taken severe-enough manpower losses that they have to be careful about how they budget out their walking lives on legs, neither side has tons of money, Russian artillery lacks the reach to hit across the 30-50km wide no-man’s land created by the drone threat, and so in the face of such a quagmire, cheap plentiful drones are the only thing that are of much use. ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2026, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-ukraine-end-of-war-predictions/1030002/82 "2026-06-12T21:47:58Z")
It’s not just an issue of political will. It’s lack of political objective. Iran has effectively blockaded 1/5 of the worlds oil with inexpensive mines and drones. What “victory” does America achieve by wiping out Iran’s second rate air and ground forces? ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2026, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-ukraine-end-of-war-predictions/1030002/83 "2026-06-12T22:24:53Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > AIUI, one of the main differences is that this is a war where both sides hold no genuine advantage over the other. It’s not like the USA vs Iran, for instance, where America _could_ wipe out all of Iran’s non-drone military capability but simply lacks the political will and desire to really do so. Russia genuinely lacks air superiority over Ukraine, However, Russia thought it had massive military superiority. Putin badly misjudged his own military (badly damaged thru decades of corruption), Zelenskyy’s Churchill-like resistance, and the assistance of the nations not wanting a return of the Russian empire. Putin originally hoped for all of Ukraine, now he is hoping for Crimea and a couple small slices. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2026, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-ukraine-end-of-war-predictions/1030002/84 "2026-06-12T22:25:48Z")
The (nutso) political objective was regime change. The Iranian stranglehold on Hormuz can (not “will”) end if there is thorough regime change. But probably not unless. The US once again walked into a situation assuming everything would go their way with no plan for what if it did not. Of course the moron in chief insisted that no such planning take place. And here we are, marooned on the spike of his ego. Like a post turtle. A very expensive post turtle. ---
**Author:** ![Xocomil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xocomil/32/14927_2.png) [@Xocomil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Xocomil)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2026, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-ukraine-end-of-war-predictions/1030002/85 "2026-06-12T22:30:28Z")
> [@Cardigan](#): > > Trump’s decision to basically cut most aid to Ukraine Trump has twice delayed delivery. That’s the extent of the cuts. No new aid has been approved but it continues to be delivered. > [@Velocity](#): > > America could wipe out all of Iran’s non-drone military capability Iran isn’t using the type of minuscule suicide drones that Ukraine uses. They’re manufacturing drones with ranges of more than 1,000 km and the capability to carry hundreds of pounds of bombs. If the US can’t destroy Iran’s capabilities of making those drones, then they can’t completely destroy their ability to make munitions of similar capability and complexity. If you look at the lists below, you’ll realize that Ukraine’s drones are toys compared to Iran’s drones. > **[Unmanned aerial vehicles in the Iranian military](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unmanned_aerial_vehicles_in_the_Iranian_military)** > > In the mid-1980s, Iran became interested in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Iranians have since began manufacturing (UAVs). As an attack munition rather than intelligence, surveillance, or reconnaissance (ISR) platform, the first generation Ababil appears to have been deployed during the Iran–Iraq War. Iran's Shahed drones have been actively utilized by Russian forces in the Russo-Ukrainian war and by Iranian forces in the 2026 Iran war. In response to their effectiveness, Ukraine created it Ir... > **[Category:Unmanned aerial vehicles of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Unmanned_aerial_vehicles_of_Ukraine)** > > This category has the following 2 subcategories, out of 2 total. > The following 8 pages are in this category, out of 8 total. This list may not reflect recent changes. ---
