# Russia - Ukraine - What's the end-game? **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [March 19, 2022, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-ukraine-whats-the-end-game/961355 "2022-03-19T18:52:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 13\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2022, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-ukraine-whats-the-end-game/961355/21 "2022-03-29T03:55:53Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Not that I’m advocating such a split. But if a split must be done, it’s the most logical geographical boundary. How about 20 km west of Moscow? Everything to the west of that line will be Ukraine. Works for me. ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2022, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-ukraine-whats-the-end-game/961355/22 "2022-03-29T03:56:17Z")
Heh, it’s a week old, but this is the place where I went “Ehh, your powers of prediction seem to be weak.” > [@](#): > > I don’t believe he needs to do more than make threats, given that the conventional war is likely to turn in his favor. I still don’t see a situation where Russia can win a conventional war in Ukraine and hold any of it. I didn’t see it before the invasion, and it seems even less likely now. If he’d gone all in on a land bridge to Crimea in the beginning, he might have had enough to do it (but that seems unlikely considering the current situation). That looks doubtful now. All Putin can do is get a bunch of Russians and Ukrainians (and maybe more) killed. He should have started withdrawing several yesterdays ago. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2022, 5:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-ukraine-whats-the-end-game/961355/23 "2022-03-29T05:06:08Z")
> [@scabpicker](#): > > All Putin can do is get a bunch of Russians and Ukrainians (and maybe more) killed. He should have started withdrawing several yesterdays ago. Agreed he should have. But at this point he still seems to think that if he just kills enough Ukraine civilians, the west will just give up and give him all of Ukraine. I think we need to absolutely crush his economic engine. I’d like to see all of Europe do everything they can to get away from Russian energy imports. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2022, 6:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-ukraine-whats-the-end-game/961355/24 "2022-03-29T06:08:36Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > The OP’s list of outcomes is incomplete. Additional options: > > - complete destruction of Ukrainian cities, with residents either dead or fled and Ukraine functionally ceases to be an independent nation. > > - complete destruction of Ukrainian cities, with all citizens either fled or taken prisoner/killed and removed from the land, to be replaced by immigrants from Russia. This, too, destroys Ukraine as an independent nation. Has that happened in modern times, a nation gets bombed so much the population just leaves and goes elsewhere? My understanding is that even after the destruction of WW2, people still rebuilt their nations from rubble. ---
**Author:** ![Spoons](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spoons/32/3141_2.png) [@Spoons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoons)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2022, 6:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-ukraine-whats-the-end-game/961355/25 "2022-03-29T06:22:27Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > But at this point he still seems to think that if he just kills enough Ukraine civilians, the west will just give up and give him all of Ukraine. And destroys enough infrastructure, buildings, and so on, as to make Ukraine unliveable, thus forcing Ukrainians to leave. I’m reminded of the quote from an American Army official, during the Vietnam War, who said, “We had to destroy the village in order to save it.” If the Russians consider flattening Ukrainian cities “saving them,” then I wonder what they plan to do with flattened cities, nobody to occupy them, broken infrastructure, and so on. “Hurray, we saved Mariupol by flattening it!” Okay, but saved it from what? And how expensive, in time and money, will it be for you to rebuild it if you eventually gain occupation? ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2022, 11:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-ukraine-whats-the-end-game/961355/26 "2022-03-29T11:32:02Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Has that happened in modern times, a nation gets bombed so much the population just leaves and goes elsewhere? My understanding is that even after the destruction of WW2, people still rebuilt their nations from rubble. Not a nation, but according to an Estonian internet-acquaintance of mine the town of Narva was leveled by the Soviet air force in 1944 (only three original buildings remain), the original inhabitants dead or fled (and those that fled forbidden to return by the Soviet government), and was entirely rebuilt and repopulated by Russian immigrants. [Other sources support this as well.