**Author:** ![Xocomil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xocomil/32/14927_2.png) [@Xocomil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Xocomil)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2026, 4:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-ukraine-end-of-war-predictions/1030002/86 "2026-06-16T04:58:57Z")
It seems that Russian defeat is inevitable if sufficient European support is maintained for sufficient time. It’s been four and a half years. How much longer can Russia hold on? Can they go another four and a half years. Will Europe be willing and able to continue to provide that level of support for that length of time? For those suggesting NATO escalation, what of China? If NATO directly enters the war absent obvious escalation from Russia, might China begin to provide open support to Russia? Ukraine’s ability to fight the war hinges not just on the aid that they’re receiving but also to the isolation that Russia is experiencing. That means that open Chinese support Russia might simply be buying Russian oil and gas and lots of it. If China leads, then maybe India follows. Russia thought that their military superiority was obvious and their victory inevitable. Will NATO make the same mistake? ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2026, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-ukraine-end-of-war-predictions/1030002/87 "2026-06-16T18:17:35Z")
> [@Xocomil](#): > > It seems that Russian defeat is inevitable if sufficient European support is maintained for sufficient time. It’s been four and a half years. How much longer can Russia hold on? Putin is hoping for a negotiated peace at this point in time, one which will give him parts of Ukraine. ---
**Author:** ![Xocomil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xocomil/32/14927_2.png) [@Xocomil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Xocomil)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2026, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-ukraine-end-of-war-predictions/1030002/88 "2026-06-20T00:38:28Z")
I think that a negotiated peace that allows Russia to keep parts of Ukraine was the plan from the beginning. As the war has gone on the piece of Ukraine that Russia will be able to keep has continually decreased in size but they still have a whole hell of a lot of leverage in that department. More broadly, this hasn’t been the completely lopsided affair implied by most of the posts regarding the conflict. The fact is that the population of Ukraine has decreases by 25% and the vast majority of those that left will never return. The majority of those that left and won’t return are women and children. As the war continues more people will leave and fewer of those that leave will return. The war has also been hell on the Ukrainian economy. Although it’s growing slowly, it’s still far smaller than it was before the invasion. If after it’s all said and done, Ukraine joins the EU and NATO but loses Crimea and is severely weakened for a generation, I think Putin will see it as a victory. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2026, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-ukraine-end-of-war-predictions/1030002/89 "2026-06-20T00:52:22Z")
> [@Xocomil](#): > > I think that a negotiated peace that allows Russia to keep parts of Ukraine was the plan from the beginning. As the war has gone on the piece of Ukraine that Russia will be able to keep has continually decreased in size but they still have a whole hell of a lot of leverage in that department. > > More broadly, this hasn’t been the completely lopsided affair implied by most of the posts regarding the conflict. I think Putin wants or wanted to recreate the Russian Empire, which would include all of Ukraine. But yeah, the war has been harder on Ukraine than Russia. It is just that Russia was considered to be a first class world power, and would walk over Ukraine- but it has been over six years, and Russian military might is no longer. Russia’s army is reduced to using WW2 period tanks. Ukraine is hitting targets deep into Russia. Yes, I think that since Russia took Crimea in 2014, that area is gone- Ukraine aint getting it back. But how much other territory? Maybe, if lucky- none. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2026, 4:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-ukraine-end-of-war-predictions/1030002/90 "2026-06-20T04:11:51Z")
> [@Xocomil](#): > > I think that a negotiated peace that allows Russia to keep parts of Ukraine was the plan from the beginning. No, the plan was to take the whole thing and genocide the local population to the point that the identity and culture of “Ukraine” no longer existed. Russia opened with an attempt at a “blitzkrieg” attack that would totally overrun Ukraine, and they showed up with lists of teachers and such to target for killing. The problem with a peace that lets them keep part of Ukraine is that it encourages them to try again. They’ve been doing that sort of “salami slicing” for many years, it’s the present all-out attack that’s the aberration. ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2026, 6:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-ukraine-end-of-war-predictions/1030002/91 "2026-06-20T06:54:55Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Yes, I think that since Russia took Crimea in 2014, that area is gone- Ukraine aint getting it back. Ehh, I generally thought that was the case back in 2014, but today not so much. If nothing else, Ukraine has been cutting off supply to Crimea very steadily recently. I won’t theorize how they’re going to land troops there to take it back, but there seems to be some sort of plan going on. ---
**Author:** ![Xocomil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xocomil/32/14927_2.png) [@Xocomil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Xocomil)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2026, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-ukraine-end-of-war-predictions/1030002/92 "2026-06-21T04:19:31Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > the plan was to take the whole thing and genocide the local population to the point that the identity and culture of “Ukraine” no longer existed. No, but I misspoke. We know what Russia’s plan was. They were planning to decapitate the the government in Kyiv, cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea, and sue for peace from a position of overwhelming leverage in the pursuit of their goal of keeping Ukraine firmly within the Russian sphere of influence. Russia knew that it didn’t actually have the capacity to, as you said, take the whole thing. Hence the planned destruction of Ukrainian identity. Genocide was a means to an end, not an end in itself. At least for Russian leadership. For the thugs on the ground, atrocity is its own reward, I’m sure. If Russia had the same military on the ground that it had on paper–we might call it the Putin Corollary to Rumsfeld’s Law–then Zelensky might’ve needed a mortician, not ammunition. Russia doesn’t appear as foolish in such a scenario and God knows what additional horror Ukraine suffers. Few people could foresee Russia’s incompetence. Yet even with their breathtaking incompetence they’ve been able to take and hold substantial Ukrainian territory. What Russia desperately wants is to prevent Ukraine from becoming part of the broader European community. I can more easily see Ukraine losing territory than it staying beholden to Russia. In the long run, Russia is simply unable to win, regardless of what happens to Ukraine’s territorial integrity. We know one thing for certain: Russia is going to make it hurt. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2026, 4:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-ukraine-end-of-war-predictions/1030002/93 "2026-06-21T04:57:04Z")
Not only should the West do its best to integrate Ukraine into the EU, but there also needs to be a long 20-year long project to make Belarus the new Ukraine and get Belarus into the EU - and maybe even into NATO. Peeling it away from Russia’s grasp would be the ultimate indignity to Moscow (and prize to the West.) And something would need to be done to make Kaliningrad progressively less and less Russian. Back to the topic at hand, one difficulty in bringing this war to a close is that Russian governance is often deficient in logical concepts of pros vs. cons, gains vs. losses, tradeoffs, and whatnot. It can be difficult to negotiate with a regime that doesn’t grasp the difference between a victory, a Pyrrhic victory, and a defeat. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2026, 5:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-ukraine-end-of-war-predictions/1030002/94 "2026-06-21T05:46:25Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Back to the topic at hand, one difficulty in bringing this war to a close is that Russian governance is often deficient in logical concepts of pros vs. cons, gains vs. losses, tradeoffs, and whatnot. It can be difficult to negotiate with a regime that doesn’t grasp the difference between a victory, a Pyrrhic victory, and a defeat. And their insistence on fighting this war like it’s a existential one for Russia’s survival instead of a land grab means that whatever happens, the result will be a Pyrrhic one. Russia has done itself a tremendous amount of damage, and that’s not going away. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2026, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-ukraine-end-of-war-predictions/1030002/95 "2026-06-21T18:48:33Z")
Speaking of Crimea- [https://www.npr.org/2026/06/21/g-s1-129200/ukrainian-attacks-russia-crimea-halt-gas-sales](https://www.npr.org/2026/06/21/g-s1-129200/ukrainian-attacks-russia-crimea-halt-gas-sales) > Officials in Russia-occupied Crimea suspended civilian gasoline sales Sunday as Ukraine ramped up attacks on fuel supplies on the Black Sea peninsula. > Gov. Sergey Aksyonov, the Kremlin-appointed head of Crimea, said that overnight Ukrainian strikes killed four people and wounded 28 others. He did not specify the target of the attack. > > He later wrote on social media that local gas stations would halt all sales to non-state companies and individuals for an undefined period. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-ukraine-end-of-war-predictions/1030002.md?page=4)