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narva#20th_century) So while _entire nations_ have not had that happen in the 20th or 21st Century it certainly can and has happened on a smaller level. Combine genocide and forced relocation with sending in new settlers it’s certainly possible. Especially on a city scale, perhaps on an “oblast” level. The Soviets happily forcibly relocated tens of thousands of people, built cities from scratch and so forth. The Russians certainly might have a go at it. ---
**Author:** ![velomont](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/8491ac/32.png) [@velomont](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/velomont)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2022, 12:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-ukraine-whats-the-end-game/961355/27 "2022-03-29T12:29:57Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Has that happened in modern times, a nation gets bombed so much the population just leaves and goes elsewhere? My understanding is that even after the destruction of WW2, people still rebuilt their nations from rubble. My dad was a C-47 pilot towards the end of WW II and was in Berlin and Cologne shortly after VE day for awhile. I remember him mentioning that he was surprised that they didn’t just rebuild their cities in entirely new locations. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2022, 12:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-ukraine-whats-the-end-game/961355/28 "2022-03-29T12:33:41Z")
Compare the German city of Königsberg to the Russian city of Kaliningrad. Majority German population pre-WWII; majority Russian population post-WWII. Soviets just deported the surviving Germans to East Germany and settled with Russians. > **[Königsberg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%B6nigsberg)** > > Pages for logged out editors learn more > > > Königsberg (German: \[ˈkøːnɪçsbɛʁk\] (listen), lit. 'King's hill') was the historic German and Prussian name of the city that is now Kaliningrad, Russia. > Königsberg was founded in 1255 on the site of the small Old Prussian settlement Twangste by the Teutonic Knights during the Northern Crusades, and was named in honour of King Ottokar II of Bohemia. A Baltic port city, it successively became the capital of the State of the Teutonic Order, the Du... > **[Kaliningrad](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaliningrad)** > > Pages for logged out editors learn more > > > > Kaliningrad (/kəˈlɪnɪnɡræd/ kə-LIN-in-grad; Russian: Калининград, IPA: \[kəlʲɪnʲɪnˈɡrat\]), until 1946 known as Königsberg (German pronunciation: \[ˈkøːnɪçsbɛʁk\]; Russian: Кёнигсберг, tr. Kyonigsberg, IPA: \[ˈkʲɵnʲɪɡzbɛrk\]; Russian: Короле́вец, tr. Korolevets), is the largest city and administrative centre of Kaliningrad Oblast, a Russian semi-exclave between Lithuania and Poland. The city sits about 663 kilometres (412 mi) west from mainland Russi... ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2022, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-ukraine-whats-the-end-game/961355/29 "2022-03-29T14:18:45Z")
> [@Spoons](#): > > And how expensive, in time and money, will it be for you to rebuild it if you eventually gain occupation? At this point they are not even planning occupation IMO. They are just wrecking infrastructure and killing civilians as punishment for daring to oppose them. ---
**Author:** ![justdoit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/e56c9b/32.png) [@justdoit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/justdoit)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2022, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-ukraine-whats-the-end-game/961355/30 "2022-03-29T14:59:43Z")
Should the North have let the South leave the USA peacefully in the 1860’s? Should it let states like Texas leave the USA now if they want to ? There’s nothing wrong with letting states, who very much want to, leave the USA. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2022, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-ukraine-whats-the-end-game/961355/31 "2022-03-29T15:01:30Z")
Are you playing devil’s advocate or do you actually advocating this position? ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2022, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-ukraine-whats-the-end-game/961355/32 "2022-03-29T17:53:43Z")
Your repeated posts on this theme are noted, and dutifully ignored. Thank you for your attempt to derail the thread. ---
**Author:** ![velomont](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/8491ac/32.png) [@velomont](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/velomont)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2022, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-ukraine-whats-the-end-game/961355/33 "2022-03-31T21:43:01Z")
At a gut level, notwithstanding the fact that most Russians are probably either ignorant of what’s really happening or in no position to control anything, a nasty part of me thinks that Russia deserves to have a modern version of the Morgenthau plan inflicted upon them. In reality, however, if this ends in the West’s favour we’ll probably have to offer to both Ukraine and Russia some sort of Marshall plan. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-ukraine-whats-the-end-game/961355.md?page=1)